108 replies to this topic

[dharma]

well the only 2 who posted buys going into 70 of gold weakness was stu and i. now, for me the question is what do i do w/these buys. do i trade em , and turn a quick buck into the fibs, or do i shove em in the core. deliberations!!!!
i have 2% cash and i bought juniors which have some gidyap. when i look@the structure of the correction, it looks like it was 3 waves down. and when i take a step back, the highs for gold were on the 14th. not much time has elapsed and this is substandard for normal gold corrections. however, the move up was @a steep angle of ascent. and this may be part of the other 12 corrections or so that have taken place since the july lows. deliberations. i will give this more time and then decide.
the drill for bulls is simple. you want to be long and you want to buy weakness. and if you can get weakness , which gets oversold and diverges, then you are in biz, @least for me
volatility is picking up. its a time to be really disciplined. we are dealing w/a very jealous lover here. and if you come in tired or emotionally upset , you will lose your way. take care of yourself. if this is your biz. then be professional about it. i saw this piece on espn w/chris carter. now carter is the 2nd all time in catches and yards gained, behind the great jerry rice. and carter was lecturing a bunch of rookies. and he told em . go out partying saturday night and i will be waiting for you on sunday. its like that w/the market. i have made a commitment to this bull. and so be it
dharma
all the chatter on qe2 is just that. they have put bernake in there to institute the printing of money. the professor has determined that he is not going to make the same mistake as his predecessor of 32. the question to my mind is , is qe2 in the price of gold already? and to what extant. my guess is its not, he is going to have to do more than tarp. much more . the patient requires a greater electro shock to get his legs under him.
if not now, then soon, 1460 calls the market!!!

That's the Sagittarius in Bernanke!..yes, he must save face here...Dharma, do you have any thoughts that gold diverges from the equities in the near future?....and goes up while equities go down?...I've been accumulating HL..Hecla Mining on these pullbacks and gld...but I"m thinking maybe QE 2 is priced in the markets but not gold...if the $ collapses..I mean really collapses, confidence will be shattered and the only place to be would be in gold imo...just thinking outloud..despite the rally in equities today...gold and silver are not really participating to heavily today coming off their highs so far....and .there are underlying sell signals on some of these indexes..like MACD crossovers and other indicators..but I know Bernanke trumps all TA right now.. and I'm mainly now watching the NYSE Bullish Percent..as it has crossed barely above 70 into overbot..once it crosses down..supply takes over it will be a sell too..and that one I feel weighs a lot more using point and figure for any correction...last week I got an alert on the NYSE weekly and GLD weekly momentum turning from positive to negative...it can flip back but that's a first time sell since it's been on a buy since early Sept for NYSE and first time since August's run for gld...The market feels tired to me..and so do I ..LOL!..

Thanks for your thoughts..keep them coming

TM

ta is what i make my living from. it works.
if anything i expect @some point the miners outperform the metal, it maybe later in the game. i dont know. i doubt that the extant of the damage of qe2 is priced in the markets. its one thing to talk about it. its another to implement it. many cbs etc are still believing the chatter of the strong dollar. remember the dollar has been the standard for a very long time. countries hold dollars in lieu of gold. dont under estimate the significance of this change.
i didnt post 1460 just taking a flyer. i believe we will see it and fairly soon.
dharma

[tradermama]

well the only 2 who posted buys going into 70 of gold weakness was stu and i. now, for me the question is what do i do w/these buys. do i trade em , and turn a quick buck into the fibs, or do i shove em in the core. deliberations!!!!
i have 2% cash and i bought juniors which have some gidyap. when i look@the structure of the correction, it looks like it was 3 waves down. and when i take a step back, the highs for gold were on the 14th. not much time has elapsed and this is substandard for normal gold corrections. however, the move up was @a steep angle of ascent. and this may be part of the other 12 corrections or so that have taken place since the july lows. deliberations. i will give this more time and then decide.
the drill for bulls is simple. you want to be long and you want to buy weakness. and if you can get weakness , which gets oversold and diverges, then you are in biz, @least for me
volatility is picking up. its a time to be really disciplined. we are dealing w/a very jealous lover here. and if you come in tired or emotionally upset , you will lose your way. take care of yourself. if this is your biz. then be professional about it. i saw this piece on espn w/chris carter. now carter is the 2nd all time in catches and yards gained, behind the great jerry rice. and carter was lecturing a bunch of rookies. and he told em . go out partying saturday night and i will be waiting for you on sunday. its like that w/the market. i have made a commitment to this bull. and so be it
dharma
all the chatter on qe2 is just that. they have put bernake in there to institute the printing of money. the professor has determined that he is not going to make the same mistake as his predecessor of 32. the question to my mind is , is qe2 in the price of gold already? and to what extant. my guess is its not, he is going to have to do more than tarp. much more . the patient requires a greater electro shock to get his legs under him.
if not now, then soon, 1460 calls the market!!!

That's the Sagittarius in Bernanke!..yes, he must save face here...Dharma, do you have any thoughts that gold diverges from the equities in the near future?....and goes up while equities go down?...I've been accumulating HL..Hecla Mining on these pullbacks and gld...but I"m thinking maybe QE 2 is priced in the markets but not gold...if the $ collapses..I mean really collapses, confidence will be shattered and the only place to be would be in gold imo...just thinking outloud..despite the rally in equities today...gold and silver are not really participating to heavily today coming off their highs so far....and .there are underlying sell signals on some of these indexes..like MACD crossovers and other indicators..but I know Bernanke trumps all TA right now.. and I'm mainly now watching the NYSE Bullish Percent..as it has crossed barely above 70 into overbot..once it crosses down..supply takes over it will be a sell too..and that one I feel weighs a lot more using point and figure for any correction...last week I got an alert on the NYSE weekly and GLD weekly momentum turning from positive to negative...it can flip back but that's a first time sell since it's been on a buy since early Sept for NYSE and first time since August's run for gld...The market feels tired to me..and so do I ..LOL!..

Thanks for your thoughts..keep them coming

TM

ta is what i make my living from. it works.
if anything i expect @some point the miners outperform the metal, it maybe later in the game. i dont know. i doubt that the extant of the damage of qe2 is priced in the markets. its one thing to talk about it. its another to implement it. many cbs etc are still believing the chatter of the strong dollar. remember the dollar has been the standard for a very long time. countries hold dollars in lieu of gold. dont under estimate the significance of this change.
i didnt post 1460 just taking a flyer. i believe we will see it and fairly soon.
dharma

I didn't mean to imply TA doesn't work. That's what I do too for a living too. What I'm saying is that this isn't an organic bull market in equities...gold yes and will be for a long time. The equity bull been created imo by the QE pump and over extended. In healthy bull markets you do pullback unlike we saw in Sept/Oct in equities and what I'm saying is Benanke trumps that. Gold is a different story because imo that is the real organic bull market. But certaintly, TA works and that's relative too.

Also trust me I know by now when you are certain on your targets and cycles. You have shown it and it's something that I do pay attention to.


November 17-18 plus minus 3..is the next turn date for metals from Merriman. I have a feeling this one we just had Oct 21-22 plus/minus 3..which is today is reversed from a low last week ..so your thinking could be right ..it was interesting watching last week how important 1325 was..it was a magnet to come back to

TM

[stubaby]

dharma/TM:

Yes I did selective buying at the end of last week based on individual charts, but I was a "net seller", including my stated reduction last Monday and a few stop-losses that were hit along the way.

At this point in time I think we will see a low, including some obvious (to those watching closely) divergences sometime around the November 17-18 plus minus 3 date. I expect the move off of Friday's lows to fail to make new highs here and then a re-test to coincide with weakness in the broad market.

US Dollar "bounce" is taking shape - still looking for a print around 80, then reversal (Friday's late afternoon "mini-crash" took out a bunch of stops on the dollar).

For me the real fireworks is just ahead - whether you ride out the final swoon before the explosion or load-up over the next 2 weeks - you have to be there for this one - it's the kickoff of Phase 3!

Adding to an existing holding today - RIO.V

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=204637768


stubaby

[dharma]

there is alot of momo behind this market. folks are waking up everyday to the sad reality of the situation. its fairly simple really, the drill is buy weakness , sell strength. of course the mind interferes and sees potential to most lower levels and that is why myself and one other person on this board were the only buyers. its the deer in the headlights. get your thinking in order, volatility will soon be exhausting(physically on the body). gold still is not expressing itself fully. when it does, it will make trading extremely difficult to say the least anyway, here and now. i am in a toss up. i think we go higher here, but maybe only back to the highs and then a larger correction to the 1260s area(will refine that when the top is in). or we could just giddy up to new highs right here. take your pick! i took my trading cap off and i am awaiting opportunities. or @least for the market to tip its hand. long and strong dharma

Edited by dharma, 26 October 2010 - 10:32 AM.

[dharma]

i have been in trade mode, break 1315 and it opens the door to lower levels. on weakness i want to buy into silver miners. take a look @a long term chart of silver going back to prior to the highs of 80. after the top, the market rallied to 25 , which is where we just hit. there is supply @25. weakness needs to be bought. in the present quarter, since the july lows, the precious metals have gone on a tear, and prices have averaged much higher than the preceding quarter. to my knowledge no one is talking about that. it should equate to outstanding earnings for producers. so in earnings season, we should hear the majors making some good increases in earnings. same old same old , buy weakness. i have traded out of some laggards and have some cash, should a larger correction develop, say below 1300 , i will be back on margin. @these prices i am not enticed as i bought these levels. unless of course somebody falls out of bed dharma

[dharma]

paul tudor jones to investors
http://dealbreaker.c...tis/#more-30035
dharma

[stubaby]

i have been in trade mode, break 1315 and it opens the door to lower levels.
on weakness i want to buy into silver miners. take a look @a long term chart of silver going back to prior to the highs of 80. after the top, the market rallied to 25 , which is where we just hit. there is supply @25. weakness needs to be bought.
in the present quarter, since the july lows, the precious metals have gone on a tear, and prices have averaged much higher than the preceding quarter. to my knowledge no one is talking about that. it should equate to outstanding earnings for producers. so in earnings season, we should hear the majors making some good increases in earnings. same old same old , buy weakness. i have traded out of some laggards and have some cash, should a larger correction develop, say below 1300 , i will be back on margin. @these prices i am not enticed as i bought these levels. unless of course somebody falls out of bed
dharma

dharma:

Do you have a 'short-list' of Silver Miners you like? Of course, I will do my own DD. I have SLW and the ETF-SIL on my radar screen here.


Thanks,
stubaby

[dharma]

i have been in trade mode, break 1315 and it opens the door to lower levels.
on weakness i want to buy into silver miners. take a look @a long term chart of silver going back to prior to the highs of 80. after the top, the market rallied to 25 , which is where we just hit. there is supply @25. weakness needs to be bought.
in the present quarter, since the july lows, the precious metals have gone on a tear, and prices have averaged much higher than the preceding quarter. to my knowledge no one is talking about that. it should equate to outstanding earnings for producers. so in earnings season, we should hear the majors making some good increases in earnings. same old same old , buy weakness. i have traded out of some laggards and have some cash, should a larger correction develop, say below 1300 , i will be back on margin. @these prices i am not enticed as i bought these levels. unless of course somebody falls out of bed
dharma

dharma:

Do you have a 'short-list' of Silver Miners you like? Of course, I will do my own DD. I have SLW and the ETF-SIL on my radar screen here.


Thanks,
stubaby

exk, okoff , frmsf
this is certainly a wake up call
http://www.cbsnews.c...ch/?id=6987699n
dharma

Edited by dharma, 27 October 2010 - 02:44 PM.

[dharma]

i am in trade mode, the pivots are set. the public is set to price chase over 1400. do they get lured in here and now or do we go to 1260ish 1st?????!!!! there is still time for seasonal weakness, creating a buying opportunity. my guess is the weakness comes 1st. notice ggs earnings yesterday. and they doubled their dividend. this will be a theme going foward. take a look @hm from 29-32. yes, the situation is a little different . us citizens can own gold now. looking @that you miss the point. ben will qe now or later. he will qe2. lowering the value of the dollar is in the cards. no way do the creditors get paid back. take a look @history sovereign debt is never paid off. the drunken stupor of deficit spending ends, but the debt gets washed away. and this time the politicians and banksters come up w/a plan where they promise to balance the budget. this time they will be honest, honest they will. for a little while. anyway, keeping some powder dry. got a bucket of popcorn and i am watching the action. all the dollar bulls out there are pissing into the wind. take a look @the chart go back to 01 when w worked his magic. currencies go into a trend for a very long time. sure there are rallies. dollar holders have been and will continue to be punished. in fact against gold , all fiat holders are being punished. so, some folks say i have intestinal fortitude. not @all , i hate losing money!!!! dharma

[stubaby]

i have been in trade mode, break 1315 and it opens the door to lower levels.
on weakness i want to buy into silver miners. take a look @a long term chart of silver going back to prior to the highs of 80. after the top, the market rallied to 25 , which is where we just hit. there is supply @25. weakness needs to be bought.
in the present quarter, since the july lows, the precious metals have gone on a tear, and prices have averaged much higher than the preceding quarter. to my knowledge no one is talking about that. it should equate to outstanding earnings for producers. so in earnings season, we should hear the majors making some good increases in earnings. same old same old , buy weakness. i have traded out of some laggards and have some cash, should a larger correction develop, say below 1300 , i will be back on margin. @these prices i am not enticed as i bought these levels. unless of course somebody falls out of bed
dharma

dharma:

Do you have a 'short-list' of Silver Miners you like? Of course, I will do my own DD. I have SLW and the ETF-SIL on my radar screen here.


Thanks,
stubaby

exk, okoff , frmsf
this is certainly a wake up call
http://www.cbsnews.c...ch/?id=6987699n
dharma

dharma:

Took an initial position in Endeavor today - any weakness over the coming months to form "handle" and I will add more, but as we have seen - corrections have been of the 23 or 38% FIB varieties of late.

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=212256895
http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=212256647

stubaby