140 replies to this topic

[fibo-nacy]

11/24/2011 by Fibo-Nacy

monthly averages suggests the big trouble is looming


posted earlier
(TT does not allow uploading from the local hard disk directly, I have to post somewhere then links it back)

(Time stamp in PDT)


Projection based on E-wave extensions has multiple terminal points.
'The final one' you want to know can only be determined after the fact.
it looks like the index is 'getting closer' to an intraday reversal point.

11/23 closing number is 1161.79.
wave project 1161.69 = 1277.55 - 1.5 * (1292.66-1215.42).
1.5 seems a 'little bit' shorter than 'suppose to be'.
The intermediate terminal points 1277.55, 1215.42 and 1161.69 suggest these are sub-waves
More downward legs after the bounce.

[fibo-nacy]

11/25/2011 9:33am PDT by Fibo-Nacy

R 1172.66 1175.22
S 1158 without knocking out this support, not much show for today's short session (11/25). after all, 0.618 is a respectful FIB point

The intermediate terminal points 1277.55, 1215.42 and 1158 suggest these are sub-waves
More downward legs after the bounce. so far the bounce is too tiny to be a valid one.

[fibo-nacy]

Crafting the rhythms series II, November 25, 2011

Title: Connecting flight to 2012

By Fibo-Nacy [Stanley is working in the Far East, He asked me to continue his work]

Brief review

The conflicts on high/low closely synchronized with the breakdown of triangle on 11/16. The low date based on King Wen’s sequence is still ahead, 12/20 (and 01/04, 01/18, 01/31, not shown in the table, see [1] Time pivots )

Oct 28 2011, 02:01 PM

The significance of 1292.66 on 10/27 is not only it is a high ratio Fibonacci point (1292.4 @0.809 1440 vs. 667), after you read this chart you will know why. ((Fibo-Nacy Posted on 31 July 2011 - 12:01 AM)

“Sometimes, the 'textbook' example can serve only as a guide, If you are a large swing trader, where is the Exit point? 1286, 1294 or 1234??, thus the beauty of the market, she teases the speculators to the maximum extent” (Stanley posted on Jun 6 2011, 01:04 AM)

Nov 16 2011, 02:00 PM


Time flies, when Stanley posted his ‘long’ term target number 950 that was on April, 2011. So, now, I shall call it the middle term target; As time approaches (March/12 – June/12), we can do the fine tuning the number. The key level to watch is 1054 which is the 50% retracement out of 1440 vs. 667. This level was a hot spot when the October’s plunge cratered at 1074. Based on the already deployed trajectories, somewhere in between 1054 & 1086 will be tested again. The lowest number for the near term target is 955.13 (refer to [2] Index level). so I have maintained the consistency in between the near, middle and long time frames. Important reference numbers are 1294, 1176, 1054 and 944, these number give us the rough hints how the zigzags will traverse among those Fibonacci points.

[1] Time pivots

(a.) Ken Wen’s sequence see conflicts again

12/20, 01/04, 01/18, 01/31 [Low]
01/17, 01/30, 02/10 [high]

(b.) Bradley Turn dates

11/22-23, 12/28, 1/11, 1/28, 2/16, 2/22, 3/16, .... full year chart

(c.) 108 trading day cycle

03/12/2012

Something big is going to happen in the stock market next year, I don’t want say too much, I can feel it is out there. imho, How to balance amongst the date 12/20, 03/12-16, and 05/26-06/12 is the key.

[2] Index level

[a.] near term

chart
break down table

[b.] middle term 950

Stanley April 24 2011, 02:49 PM
“I have a tentative estimate for S&P 500 index low target. It is around 950 (940-972). ......The magnitude and dates should be considered as a guideline and is subjected to change when newer data arrives"

881.38 = [0.236|666.79:1576.09]
1014.14=[0.382|666.79:1576.09]
mean of (881.38 + 1014.14) = 947.76 == 948, round into 950

May 10 2009


[c.] Long term, the-Bottom 462

chart
original text by Stanley Sep 5 2011, 12:57 AM

[3] Events

2011 Arbic Spring, the squeezed middle

'Squeezed middle' is word of the year – link
“Arab Spring” - link

Zodiac 2011 Year of the rabbit
3 February 2011 – 22 January 2012: Metal Hare


Hi, Dear Dragon, it's gonna be your turn

Zodiac 2012 Year of the Dragon
23 January 2012 – 9 February 2013: Water Dragon,

“The Year of the Dragon is again just around the corner and fear and trepidation are once more an issue.”
Image/Text source

2012 The year we make real change

An important chapter will be written into the history book.

[fibo-nacy]

11/28/2011 10:53 PDT by Fibo-Nacy

refer to the prior post.
adding one more chart to show that the wave count is still hiding, needs to see a reversal to confirm

so far (11/28 10:30am PDT) intraday high is 1197.35

1158.66 + 0.5 * (1292.66 – 1215.42) = 1197.28

[fibo-nacy]

11/29/2011, 8.00am PDT

By Fibo-Nacy

as expected, the bounce arrivals just in time, SPX index bounced of the 1158/0.618 support.

SPX 50SMA is around 1205.65 (as of 11/29).
The nearby wave terminals are 1206.39 and 1197.28, for more breaks down, see the attached table/chart.

November 22-23 was a minor Bradley Turn dates, gives (+/-), i.e., 2/3 trading days to see if the bounce can persist till the major Bradley turn date 12/28. King Wen's sequence suggests the first low follows the low on Oct 4 will be as earliest as 12/20, and in Januray 4, 18, 31.

So far, the index behaves more like the (hiding) sub-wave 4 than becoming a larger upward wave. The longer it stalls around 1180-1215, the better odds it will reverse down again. In case index ascends above 1215.42 decisively, it eliminates the near term bearish call; Overall, I am looking for 1067-955 in the next few months. Fighting a big battle requires patience.

[fibo-nacy]

11/30/2011 by Fibo-Nacy

A big gap up makes the one who did right ‘decision’ happy. The stock markets produce the never ending stories. When you are perplexed with the paradoxical question: what is my next step? ask yourself how many time you have raised the same question in the past 10 years? It is the time opens the scope to a wider range time frame again. We're fast approaching the most violent time window of the years (2).

(1)
Nov 29 2011, 01:13 PM
November 22-23 was a minor Bradley Turn dates, gives (+/-), i.e., 2/3 trading days to see if the bounce can persist till the major Bradley turn date 12/28. In case index ascends above 1215.42 decisively, it eliminates the near term bearish call.

(2)
Nov 25 2011, 03:38 PM
Something big is going to happen in the stock market next year, I don’t want say too much, I can feel it is out there. imho, How to balance amongst the date 12/28, 03/12-16, and 05/26-06/12 is the key.

[fibo-nacy]

12/01/2011 8:20am PDT

by Fibo-Nacy

Right now the S&P500 is much closer to the high limit (1294) than lower rail (955-1067).
Fighting a big battle requires patience.

[fibo-nacy]

12/02/2011 1130am PDT

By Fibo-Nacy

SPX stalls before the resistance/Fib point 1263.99
NDX is is fast approaching to the resistance 2333-2336
The upper rail is 2342-2356. The risk vs. reward is improving on taking the short side

[fibo-nacy]

12/05/11 08:16am PDT

by Fibo-Nacy

indices status: as of 12/05, 8.00am PDT
NDX 2342.76 [2342-2356]
SPX 1266.39 [1265.40]

index retraces back to where it was on 11/07-11/08. the ‘hidden’ wave '4' is becoming obvious and technicians are speculating the possible wave count. indices are reaching the intraday reversal point.
Once the key resistance 1277.55 gets penetrated, the low (that is lower than 1074 .77, Oct/04) is hardly be visible in the rest of the trading days this year. Stanley did mention this possibility, will see.

12/04/2011 9:45pm PDT


Stanley Oct 28 2011, 02:01 PM
I think there is only a secondary low before the end of 2011.

Fibo-Nacy Nov 29 2011, 01:13 PM
November 22-23 was a minor Bradley Turn dates, gives (+/-), i.e., 2/3 trading days to see if the bounce can persist till the major Bradley turn date 12/28. King Wen's sequence suggests the first low follows the low on Oct 4 will be as earliest as 12/20, and in Januray 4, 18, 31.
So far, the index behaves more like the (hiding) sub-wave 4 than becoming a larger upward wave. The longer it stalls around 1180-1215, the better odds it will reverse down again. In case index ascends above 1215.42 decisively, it eliminates the near term bearish call

[fibo-nacy]

Crafting the rhythms series II, December 6, 2011

by Fibo-Nacy

Astro is in ‘considered’ an “alternative TA”. It worth to mention that the pattern recognition was applied in the well recognized TA book back to 1948. In that year, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee published Technical Analysis of Stock Trends; Astro speculation also applies pattern recognition. I will cover an interesting topic in the second part of this post.

[1] index status

The following chart is a summary table to show how the index has been tracked. I started the table on 11/23, and posted in capitalstool.com to established a link so I can link it back to Trders-talk.
The reversal from 1158 took place on 11/28. due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there were only 1 and half trading sessions from 11/23 which was the Bradley Turn date. At this writing, Index encounters the resistance from 200 SMA and the 1250-1270 Fibonacci clusters. The King Wen’s sequence suggest a possible low date as earliest as 12/20, if it does not transpire, then, could be in January 4, 18, 31. [+/-]. King Wen’s sequence is not an aggressive time speculator, it gives a set of possible dates let market deploy whatever she wants.



[2] The first Uranus-Pluto square will take place on 24th June 2012 Within 1 degree orb

orb: http://en.wikipedia....Orb_(astrology)

draggen33 posted a discussion:

draggen33 December 5 2011, 07:57 PM link
ray merrmian states
"The Uranus station on December 10 should give us a shock as to what 2012-2015 will look like – again"
link

That phrase in particular scares me and makes me run for cover I have googled it , so I know that answer just curious of others thoughts,
Best trading ,

What's Going On?

THE HERBST NEWSLETTER Issue #125 – August 2010
Bill Herbst

An excerpt
full text: http://www.billherbst.com/News125.pdf

Having studied in depth the various cycles of civilization astrology for nearly a decade, I’ve deciphered enough of the symbolic coding to know that the pair of successive long-term alignments [Note] that make up the primary symbolic indicators of the archetype field from 2008-2020 present us with a two-step dance whose second phase is very different from its first.

From 2008 through 2011, during the life of the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square, whatever happens to push civilization closer to the edge will be resisted by the powers-that-be to the point of denial of anything changing at all in the way we live our lives and conduct our affairs. [ skip..... ]

Then, from 2012 on, when the Uranus-Pluto first-quarter square finally hits critical mass and takes over center stage, the second phase repudiates the first as we enter an extended period of real and dramatic change............

[Fibo –Note]:

First phase: The Saturn-Uranus Opposition Series -- 2008 - 2010
http://www.astrology...turnuranus.html
Exact: 5 times
11/04/08 02/05/09
09/15/09 04/26/10
07/26/10

Second Phase: Uranus-Pluto Squares -
http://www.astrology...ranuspluto.html
Exact 7 times
06/24/12 09/19/12
05/20/13 11/01/13
04/21/14 12/15/14
03/17/15

In the first phase, other than those nature disasters, the world experienced:
The collapse of the US housing bubble, European sovereign debt crisis..... ( Financial crisis of 2007–2010 http://en.wikipedia....ign_debt_crisis )

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 17, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman link
Today there are several longer-term planetary cycles in force converging all at once in a short span of time. The most notable coming up is the Uranus-Pluto waxing square, which I discussed at great length last week. It will be in an exact waxing square aspect seven times between June 2012 and March 2015.

What was not discussed in last week’s column was the difference between a first quarter phase (square) of the Uranus cycle, such as this current period, and the last quarter phase (square) of the same cycle, such as took placed in the 1928-1934 instance. All squares are painful, but not all pain is the same, and not all pain ends in loss. ..... the waxing square, or the first square that follows the conjunction, is akin to the pain of birth. It is a difficult period, but you make it through and then things grow. That is what is happening now. ......

I compiled an Uranus retrogrades chart
from: http://www.cafeastro...etrogrades.html

on Dec 10, 2011, Uranus will enter the stationary Direct, then on 24th June 2012, the First Uranus Square Pluto will take place.


large size

Perhaphs, You will agree the rhythmic prelude like this (click) has commenced the (Second) Phase ‘quitely’