21 replies to this topic

[salsabob]

IF there are some kind of controlling 40 & 80 year cycles, then it seems that any governmental efforts to thwart them might be akin to revoking Daylight Savings Time so that the Sun won't be so hot.

More contemporary long-wave practitioners that incorporate Kondratieff would tell you that government intervention, while far far from a cure-all, is actually expected, natural, and necessary as one element to reset the cycle. In other words, without the gov't intervention (among other things) life would get so bad during the "Winter" or the "Fourth Turning Crisis" that there would be no "Spring" or "First Turning."

-- that's why these practitioners can look on World War 2 with fondness as actually the better, less stressful, road taken.

Just to note: for this 4T to come to a good ending, probably more important than gov't intervention is for most of us culture-war baby boomers to be eased out of any positions of authority in just about any walks of life.

[IYB]

IF there are some kind of controlling 40 & 80 year cycles, then it seems that any governmental efforts to thwart them might be akin to revoking Daylight Savings Time so that the Sun won't be so hot.

Great observation, and so true. But you are probably being too easy on the politicos, as more often than not, the "remedy" has huge unitended consequences that only make things much worse- as for example, cranking the credit spigots wide open in response to the dot.com bust and recession of 2001-2, which enormously exacerbated the current disaster. Who knows what the multi-trillian dollar "remedy" will lead to?

I absolutely agree with his 20 year cycles, and in fact have used them as part of my timing models for several decades also. I have always referred to these cycles as the secular bull and secular bear cycles, which provide the backdrop for the cyclical bull and bear markets. I did find his alternating mild-severe cycle idea instructive- though knowing that the next secular bear will be relatively mild compared to this one probably won't matter a whole lot to me- since that will be somewhere out around 2040-2050.

Thanks, RD. Good stuff.

[Rogerdodger]

that's why these practitioners can look on World War 2 with fondness as actually the better, less stressful, road taken.

Double

Just to note: for this 4T to come to a good ending, probably more important than gov't intervention is for most of us culture-war baby boomers to be eased out of any positions of authority in just about any walks of life.

My theory is that authority of any kind while (sometimes) needed, is rife with ineptitude, abuse and corruption.

John Staussels had a great show on this a few months ago.
20/20 - Politically Incorrect Guide To Politics...

You gotta see this: LINK

People in New Orleans wanted to put their house back into liveable condition or totally rebuild.
It took the clerk 10 minutes just to tell him all of the requirements needed.

Working around the government, charities were able to succeed in spite of the government.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 February 2009 - 04:03 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

no, i don't want/need to read the link.

Then why ask how?

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 February 2009 - 04:15 PM.

[Russ]

no, i don't want/need to read the link.

all kinds of people have made predictions like that and now claim they were right.

2008 - 40 = 1968, not such a bad year

2008 - 80 = 1928, a boom year

if you want to go back to the 1800's there were enough crashes and panics and financial institution collapses to fit any cycle, LOL.

Humble1,

I think you are taking the cycle too literally: 1929 just one year later was the peak in the markets and the start of the great depression.

1968 was just before the major recession that bottomed in 1974. Your not wanting to even read the article is similar to your attitude when I told you in early January that the major market index kept bumping up against resistance and that it showed momentum was dying in the market, your response then was the you didn't give a rats {bleeeep} what xmi was doing. You are obviously a well read person but you have an odd attitude: 'Don't confuse me with the facts my mind is made up'.

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks to the VIDKID for this gotta see: K-wave

Attached Thumbnails

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Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 February 2009 - 10:36 PM.

[humble1]

russ: i have read tons of stuff on cycles. i have a whole bookshelf full of cycles going back to the greeks and the babylonians. no, i don't want to read terry laundry's view of cycles and i'm not going to and no one can make me. LOL! yes, there is a 20 and a 60 and a 120; there is an 8, an 11, a 19; the greeks had those and the fascinating callippic; there are the gann cycles; there is the cycle of 9's, the 36 and the 72: some of these are chained and some unchained. there is the saros and the inex and the synodic and the ecliptic and the solar. there is the mcminn 56 year and the k-wave and more. but there is NO 40/80 year cycle, with an 80 year intensification! i could provide you with 100 links and say: go read them. p.s. and the k-wave is not even CLOSE to a 40 or 80.

Edited by humble1, 15 February 2009 - 10:09 PM.

[linrom1]

russ:

i have read tons of stuff on cycles. i have a whole bookshelf full of cycles going back to the greeks and the babylonians. no, i don't want to read terry laundry's view of cycles and i'm not going to and no one can make me.

LOL!

yes, there is a 20 and a 60 and a 120; there is an 8, an 11, a 19; the greeks had those and the fascinating callippic; there are the gann cycles; there is the cycle of 9's, the 36 and the 72: some of these are chained and some unchained. there is the saros and the inex and the synodic and the ecliptic and the solar. there is the mcminn 56 year and the k-wave and more.

but there is NO 40/80 year cycle, with an 80 year intensification!

i could provide you with 100 links and say: go read them.


p.s. and the k-wave is not even CLOSE to a 40 or 80.

With all those cycles, you failed to mention the one that matters: bank credit and debt cycle. This trumps ALL.

[humble1]

linrom1: well, i did say "more". i could have added the medici and the juglar and the kitchin and the inventory ... LOL. please elaborate on which bank/credit cycles you like and the timing.

[linrom1]

linrom1:

well, i did say "more". i could have added the medici and the juglar and the kitchin and the inventory ... LOL.

please elaborate on which bank/credit cycles you like and the timing.

Last time it peaked in 1933 and bottomed in early 1940s. This cycle might have peaked last quarter?