222 replies to this topic

[dougie]

those charts of stu's rock

[dharma]

seasonals look good for sept
seasonal chart of gold
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
september looks to be a fairly good month
dharma
one last thought the miner/gold ratio is approaching 08 levels. its a back the truck up event
dharma

Edited by dharma, 26 August 2011 - 03:21 PM.

[stubaby]

dharma:

See my comment's under Kimston's thread!

Close-up View of Miner/Gold Ratio:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p56029103630&a=183376204&r=9168.png

stubaby

[stubaby]

Absent a "total" breakdown early next week the monthly VOLUME bar for GDX will be _________ (you fill in the word!):

http://stockcharts.c...87821&r=632.png

stubaby

[dharma]

stubaby- i read the thread w/kimston. when i sold the other day, i sold a large block of a thinly traded junior. it was snapped up in one gulp. that got my attention. there are big players out there snapping up what is for sale. and when the selling dissipated , we ran yesterday. barreling full bore ahead. we are in a parabolic here, which will leave traders holding devalued dollars and less gold. not the formula for building wealth in these times. i have targets sure for this move, when we hit them i will watch, not act. the game has moved to a different phase. yesterday , ben spoke. now lets see what measures the fed has at its disposal. 1 . interest rates-they are essentially @0. no room there.2 regulate the money supply. well they are going to print. this guy has studied the great depression and considers himself expert on the pitfalls that happened there. he even apologized for the feds mistakes @that time. he is going to print , pure and simple. now, the rock and the hard place has not escaped many big investors. after all , after 11years, of gold bull market . light bulbs go on. cbs were selling @the lows. gordon brown sold englands gold into the lows. ever wonder who was buying? brown was rewarded w/prime minister. so, cbs are not much better than the average investor. sovereigns have 2 choices renege or pay back w/depreciated currency. this is going to be the dance. it is not lost on those who watch. i honestly have no idea how high this leg goes. but it is going higher, and maybe substantially higher. i was a new to trading in 79. but, every time i sold , i bought back higher. that will be the case here for those who accumulate depreciating dollars. selling appreciating gold. yes , there will be shakeouts. but in parabolics corrections resemble this last one, until we have a larger correction. if i trade, it will be w/a smaller %than i do now. i can be very patient. after this rise there will be a pause. which lasts longer than we have seen. causing some doubt, some confusion. but this bull has alot more to express. the problems are sitting there waiting to be expressed. i met sinclair in 78 he was instrumental in getting me started in trading. i was a bond clipper @the time. his piece the other day made me take note. i am almost all in as of yesterday after bernake spoke.i heard him loud and clear dharma

Edited by dharma, 27 August 2011 - 11:15 AM.

[stubaby]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p87091996040&a=204649424&r=749.png

A move above 620 here would indicate a target of 750 (approx +25%). I will be looking for a breakout followed by a successful retest of top trendline to "load the boat"

A breakout "short-term" here, with the retest during the anticipated "next leg down" in the broads would be "too much to ask for?!?"

stubaby

[dougie]

the ADX is scarily set up like 08 also tow touches on the 65 week MA then like now, the thrid was the death knell. now, against this is a different backdrop, higher gold prices, less faith in fiat; but cui bono dollar devaluation here vs deflationary wipe out? Stu, would you sell a failed retest of the BO? Which line: the UT line or the top trendline?

Edited by dougie, 28 August 2011 - 06:54 PM.

[stubaby]

the ADX is scarily set up like 08
also tow touches on the 65 week MA then like now, the thrid was the death knell.
now, against this is a different backdrop, higher gold prices, less faith in fiat; but cui bono dollar devaluation here vs deflationary wipe out?

Stu, would you sell a failed retest of the BO? Which line: the UT line or the top trendline?

dougie:

Would "become more defensive" if 510 to 520 range taken out on the downside (but still have to leave room down to 480 - the bottom trendline on the weekly chart):
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=30&yr=0&mn=2&dy=19&i=p20426194454&a=234147086&r=879.png

As long as higher lows and higher highs in place off of the June low will "stick with the plan". ADX can move based on either BUYING or SELLING - for now neither is dominant.

stubaby

[stubaby]

Interesting BPI Chart for Gold and Miners from fib 1618:

Technical Watch

These are dated by one week (8/19) and PM's are slightly higher here!

stubaby

[dharma]

the difference between last time and this time for me is, this time when i sell i have been buying back cheaper. but, that is neither here nor there really. its maintaining position that is the strategy in here. volatility will continue to be high, and this is not near as high as it will get. the key will be to remain on board for the ride. i am about 90% invested. and waiting to see how this weakness unfolds. next week will be very interesting. notice food stuffs/grains. they are poised to bust a move. soybeans has built a base which it is busting out of. there is still lots of time to the long cycle for gold. watching in here. eventually there will be no leverage in the metals futures market, which suits me just fine. i chart the miners vs the metal. and the miners are very close to the 08 lows vs the metal. i dont know when , but @some point the miners will express themselves. dharma