92 replies to this topic

[JGUITARSLIM]

Also, your daily timing band appears to be inconsistent.

Please clarify.

Don't know what you mean by inconsistent?

[golden]

Don't know what you mean by inconsistent?

The number of days between your bands differ.

Just trying to understand your timing methodology.

[JGUITARSLIM]

Don't know what you mean by inconsistent?

The number of days between your bands differ.

Just trying to understand your timing methodology.

Gotcha. Cycles hardly ever run exact # days.
Sometimes they shorten or stretch.
Most often fall within a timing band, or range of days.
If not...some other dynamic(s) may be at play?

[dharma]

... and frankly i dont know what the sentiment is-price and time are my guides, sentiment goes to extremes and stays there. take a look @the nasdaq in 99 andn2k.

Oh, I remember it very well.

Gold is not even close to the dot-com madness years (1999/2000.)

That's probably several years away.

When gold go parabolic, it should be trading in the 5,000-10,000 range.

Perma-bulls, as well as Perma-bears, only "see" what they want to see......



Enjoy your weekend

no doubt, we are early in the game. 5796 is my #. and i agree w/you we have another 3-4years. it is human nature to see things through ones own eyes.
i use the otc as a reference , most were nt around in 79-80.
gold is in its seasonal strong time of year.
that being said, i see this so far as a normal correction. w/non confirmations @this point in the miners.
the nice thing is this will be resolved soon.
dharma

[tradermama]

... and frankly i dont know what the sentiment is-price and time are my guides, sentiment goes to extremes and stays there. take a look @the nasdaq in 99 andn2k.

Oh, I remember it very well.

Gold is not even close to the dot-com madness years (1999/2000.)

That's probably several years away.

When gold go parabolic, it should be trading in the 5,000-10,000 range.

Perma-bulls, as well as Perma-bears, only "see" what they want to see......



Enjoy your weekend

no doubt, we are early in the game. 5796 is my #. and i agree w/you we have another 3-4years. it is human nature to see things through ones own eyes.
i use the otc as a reference , most were nt around in 79-80.
gold is in its seasonal strong time of year.
that being said, i see this so far as a normal correction. w/non confirmations @this point in the miners.
the nice thing is this will be resolved soon.
dharma

Dharma,
Here's a snapshot of the ticks on gold from tradestation (courtesy from BT's Timing Board on IHub). Blue bars are professionals/green are retailers. Professionals did come in at the end here. Unlike the Oct 19th top professionals weren't selling this top. Now we see if we can get over 1386 as that is resistance. Merriman's Nov 17/18 turn is plus/minus 3 days..tomorrow and tues is a Bradley turn dated..throw in Venus direct Nov 18..then full moon on the 21st which the effects can be felt on that Friday or Monday..it should be a wild ride maybe on both sides...and of course its option expiration..

http://www.screencas...54-57f890e50e77

Last year we peaked on Dec 1st and Terry Laundry has us topping out short term in the first week of Dec. But no matter, like you said, it's a favorable period right now for gold...and Venus is going direct at the end of the week and is back in Libra the sign it rules..along with Jupiter in Pisces the same day...Merriman thinks that we could have an agreement with the G20 next week...based on that set up because of the balance sign Venus will be in and Jupiter in Pisces being a chance of good news...If that is the case, gold could be under pressure maybe later imo because at first I think the market's wont believe it if something did come out of this of the G20 meeting..there's no trust right now on currencies.....but maybe sometime in December something more concrete comes..I"m just throwing that out..I have no idea.


TM

[senorBS]

Updated daily Gold cycle chart.
In timing band for cycle bottom late next week.

That is one MASSIVE negative RSI & MACD divergence.




Also, your daily timing band appears to be inconsistent.

Please clarify.

golden:

Here is my Alternative Count - helps explain RSI & MACD divergences - if 1,350 breaks - then bottom should be in the 1,290 to 1,321 range.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p51464135363&a=205148199&r=1428.png

and the weekly chart does not appear "at risk" as lots of support just below!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p92228012366&a=205151058&r=3461.png

stubaby

you do realize that your green labeled wave one could just as easily be a massive wave 5 peak? I am not saying it is but it is just and possible IMO, and my cause for caution. Muy malo divergence like have been shown happen in fifth wave very often. Just trying to show both sides fairly.

NO BS

Senor

[stubaby]

Updated daily Gold cycle chart.
In timing band for cycle bottom late next week.

That is one MASSIVE negative RSI & MACD divergence.




Also, your daily timing band appears to be inconsistent.

Please clarify.

golden:

Here is my Alternative Count - helps explain RSI & MACD divergences - if 1,350 breaks - then bottom should be in the 1,290 to 1,321 range.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p51464135363&a=205148199&r=1428.png

and the weekly chart does not appear "at risk" as lots of support just below!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p92228012366&a=205151058&r=3461.png

stubaby

you do realize that your green labeled wave one could just as easily be a massive wave 5 peak? I am not saying it is but it is just and possible IMO, and my cause for caution. Muy malo divergence like have been shown happen in fifth wave very often. Just trying to show both sides fairly.

NO BS

Senor

Senor BS:

OK - I agree and we have:

......................Wave 1 (from 1,156)....Wave 1 (from 681)
23.6% FIB...........1,361....................................1,249
38.2% FIB...........1,321....................................1,140
50.0% FIB...........1,290....................................1,053
61.8% FIB...........1,258......................................965

Other Potential Support Areas:
50-Day Moving Average @ 1,326
200-Day Moving Average @ 1,213
15-Week Moving Average @ 1,295
65-Week Moving Average @ 1,162
Trendline (BLUE) from 681 Low @ 1,345
Trendline (RED) across the bottom of Wave from 681 (5 touches) @ 1,265

To me if we started Wave 5 (from 2001) at the 2009 lows:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=M&st=1990-01-01&en=2010-12-31&i=p51308426406&a=188369749&r=2482.png

Then the most likely "worst-case" downside targets here fall in the 1,140 to 1,250 range and would take until around August of 2011.

However, The present wave from the August lows being 5 of 1 of 5 could itself extend into early next year before correcting. That is the question at hand and guideposts are laid out with MA's, FIB's, and trendlines.


We will all be watching this unfold, however, what I believe to be more important at this moment are the earnings and relative performance of the miners verses the metals - to me this is what has recently changed!

stubaby

[senorBS]

Updated daily Gold cycle chart.
In timing band for cycle bottom late next week.

That is one MASSIVE negative RSI & MACD divergence.




Also, your daily timing band appears to be inconsistent.

Please clarify.

golden:

Here is my Alternative Count - helps explain RSI & MACD divergences - if 1,350 breaks - then bottom should be in the 1,290 to 1,321 range.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p51464135363&a=205148199&r=1428.png

and the weekly chart does not appear "at risk" as lots of support just below!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p92228012366&a=205151058&r=3461.png

stubaby

you do realize that your green labeled wave one could just as easily be a massive wave 5 peak? I am not saying it is but it is just and possible IMO, and my cause for caution. Muy malo divergence like have been shown happen in fifth wave very often. Just trying to show both sides fairly.

NO BS

Senor

Senor BS:

OK - I agree and we have:

......................Wave 1 (from 1,156)....Wave 1 (from 681)
23.6% FIB...........1,361....................................1,249
38.2% FIB...........1,321....................................1,140
50.0% FIB...........1,290....................................1,053
61.8% FIB...........1,258......................................965

Other Potential Support Areas:
50-Day Moving Average @ 1,326
200-Day Moving Average @ 1,213
15-Week Moving Average @ 1,295
65-Week Moving Average @ 1,162
Trendline (BLUE) from 681 Low @ 1,345
Trendline (RED) across the bottom of Wave from 681 (5 touches) @ 1,265

To me if we started Wave 5 (from 2001) at the 2009 lows:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=M&st=1990-01-01&en=2010-12-31&i=p51308426406&a=188369749&r=2482.png

Then the most likely "worst-case" downside targets here fall in the 1,140 to 1,250 range and would take until around August of 2011.

However, The present wave from the August lows being 5 of 1 of 5 could itself extend into early next year before correcting. That is the question at hand and guideposts are laid out with MA's, FIB's, and trendlines.


We will all be watching this unfold, however, what I believe to be more important at this moment are the earnings and relative performance of the miners verses the metals - to me this is what has recently changed!

stubaby

There are a few ways to count the rally from 2001, my favorite is that large a wave 4 bottom was made in October of 2008 at 680, this could be the fifth of the fifth from there.

BSing away

Senor

[dougie]

the real question is as stu said, with either count, what will the miners do ? might they not diverge positively from the metal? surely these prices seem to bring good profits

[dharma]

elliott died broke the leading exponent of elliott wave has been wrong on everything for decades. the trend is your friend shorting the major trend is not the way to riches. not one of the forbes 400 made their fortune shorting a bull market. not the odds i like i follow my work. i dont preempt my work , i am content to just follow volatility will be increasing here that will be the theme the bradley is tomorrow/wednesday another astro turn is wednesday and thursday- venus/jupiter both go direct on thursday. traderama and ken i do vedic astrology which is a little different than western astrology and gold is in a major venus cycle which, i think when venus goes direct will be positive for the gold market surprises will be on the upside. my work points to a high in january and it should be substantially higher than it is now. what will make this happen, i have no idea what i do see here is miners are stubbornly not making new lows they are not following the metal, @some point these high prices will equate to huge profits for the miners. i do not have hourly divergences on the hourly charts. i am still wearing my buy hat , looking for opportunities when and if the harmonics change then i will tinker w/my system, until then i see no reason not to follow it it has continually made me money, my accounts made new highs last week, why fix what aint broke i love hearing everyones opinion. for years i sat alone @my desk not having any input. now after 31 years i am cultured and ready to share what i know. and what i know is the trend is your friend. dont fight the fed. or the seasonals listen to everyone , but follow my own work dharma