140 replies to this topic

[stanley]

Updates 08/28/2011

There is no confirmation the bull trend since March 6, 2009 has reversed. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement point 1102 [0.382| 667:1371] has been tested but there is no punching-through event. At most, the index has retraced slightly larger than the last ‘severe’ pull back observed in June/July, 2010.

03/06/09 0666.79
04/26/10 1219.80
07/01/10 1010.91 [0.378]

03/06/09 0666.79
05/02/11 1370.58
08/09/11 1101.54 [0.382]

Trend reversal criteria is subjective, Andre Gratian provided his criteria in his Market Turning Points, 08/28/11, he wrote: “The amount of distribution which took place between 5/02 and 7/22, have all the markings of a beginning bear market, but this will remain unconfirmed until we break below 1011.”

It is clear that the index Zigzags zone has moved from [1228-1310-1381] down to [1011-1176-1228]. In near term, the upward bounce may reach 1228-1236, strong overhead resistance in between 1258-1268. Based on King Wen’s sequence from prior post, The low marked on 08/09 (1101.54 ) has been assigned (tentatively) as the low in this sequence. There are 101 trading days from 03/06/11 to 08/09/11, coincidently, it is the same number from 02/05/10 to 07/01/10. The on going sequence suggested weak performing dates on 08/18, 08/31, and a possible secondary high near 09/08 +/- (Labor day 09/05). Bradley Turn dates are 08/30, 09/26, 10/12 .... The Fibonacci time zone ratio 1.786 is due on 09/27, 108 trading day cycle realigned on 05/02, the next one is due on 10/05. I see the conflicts but need time to sort out.

Since this writer is not a registered investment advisor, comments posted in this thread are for entertainment purposes only.

[stanley]

Aug 29 2011, 08:51 AM link to post #61
In near term, the upward bounce may reach 1228-1236, strong overhead resistance in between 1258-1268.
The ongoing sequence suggested weak performing dates on 08/18, 08/31, and a possible secondary high near 09/08 +/- (Labor day 09/05). Bradley Turn dates are 08/30, 09/26, 10/12 .... The Fibonacci time zone ratio 1.786 is due on 09/27, 108 trading day cycle is due on 10/05. I see the conflicts but need time to sort out.
King Wen’s sequence

On intraday 08/31, index hit 1230.71, then it reversed. So, the speculation on magnitude was right. However, the timing projection needs to be reconciled. To avoid unnecessary confusion, let me skip the IF-THEN-ELSE details. The key dates to watch are: 09/08, 09/21, 10/04, 10/25 (all based on King Wen's sequence); Bradley Turn dates are 08/30, 09/26, 10/12; The Fibonacci time zone ratio 1.786 is due on 09/27, 108 trading day cycle is due on 10/05

Sep 4 2010, 10:22 AM link to post #34
Be aware the Bradley Siderograph unique signature in 2011, one year before the long awaited storm zone 2012-2014”
Viewers may go over the Bradley Siderograph for the next 8 years and find out why 2011’s is unique.
2010
2011 2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017 2018

From the following chart, one of the unique structure is the 7 month long relative narrow Siderograph band. Perhaps, one may say that the Siderograph level is immaterial, the turn date is. The Siderograph is normalized annually, why the highest and lowest level roll off point, year after year without exceptions, has been highlighted as the important turning dates?


Recall DOW’s big gyration from 08/08 to 08/11
08/08 11433.93 10779.05 delta 654.88
08/09 11251.08 10588.05 delta 663.03
08/10 11227.92 10662.04 delta 565.88
08/11 11286.39 10729.85 delta 556.54
“The Dow had four consecutive days of 400-point swings after S&P downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating Aug. 5, the first time that happened in the Dow's 115-year history.” link
The Siderograph from 2013 to 2017 exhibits relative the same ‘pattern’ (May thru July shows an important roll off point), 2012 has an important turn date in March that year, only time will tell what that implies.

I updated older charts into the following two charts (numers unchaged). One for the near-to-middle term, one for the long term.





The Dar-Bottom number was posted back to 04/19//09. the original chart had been purged due to upload quota limit, I found another similar one that indicated the Dar-Bottom is around 460. If wave ‘C’ deploys the same wave length as wave ‘A’, then, wave ‘C’ will reach 462 (= 1371 – (1576-667)). It is about the averaged number back to 1993-1994. Is it a sign of Deflation or Inflation? Let it be.

Posted on: Apr 19 2009, 07:54 PM link to post 220 (membership required)
the steep slope follows the right "head" implies some consolidation period before index hit 450.

[stanley]

10/03/2011 Why do maple leaves change colour in the fall?

this poster is not a registered investment advisor, comments posted in this thread are for entertainment purposes only.

Recap:

(1)
06/26 – “a time window in between 06/15 to 08/05 may plot a low that can last one to two months” (link)
08/06 – “The termination of wave B? requires confirmation. One may use 1102 (0.382 1371-667) as a gauge” (link post #66)

The low marked on 08/09 has held up almost two months, not any more. Index plotted an intraday low 1098.92 on 10/03. Trend reversal confirmation has been granted.

(2)
08/12 – “1102 is the trend reversal confirmation point. However it is becoming clear that Bull cannot lose 1054, otherwise, a landslide will take place.[long term target 950]" (link post #94)

950 (940-972) was the tentative long term low target I made on 04/24/11.

(3) Index bounced off 1102 and revisited 1102, it forms an interesting pattern in this chart, deviated from a triangle, a wedge, not closer to a diagonal. Market has her own script.

The key dates in October to watch are:

10/04, 10/25 - King Wen's sequence
10/12, 10/28 - Bradley Turn date
10/05, - this is the 108 trading day cycle counting from 05/02

Latest King Wen’s sequence
Sep 13 2011, 11:44 AM


Sep 16 2011, 07:54 AM


For quite a while I thought King Wen’s Sequence has limitation on detecting short cycles. My assumption apparently is not true. here is a nice paper for your reference.
Title: The explanation of King Wen’s order of the 64 hexagrams. link: http://www.fourpilla...pdf/kingwen.pdf
by D.H.Van den Berghe


I speculate S&P may hit 1054-1086 before the end of October, even though 1017 cannot be ruled out. (chart) There is a Fibonacci cluster around 1014 ( somewhere around 1004-1017), we can do fine tuning as index approaching the window. Thereafter, a sizeable counter trend rally to challenge 1229-1236 again.

Dar-Bottom

For the long term Dar-bottom, I have a number of 462 (S&P500) which was based on an ideal E-wave structure, since the index did reach 1371, a 0.786 retracement from the all time high/low, so this high retracement put the ideal E-wave structure speculation in some kind doubt.

for an ideal case:
the wave will deploy a wave series in the structure of A-B-C, 5x3x5. If wave ‘C’ deploys the same wave length as wave ‘A’, then, wave ‘C’ will reach 462 (= 1371 – (1576-667)). It is about the averaged number back to year 1993-1994. Time length for the C wave could be 528,591,704 trading days. refer to the chart. Be cautious, the fact that wave ‘B’ roughly retraced 0.786 (actual 0.774, 0.786@1381) of wave ‘A’ suggests 5x3x5 might not fit, and there are different forms to deploy.
A 528 trading day from 05/02/2011 ( the day index marked an intraday high 1371) is around June/July 2013.

09/10


Here is another reference:
Title: Prepare for the Global Long Wave Extinction Event
By: David Knox Barker | Saturday, August 20, 2011
http://www.safehaven...xtinction-event
...... The next target in the long wave degrees of freedom radar is 7/28/2013 ....... The final phase of the global long wave collapse will radically change the global financial and political system forever. It will be change for the better. The worst years of this long wave winter season, which lie directly ahead, will provide the impetus and opportunity for global change on a scale heretofore unimagined.

In a Time not Far, Far Away

Mar 5 2011, 08:47 PM link , posted in IndexCalls, membership required

Part 1: Why should we preserve history?
Part 2: China Ghost Town
Part 3: A spectacular world-wide boom will arrive in our lifetime

The Persian Prince Pirooz

"Sometime around the year 670, a shining prince-- the son of the last Sassanid King-- arrived in the Tang capital (note). He was there to ask for protection from the Arab invaders who now occupied his country".
http://www.tangdynas...nce-pirooz.html
http://en.wikipedia....Sassanid_Empire

Note: Tang Dynasty June 18, 618 – June 1, 907, http://en.wikipedia....ki/Tang_Dynasty

Three Tang’s foreign affairs officials were discussing how to greet the foreign diplomatists, One came from the far side of the Silk road.......

http://www.history-o...p-of-tang.html#

[stanley]

---------------------------------------------------
Sep 4 2011, 08:57 PM
(The key dates in October to watch are:)

10/04, 10/25 - King Wen's sequence
10/12, 10/28 - Bradley Turn date
10/05, - this is the 108 trading day cycle counting from 05/02
---------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------
SilentOne Wednesday, October 05, 2011 2:45:19 PM
]$SPX Hurst 10 week cycle low

SilentOne Thursday, October 06, 2011 12:03:22 AM
charts: link
-------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------
08/12 – “1102 is the trend reversal confirmation point. However it is becoming clear that Bull cannot lose 1054, otherwise, a landslide will take place. [long term target 950]"
-------------------------------------------------------------

1053/1054 is an important transitional point, 0.5 [667:1440]


1371:1074 0.236 @ 1144, minimum requirement for a bounce
1231:1074 0.500 @ 1153, local bounce confirmed
1176 is a pivot
1231:1074 0.707 @ 1184 resistance zone 1184-1187
1371:1074 0.382 @ 1187

108 trading day cycle recurs at exact time point

old trails link

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 3, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
http://www.mmacycles...ctober-3,-2011/
I know the news of late sounds very depressing, and we have to try hard to find reasons for hope . But the news is always depressing and disturbing when longer-term cycle lows are forming. This time is no exception. A long-term cycle low, known as the 15.5-month cycle bottom, is due within three months of October 2011. And like all long-term cycles, once that low is in, a 2-5 month rally is likely to commence.

(15.2)

non-period in a period - Leonids metor showers
http://apod.nasa.gov...ds99_casado.jpg
NASA data base: Index of /apod/fap/image/1012

[stanley]

10/10/2011

Recap
(1) 08/10 - Even though Fibonacci retracement usually comes out multiple projections, chart posted on 08/10 nailed the recent low 1075 correctly. Here is the chart

(-a-)
1370.58 - 1258.07 = 112.51 ( ‘1st wave’ length)
1356.48 - 112.51 * 2.5 = 1075.21, 10/04 intraday low 1074.77
(-b-)
08/31 high 1230.71 ( ‘4th wave’ high)
1230.71 – 112.51 * 1.382 = 1075.22

(2) 10/03 – “I speculate S&P may hit 1054-1086 before the end of October, ......... Thereafter, a sizeable counter trend rally to challenge 1229-1236 again.”
This chart explains why the above sentence was written in such a ambiguous way, if you want to delve into some more details, this chart may meet your curiosity. Indeed, A chart is worth a thousand words. However, do you feel you grip the coming rhythms tightly?

--------------------------------------------
Oct 3 2011, 10:16 PM
Market has her own script

Om_Namah_Shivay Oct 8 2011, 12:25 AM link
".... .. what should we remember when charting paths for the market as if its our slave...........we are followers and slave to markets......"
---------------------------------------------

Outlook
The check points, 10/12, 10/25 (10/28), and one in November, 11/08, may give hint. these check dates monitor the high/low of the rhythmic harmonics & therefore, suggests the direction. i.e., need to see these secondary peaks (1200-1208, 1220, 1229-1236) & trough (1112, 1122) at right positions & right time slot. this process is way too tactic.

Zigzags zone has moved from [1228-1310-1381] down to [1011-1176-1228]. it is in the process of testing the upper rail 1228. strong overhead resistance lies in between 1258-1268; it will take time to wash out 1011-1102, once it gets done, the next zone would be 861-944-1011.
950 (940-972) was the tentative long term low target I made on 04/24/11. in convention, 1 year is considered ‘long term’.

MMA Weekly Comments for the Week Beginning October 10, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
link
We still await technical verification that the 15.5-month cycle low in USA stocks is in. If it is, then the market could move very sharply higher into the end of the month. If not, we still have another plunge ahead. But in either case, an important low is to be followed by a 10-20% rally, lasting 2-5 months, based on the return of Jupiter to 0-7° of Taurus, October 7-March 7. The only question for investors is: do you want to risk getting in too early, ahead of a possible 10% more to the downside, or get in too late, well after the bottom has already formed? Although that is the “only question,” it is the same question that traders face every day before they enter a trade.

seasonal event: photo
(creditor)

[stanley]

10/17/2011

S&P index moved up faster than expected, it marked that red color dot in this chart 10 trading days earlier. Last time it reached this level was on 08/31 at 1230.71, this time, it was shy a few point from 1229-1236, “Only” reached 1224.61 on 10/14.

Can we expect index move down to 1122 on 11/08 as the aftermentioned chart speculated? I don’t know. perhaps 1138 is not far off. anyway, 1172-1195 needs to be removed before calling lower numbers loudly.

King Wen's sequence shows conflict again that suggests volatility ahead. For this reason, I keep this update short, wait for these unpredictable short cycle harmonics pass through.

- King Wen's sequence 10/04, 10/12, 10/25, 11/08, conflict set: 11/15(Low), 11/16(High) suggests volatility.
The computation gets complicated, I will elaborate how these dates (especially 10/12) comes out. The same reason I have skipped the details about the E-wave counts intentionally, too much information hinders the thought process.

- Bradley Siderograph general (upper graph) and middle term (bottom graph)



charted on 10/16



Zigzags zone has moved from [1228-1310-1381] down to [1011-1176-1228]. it is in the process of testing the upper rail 1228. strong overhead resistance lies in between 1258-1268; it will take time to wash out 1011-1102, once it gets done, the next zone would be 861-944-1011.
950 (940-972) was the tentative long term low target I made on 04/24/11. in convention, 1 year is considered as ‘long term’.

[stanley]

[posted on 10/25 in indexcalls to establish the chart link]

10/25: Time machine moves to the 1st check point ( see the attached chart). The 2nd check point is due on 11/08.

recap:
Index moved as expected but too fast in pointwise. the resistance rejected the first attempt.
10/11 1199.24
10/12 1220.25
10/24 1256.55

Oct 8 2011, 12:45 PM indexcalls Link
Oct 10 2011, 08:59 AM traders-talk link

The check points, 10/12, 10/25 (10/28), and one in November, 11/08, may give hint. these check dates monitor the high/low of the rhythmic harmonics & therefore, suggests the direction. i.e., need to see these secondary peaks (1200-1208, 1220, 1229-1236) & trough (1112, 1122) at right positions & right time slot. this process is way too tactic.

Index is in the process of testing the upper rail 1228. strong overhead resistance lies in between 1258-1268;

Supports and resistance


- The next 108 trading day cycle is due on 03/10/12 +/-.
- Here is the Bradley Siderograph chart 2011 & 2012 up to June. Use this link to see full year graph. There are two important turn dates in 2012, one in March that overlaps with 108 trading day cycle, do you think it is a low or a high?

Outlook:
Zigzags zone has moved from [1228-1310-1381] down to [1011-1176-1228]. it will take time to wash out 1011-1102, once it gets done, the next zone would be 861-944-1011.
950 (940-972) was the tentative long term low target I made on 04/24/11. in convention, 1 year is considered as ‘long term’.

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series II, 10/28/2011

I will work in the Far East for about 6 months. So, the next post will be in the summer 2012.

King Wen's sequence sees High/Low conflict in 11/15-11/16, a signal suggests volatile movements ahead. Index is more closer to the high rail than the low rail. near term watch window is 11/08-11/15. I think there is only a secondary low before the end of 2011.

So far, the 108 trading day cycle recurs 4 times, the next one is due on 03/12/12 +/-. This particular cycle recurs and dampens out 'quietly', hardly get a handle on it. Here is a repost of 04/15's chart, an example to show that we can use Fibonacci ratio to nail the magnitude. October 4 is another right-on example.


Each Martin Armstrong (Economic Confidence Model) business cycle has 20 108 trading day cycle, but again, the sub-cycle in Martin Armstrong 8.6 year cycle is hard to capture. More details in 'The quest for 108'

The Bradley Siderograph in the first half of 2012, 108 trading day cycle, and Armstrong's 8.6 year cycle gives very interesting hints. Here is a reference post did by voltaire, title ' Armstrong and the President, Twins in 2012'.

voltaire 10/27/2011, 07:18 PM
While most view Armstrong's 8.6 year cycle as having fixed dates, I prefer using the cycle from major lows, as does Armstrong himself by the way. And I have discussed it with him.
From the 2009 bear low, the first Armstrong leg up was EXACTLY the high on May 2 2011.
The next leg is down and should make a low on May 26 2012.
link

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 3, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman link
I know the news of late sounds very depressing, and we have to try hard to find reasons for hope . But the news is always depressing and disturbing when longer-term cycle lows are forming. This time is no exception. A long-term cycle low, known as the 15.5-month cycle bottom, is due within three months of October 2011. And like all long-term cycles, once that low is in, a 2-5 month rally is likely to commence.

Year of the rabbit: 3 February 2011 – 22 January 2012
Year of the dragon 23 January 2012 – 9 February 2013

compiled from this web site

[fibo-nacy]

[Stanley is working in the Far East, He asked me to continue his work]

Title: 1183.16 vs. 1180.15

By Fibo-Nacy

this is an in-progress analysis

The bounce off the 1209.48 (11/17) only reached 1223.51 (11/18).
Today (11/21), index opens at 1215.61, then, it cuts through the immediate support 1202 as if it is not there.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 17, 2011 2:55:36 PM
a 0.236 bounce will reach 1229.45 (1209.75 vs. 1292.66). immediate support 1202 is the mean between 1228 and 1176
------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/21 intraday status at this writing

RUT--0.500--0685.59--actual 0696.72
S&P--0.500--1183.72--actual 1183.16-- first target is 1180.15 (refer to chart)
NDX--0.618--2184.09--actual 2188.14

Indices exhibit different strength, NDX is the weakest.

The difference between the first target 1180.15 and the 0.5 retracement 1183.16 (1292.66 vs. 1074.77) is small. however, when index dips below 1180.15 it is suggesting further decline is looming, bounces off 1183.16 says the local frame is still imposed (1292.66 vs. 1074.77). Soon we will know whether there is a meaningful low on December 20, step by step.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, November 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 November 2011 - 05:22 PM
for 'near term' (loosely defined semantics), ..... When index dives below 1176, the downward flush will start
------------------------------------------------------------------------


triangle shows its tails, breaks down just in time, see table below. The King Wen's sequence is not an aggressive index speculator, it did some good job.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct 28 2011, 02:01 PM

------------------------------------------------------------------------

[fibo-nacy]

11/23/2011 - By Fibo-Nacy

11/23 intraday low 1163.79 at this writing.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011 10:11:05 AM


Wednesday, November 23, 2011 1:44:17 PM
11/23 is a possible Bradley (minor) turn date (chart 1),
[Assume you are a die hard bear, not for a quick trade] wait 1 or 2 sessions to probe the true direction.
Time is a magic machine, Fighting for a big Battle requires Patience, (chart 2).

chart 1

chart 2