177 replies to this topic

[dougie]

uggh, was afraid you would say that

[dharma]

well here we are , and it is very quiet. gold testing the 1392 major support, which @some point i expect to give way. all the action since the dec highs is base building. sideways action. i felt this correction coming @some point yesterday and did some aggressive selling into the close. i continued selling this am and am now in 15% cash, which has been home for me. since 2008 we have had our share of corrections , but nothing major. i believe we will see a major correction over the next several months. i dont think the miners get killed like they did in 08. but, i want to let the market tell me as opposed to me telling the market. in the 12years of bull, i have not seen one instance where we didnt have highs into the cycle high. yes, highs have come a bit early , but not by more than a week. so i am waiting to see if we rally. i may raise more cash. 1307.7 was the last low of significance. i think that low gets taken out. and the bears get loud. real loud. this crises that we are in isnt about this horrific earth quake in japan. its not about mid east starvation and revolution. its about debt. its about sovereign debt. instead of governments doing the right thing, they are trying their best to preserve their power. debt does not = money. as long as governments continue to take the expedient route, gold will rally north. sure there will be corrections , they serve to strengthen the bull. so , i am watching the high level of base building in the metals. sometimes it takes awhile for the base to built. this has just been since december. now , i am better prepared for whatever happens. cash in hand. and positioned fairly well. i love silvers story. for all those yelling about the historic 16:1 ratio . remember in the depression gold was priced @20 , this is before roosevelt called in all the gold and then raised the price to 35 , thus cutting pp in almost 1/2. silver was .22 . yes, i think silver will take out the 52 highs. but @some point it will peak, then it will be locked limit down for days on end. no cbs, to my knowledge hold silver. its role as a monetary metal is much less than gold. to say the least. gold has always been money. fiat=debt . gold =money. i dont like to get locked into price projections or time projections either. although i use the latter continually. i need to be able to listen . the market speaks , but in a different tongue. i have to be open to hear it. dharma

[SemiBizz]

Little haircut coming now to 127.80 based on the volume and momentum we see here...

At these prices, that's just a trim...

[PMILLY]

dharma, So to be clear for all those readers out there... You no longer expect fireworks to the upside this week and next. You are now anticipating an extended correction, whatever the price and time? Pmilly

[stubaby]

dharma:

I put this chart together back in late December. Looks like Sovereign Debt crisis is beginning, but as you say with the Japan crisis and the revolutionary theme spreading (even into the US) it's being "hidden". Got to bring it "into the light of day" before we bottom here - could be a long time coming.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p36225455009&a=218482484&r=74.png

Let the games begin!
Martin Armstrong Release Statement

stubaby

[dougie]

stu: you out then?

[stubaby]

stu: you out then?

dougie:

No-No-No Never out - Some stops hit! down from 70% Miners to 40%. Hedged 20% with QID, SDS, and SKF. Still painfull, but normal 'drawdown' here. Have a bunch of work tonight to see "what's what".

stubaby

[dougie]

let me know what you see: here is one thing:
http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=208826414

[stubaby]

let me know what you see: here is one thing:
http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=208826414

dougie:

Lot's of "hammmers" on individual charts

stubaby

[dharma]

boj , fed, ecb printing like crazy. the disaster in japan will cause the boj to print and print and print some more. my heart goes out to the people of japan. then they have to buy stuff, lots of stuff to rebuild the inf structure. there is still over a week till the cycle highs. so anything can happen. i felt overexposed to the present conditions of the market. yesterday the market was screaming deflation and down the road the monetization will cause the price of stuff to be higher. as i mentioned yesterday, into the cycle highs i expect the market to make highs. new highs? i dont know. alot of miners look terrible some have not been participating in the rally and their patterns , for months, look corrective. those are the ones one wants to discard. i am about 11% in cash so i still have more selling to go. but, i am comfortable right here. awaiting to see what happens over the next few days. w/revolutions, earthquakes, nuclear disasters, debt and more debt the world is a mess. the factor to remain in gold , the cause of being in the metals is sovereign debt. the rest of it is camouflage. sovereign debt is the reason to hold and own the metals. and from what i see the sovereigns are not doing what needs to be done, so there will be rallies , there will be corrections, but overall the metals will trend higher. w/ the core and bulk of money , up and down i will ride the trend. and i am quite comfortable. 2011 will mark the end of phase 2 of the bull. the table is set. each and every person who reads this thread needs to do his/her own work. your money is your responsibility. how you handle it is up to you. if you dont like riding a trend, become a politician enter office of modest/middle class means and then throw a $5million dollar wedding. these days all politicians leave office wealthy. while the rest ride the ups and downs to make $$$. in the history of the world sovereign debt has never been paid off. no fiat has ever survived in recorded history. darn, i like those odds. dharma