20 replies to this topic

[NAV]

The IT bottom is in or a LT bottom is in. A monster rally is in cards. Da_cheif, Prechter a.k.a megabulls, megabears and even pigs have joined the bullish bandwagon. I have learn't a long ago, not to call the beginning of a bull market or a bear market, until you see a multiday pullback which holds above the prior lows/highs and then provides a continuation signal. The arguments are interesting. We have the largest 4 weeks rally since 1933. Now should we get excited about it ? Hmmmm...we have the fastest largest decline since the 1929. But no one is worried about it. But a 3 week rally has everyone excited. There is no comparison between the 30s and today. Cuz that was a 80+% decline. There was nothing more to decline. There was massive disinterest in stocks. There was the capitulation of a generation. Everyone were cleaned out, period !. So just no comparison between now and 30s whatsover. The only thing comparable to is the 70s. But given that we have a plunge which is faster and larger than 70s, this is something more diabolic than the 70s. Now we are entering the worst cyclical phase of this 9 month cycle. Let's see if can hold above the March lows. My opinion still is, that we won't ! We'll see...

Edited by NAV, 05 April 2009 - 12:34 PM.

[goldswinger]

To me it is all about the Dollar, if it moves back up to touch is recent highs, we will crash back to at least the March lows, otherwise we are off to the races as everything else will inflate as the Dollar deflates.......Watch that greenback, it holds the key....! Goldswinger.

[tomterrific14]

The IT bottom is in or a LT bottom is in. A monster rally is in cards. Da_cheif, Prechter a.k.a megabulls, megabears and even pigs have joined the bullish bandwagon. I have learn't a long ago, not to call the beginning of a bull market or a bear market, until you see a multiday pullback which holds above the prior lows/highs and then provides a continuation signal. The arguments are interesting. We have the largest 4 weeks rally since 1933. Now should we get excited about it ? Hmmmm...we have the fastest largest decline since the 1929. But no one is worried about it. But a 3 week rally has everyone excited. There is no comparison between the 30s and today. Cuz that was a 80+% decline. There was nothing more to decline. There was massive disinterest in stocks. There was the capitulation of a generation. Everyone were cleaned out, period !. So just no comparison between now and 30s whatsover. The only thing comparable to is the 70s. But given that we have a plunge which is faster and larger than 70s, this is something more diabolic than the 70s. Now we are entering the worst cyclical phase of this 9 month cycle. Let's see if can hold above the March lows. My opinion still is, that we won't ! We'll see...

I'm currently flat, after having bought in at the Mar low, and sold too soon afterwards...and am not on either a bull or bear bandwagon...though am more likely to short SPX when internal momentum wanes, ala, Seven Sentinals and the like...preferably above 860 and ideally short of the Jan Highs of 943. I do believe a Wave 5 is ahead of us when the next IT sell signal is given....I suspect that will be given by a non-confirmation between the Dow Industrials and Transports, either when, or if, the Industrials break the Feb highs and Transports fail to confirm bettering their Feb highs, or alternatively, Industrials bettering their Jan high and Transports failing to better their Jan highs.

If the market were to top out here or slightly higher and give back 1/3 to 2/3rds of the current rally, then both Averages better this current rally top, I would be a buyer....for SPX 1000+.....on a 1/3 to 2/3 retracement of the current rally, I'd try to buy with close stops for short term bounces....buy the dip, sell the rip, so to speak.

[ed rader]

The IT bottom is in or a LT bottom is in. A monster rally is in cards. Da_cheif, Prechter a.k.a megabulls, megabears and even pigs have joined the bullish bandwagon. I have learn't a long ago, not to call the beginning of a bull market or a bear market, until you see a multiday pullback which holds above the prior lows/highs and then provides a continuation signal. The arguments are interesting. We have the largest 4 weeks rally since 1933. Now should we get excited about it ? Hmmmm...we have the fastest largest decline since the 1929. But no one is worried about it. But a 3 week rally has everyone excited. There is no comparison between the 30s and today. Cuz that was a 80+% decline. There was nothing more to decline. There was massive disinterest in stocks. There was the capitulation of a generation. Everyone were cleaned out, period !. So just no comparison between now and 30s whatsover. The only thing comparable to is the 70s. But given that we have a plunge which is faster and larger than 70s, this is something more diabolic than the 70s. Now we are entering the worst cyclical phase of this 9 month cycle. Let's see if can hold above the March lows. My opinion still is, that we won't ! We'll see...

just go back to 2000 and you'll recall we had some huge BM rallies that were very convincing. the final bottom will be marked by apathy. i remember maria b. called the final bottom on CNBC (after many false starts) and said that buying would begin next week and it did. of course for quite awhile in 03 many were skeptical, including me .

i'm pretty sure the bear market in RE has a ways to go -- 1999 levels or thereabouts and i still look for the nasdaq to at least test the 02 lows. we were talking about a 2010 recovery the other night but with the balloning deficit i think that might even be too optimistic.

ed rader

[Rogerdodger]

NAV, The TSP bull/bear ratio is now the highest it's been in over a year.
(When it was at SPX 1500 and you know who was long!)
The bottom MUST be in.
That many can't be wrong...again.
It's another consensus!

04/06/09 - 04/10/09 49% 35% 1.40

Edited by Rogerdodger, 05 April 2009 - 01:10 PM.

[NAV]

NAV, The TSP bull/bear ratio is now the highest it's been in over a year.
(When it was at SPX 1500 and you know who was long!)
The bottom MUST be in.
That many can't be wrong...again.
It's another consensus!

04/06/09 - 04/10/09 49% 35% 1.40

All the absconding bulls are back, gracing their presence on the board. Now only if i can see a post from Vector !

[Russ]

Martin Armstrong has compared the market's decline to the fall of the Roman Empire, he says the wave form is not just a quick panic down and then back up like others, even 1929, this one is like a slow waterfall, like the destruction of a civilization. Time will tell whether he or superbull is correct.

[zoropb]

The IT bottom is in or a LT bottom is in. A monster rally is in cards. Da_cheif, Prechter a.k.a megabulls, megabears and even pigs have joined the bullish bandwagon. I have learn't a long ago, not to call the beginning of a bull market or a bear market, until you see a multiday pullback which holds above the prior lows/highs and then provides a continuation signal. The arguments are interesting. We have the largest 4 weeks rally since 1933. Now should we get excited about it ? Hmmmm...we have the fastest largest decline since the 1929. But no one is worried about it. But a 3 week rally has everyone excited. There is no comparison between the 30s and today. Cuz that was a 80+% decline. There was nothing more to decline. There was massive disinterest in stocks. There was the capitulation of a generation. Everyone were cleaned out, period !. So just no comparison between now and 30s whatsover. The only thing comparable to is the 70s. But given that we have a plunge which is faster and larger than 70s, this is something more diabolic than the 70s. Now we are entering the worst cyclical phase of this 9 month cycle. Let's see if can hold above the March lows. My opinion still is, that we won't ! We'll see...

Nav with all due respect the only similarities of this market that one can compare it to is the 30's and Japan. The only difference so far is time to play out the really bad part.

What other market dropped below 50%? What rally patterns off a low has been close to this 4 week rally the 29 4 weeker run and the 33? What balance sheet damage even comes close to our current time the 30's which were way better than now. What other valuation extreme exceeded the 29 top the 2000'.
I find it rather amusing that some folks want to keep comparing this to anything less than than the 30's or Japan. We are far worse in all balance sheet categories than both those times. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

Show me anything to invalidate this and I will be happy to retract this statement.

Nav I totally agree with you the lows will be taken out either by print or the dollar going to half and we print close to the low again but either way it will show an SPX valuation in current dollars of 350 or less.
I am saying this as I did back in 02-03 when i said we would take out the 02 lows down the road some time.
Nav we as traders I know do not give a rats {bleeeep} because we are shorter term guys but hey it is Sunday and we got to sling a few cow chips around to pass the time

Z

Edited by zoropb, 05 April 2009 - 01:20 PM.

[NAV]

The IT bottom is in or a LT bottom is in. A monster rally is in cards. Da_cheif, Prechter a.k.a megabulls, megabears and even pigs have joined the bullish bandwagon. I have learn't a long ago, not to call the beginning of a bull market or a bear market, until you see a multiday pullback which holds above the prior lows/highs and then provides a continuation signal. The arguments are interesting. We have the largest 4 weeks rally since 1933. Now should we get excited about it ? Hmmmm...we have the fastest largest decline since the 1929. But no one is worried about it. But a 3 week rally has everyone excited. There is no comparison between the 30s and today. Cuz that was a 80+% decline. There was nothing more to decline. There was massive disinterest in stocks. There was the capitulation of a generation. Everyone were cleaned out, period !. So just no comparison between now and 30s whatsover. The only thing comparable to is the 70s. But given that we have a plunge which is faster and larger than 70s, this is something more diabolic than the 70s. Now we are entering the worst cyclical phase of this 9 month cycle. Let's see if can hold above the March lows. My opinion still is, that we won't ! We'll see...

Nav with all due respect the only similarities of this market that one can compare it to is the 30's and Japan. The only difference so far is time to play out the really bad part.

What other market dropped below 50%? What other market went up for 4 weeks like this but the 30's? What rally patterns off a low has been close to this 4 week rally the 29 4 weeker run and the 33? What balance sheet damage even comes close to our current time the 30's which were way better than now. What other valuation extreme exceeded the 29 top the 2000'.
I find it rather amusing that some folks want to keep comparing this to anything less than than the 30's or Japan. We are far worse in all balance sheet categories than both those times. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

Show me anything to invalidate this and I will be happy to retract this statement.


Z

But given that we have a plunge which is faster and larger than 70s, this is something more diabolic than the 70s.

You are preaching to the choir. Bigger than 70s, but not yet as big as 30s is what i mean't. So we are yet to reach the 30s magnitude to make a comparison to 30s. In other words how can you make a comparison to a market that has declined 50% to a market that had decline 80%, unless one is talking their book. Anyway, IMO, comparisons are just optical illusions.

[thespookyone]

Yea, we have a "mini consensus", cause I'm with you, LOL! Until we close above 872, I'm in the show me the money camp-although in the meantime I'll probably be trading both ways.