181 replies to this topic

[CHAx]

3-month t-bill yields "crashing" - gld/slv ratio still falling - US Dollar massive reversal today - "Something Evil This Way Comes"!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$IRX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p01795919842&a=183995324&r=624.png

stubaby

That dollar reversal was enough to keep me long. We need to push higher immediately next week or something is wrong IMHO.

[johngeorge]

KWN INTERVIEWS JAMES TURK REGARDS PM BACKWARDATION Saturday, April 2, 2011

[inamosa]

3-month t-bill yields "crashing" - gld/slv ratio still falling - US Dollar massive reversal today - "Something Evil This Way Comes"!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$IRX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p01795919842&a=183995324&r=624.png

stubaby

That dollar reversal was enough to keep me long. We need to push higher immediately next week or something is wrong IMHO.

I would say something is wrong if last week's lows are broken in gold (~$1409). I don't expect that to happen, though. The Dollar's close on Friday was very weak and is probably hinting to a breakout in gold and more new lows in the Dollar.

Edited by alysomji, 03 April 2011 - 04:06 PM.

[dharma]

have you noticed silver is in a parabolic? the top callers are coming out. the instructive part of parabolics is that it is impossible to call a top. you have to either get out in increments as it goes higher or pick your spot and say adios. oscillators will get you out way to early. this market is instructive for the future price of gold and silver. i think as is usually the case w/parabolicss almost all of the parabolic rise since august gets retraced, much to the surprise of the silver buffs. dont get me wrong i love silvers story and i do think it has more to go in this bull taking out the 52 highs of 80. but not before a meaningful correction. there are so many catalysts for price appreciation here in the metals, i dont want to hang my hat on any one of them. certainly the inability to come up w/a budget compromise while mercury is retrograde has to be up there on the list. i am about 90% invested and will stay here, unless something that i like gets taken to the woodshed. otherwise i will do battle w/what i have. i have cut down to 20positions. and my intent is to ride the remainder of the bull w/no more than 20. it makes my job easier. be on your toes here. make no mistake gold is the leader , silver is playing catchup. one more market related issue. many miners in order to survive have diluted their share structure. buyer beware. investing in miners is a tough game, but it will be very rewarding. you have to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff. it aint easy. most will be much better off playing the gdx, gdxj, sgol. i am not entirely convinced the gld, can stand scrutiny. it is best to use that one as a hedge or a short. not from the long side what gets me in all of this is, w/the disaster in japan(and its not just japan) for example , 7 tons of nuclear/radiated water is going into the ocean every hour. these guys are destroying our environment all for a buck. safe drilling by the o man is being allowed again in the gulf. safe drilling is an oxymoron . for a buck these guys will cut corners or mother nature will create an event where safe drilling is put to the test. anyway, it took millions of years to create the delicate eco system that exists on earth today. and one major event can destroy that eco system in a blink of an eye. its high time that man realizes his limitations and stopped the illusion of "safe drilling" or "safe nuclear" then there is also the issue of nuclear waste. w/o an alive ocean, the species perishes rather quickly dharma

[Ken]

I'm a little cautious here. Raymond Merriman had Friday, April 1st as a critical reversal date +/- 3 days. At the same time silver has broken out to new highs today but gold can't break above its most recent high set on March 24th. So gold is not confirming this breakout and, as a result, there's intermarket negative divergence right around a three star critical reversal date. In addition, to that I'm seeing negative divergences on the daily and hourly RSI for SLV. This can't be good in the very short term. Perhaps one more decline and then it'll be time to buy.

[dougie]

AMEN to all of that dharma!

have you noticed silver is in a parabolic? the top callers are coming out. the instructive part of parabolics is that it is impossible to call a top. you have to either get out in increments as it goes higher or pick your spot and say adios. oscillators will get you out way to early. this market is instructive for the future price of gold and silver. i think as is usually the case w/parabolicss almost all of the parabolic rise since august gets retraced, much to the surprise of the silver buffs. dont get me wrong i love silvers story and i do think it has more to go in this bull taking out the 52 highs of 80. but not before a meaningful correction.
there are so many catalysts for price appreciation here in the metals, i dont want to hang my hat on any one of them. certainly the inability to come up w/a budget compromise while mercury is retrograde has to be up there on the list. i am about 90% invested and will stay here, unless something that i like gets taken to the woodshed. otherwise i will do battle w/what i have. i have cut down to 20positions. and my intent is to ride the remainder of the bull w/no more than 20. it makes my job easier. be on your toes here. make no mistake gold is the leader , silver is playing catchup.
one more market related issue. many miners in order to survive have diluted their share structure. buyer beware. investing in miners is a tough game, but it will be very rewarding. you have to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff. it aint easy. most will be much better off playing the gdx, gdxj, sgol. i am not entirely convinced the gld, can stand scrutiny. it is best to use that one as a hedge or a short. not from the long side

what gets me in all of this is, w/the disaster in japan(and its not just japan) for example , 7 tons of nuclear/radiated water is going into the ocean every hour. these guys are destroying our environment all for a buck. safe drilling by the o man is being allowed again in the gulf. safe drilling is an oxymoron . for a buck these guys will cut corners or mother nature will create an event where safe drilling is put to the test. anyway, it took millions of years to create the delicate eco system that exists on earth today. and one major event can destroy that eco system in a blink of an eye. its high time that man realizes his limitations and stopped the illusion of "safe drilling" or "safe nuclear" then there is also the issue of nuclear waste. w/o an alive ocean, the species perishes rather quickly
dharma

[dharma]

last time i watched all the big names in the gold market "the heroes" leave the train in the 400s as the train paused for a minute and headed due north w/o them. i do my own work and base my trading around that. i like merriman, and i do read his column every week. and then i do what my work says i should. the way i figure it, i have my times of being wrong , just like everyone else. so i might as well stick w/my own work. this way i can learn from my mistakes
finally new highs. it was quite a battle , i think we run now. after this high and the next low. the market will change. the wheat will be separated from the chaff. we will have to adapt new strategies. there are over 2k miners. many will disappear into the sunset. do your homework. i had been rtraf, and got off that one awhile back. now they are having problems. more of that will be on the agenda. costs are also increasing and will be doing so on several fronts. until the majors share prices increase , expect little in the way of takeovers. if you have the time and the inclination to invest in juniors. listen to this piece. it is well worth the listen http://www.financial...or-acquisitions
43 would not surprise me on silver for this run, but it is a top guess. not something i am basing my trading on. the govt is going to run out of monopoly money.
after this top , there will be a nasty correction. prepare for it.
looks like eric is getting more gold
http://www.zerohedge...n-physical-pslv
adding fuel to the fire.
i will be lightening up , especially on the silvers. -but not yet.
dharma

[Ken]

Hi dharma, everyone should always invest based on their own work although I always appreciate your insight. I'm very appreciative of your thoughts. My comments above still stand. Gold has finally broken above the highs set on March 24th but ideally I would want to see a daily close above those highs to confirm the bull is ready for the next ride up. Also, everyone should keep in mind that mercury is retrograde right now (March 30 to April 23) and that means the markets will often not quite reach technical areas of support or resistance or they will frequently break through temporarily to simply reverse course. I wonder if that's the case here.

[dharma]

Hi dharma, everyone should always invest based on their own work although I always appreciate your insight. I'm very appreciative of your thoughts.

My comments above still stand. Gold has finally broken above the highs set on March 24th but ideally I would want to see a daily close above those highs to confirm the bull is ready for the next ride up. Also, everyone should keep in mind that mercury is retrograde right now (March 30 to April 23) and that means the markets will often not quite reach technical areas of support or resistance or they will frequently break through temporarily to simply reverse course. I wonder if that's the case here.

mercury retrograde will affect the decision making process of congress.
it will be misleading, giving false technical signals.
w/that being said, i am just following my work.
also, the saying sell in may. will prove to prophetic again .
sales in this area over the summer will seem quite prophetic.
however, i am a trader as well so i will not sell the breakout.
lets see where we go
dharma

[stubaby]

Hi dharma, everyone should always invest based on their own work although I always appreciate your insight. I'm very appreciative of your thoughts.

My comments above still stand. Gold has finally broken above the highs set on March 24th but ideally I would want to see a daily close above those highs to confirm the bull is ready for the next ride up. Also, everyone should keep in mind that mercury is retrograde right now (March 30 to April 23) and that means the markets will often not quite reach technical areas of support or resistance or they will frequently break through temporarily to simply reverse course. I wonder if that's the case here.

mercury retrograde will affect the decision making process of congress.
it will be misleading, giving false technical signals.
w/that being said, i am just following my work.
also, the saying sell in may. will prove to prophetic again .
sales in this area over the summer will seem quite prophetic.
however, i am a trader as well so i will not sell the breakout.
lets see where we go
dharma

dharma:

Weekly charts of the miners (HUI/XAU) look very positive to me - with plenty of room to the upside:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p92568532705&a=204649424&r=204.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p04556165740&a=183376213&r=9967.png

stubaby