285 replies to this topic

[dharma]

the system is a shadow of itself, it is still functioning well, but it is essentially bankrupt. several cbs have established gold buy programs. do what they do, forget about what they say. this is all a process , it takes time. and it will not happen in anyones time frame, but it will happen. a great deal of patience is required. few have patience the tendency is to avoid pain and jump in and out. yes nickels and dimes can be picked up that way. riding is not easy. i am looking for a larger correction in 12, then the 400 in 11. gold revaluation will occur , but again in its own time.
i had held auy for a long time, i am not complaining , but selling it has left me w/a good bit of cash. and the market has moved up 20%+ i may be forced to wait for 12. not going to chase or do something stupid. we have years, is my guess for this thing to reach full expression. not one limit up day yet, in this whole bull market. when the jig is up, we will have many, the public will storm in and want the metals @all costs. the next phase will find institutional investors, coming into the mining sector. of course they will buy seniors and that will set the stage for the next phase. which is how much is gold in the ground worth. and thats when the explorers and juniors get their cue. you dont want to have too many juniors @this point. it is essentially dead money.
it seemed to me that yesterday, the broads are anticipating more printing. remember stocks are real assets. in weimar stocks went up until the printing became horrific, and some companies like damlier benz did well. eventually the last man standing will be gold. now if hugo salinas can get mexico to make silver currency, and other cbs follow suit, then you have a sound argument for silver. i do think silver is going higher, and maybe alot higher. but in the hands of mostly speculators, its demise will be violent. the move from 50 to 26 will be the norm.
end of oct to mid november is not part of the seasonally strong period. Diwali just occurred and the indians stocked up on gold. next is their wedding season. 1764 is my # , above that and we could get some mojo
dharma

dharma:

...from nimblebear on the FF main board:

Think about the bondholders and those who are supposedly "volunteering" for "just" a 50% haircut. It won't be ending at 50%, it won't be ending at Greece, the holders of that debt aren't only who you think they are. When a guy like Faber says to prefer stocks over bonds for the next 10 years, its NOT b/c stocks are going to do "well." Everything is relative. Not one person on the planet is anticipating what can happen to bond and debt holders, bc until now they've been backed by fiat. Certain bond holders in 2008 got creamed, and that was a walk in the park compared to what's coming, and how widespread and deep it will be. Today was literally the turning point. There is no going back. The situation is unsalvageable, and its going to hit the US far harder than the EU.

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=135436


stubaby

stubaby, this has been a theme , that i have presented on this board. where i disagree w/nimble bear is, i think eu banks are so interwined in the debt ponzi scheme that they are all destined for the scrap heap. bond holders are very slowly leaving the bond arena, it will turn into a gallop. then where does the money go???? bond holders seek returns!
initially as interest rates are forced to rise, it will have a bearish effect on gold, and this coincides w/ my outlook for 12. slowly slowly the thing is unravel ling. you and i share the same fear- war . which is a way for the banksters to finance returns for their money, but that is a whole other topic. we will keep between us.
dharma

[stubaby]

dharma:

We are fast approaching another "inflection point" for gold - the 1,764 to 1,780 range.

I really don;t know what will happen there:

• local 'top' and back down towards 1,520 (or lower)
• acceleration "up"

At any rate I need to see 1,830 + for the "all clear" on this corretive phase, IMHO.

stubaby

[dharma]

dharma:

We are fast approaching another "inflection point" for gold - the 1,764 to 1,780 range.

I really don;t know what will happen there:

• local 'top' and back down towards 1,520 (or lower)
• acceleration "up"

At any rate I need to see 1,830 + for the "all clear" on this corretive phase, IMHO.

stubaby

in one sense its a tough call, 1764( as per a gann technique, it is also sinclairs inflection point, we talked about these #s jg) is an inflection point . no doubt
however the seasonals remain supportive.
and the short cycle is up into december.
so in bull markets, i give the benefit of the doubt to the bull
of course we shall see.
ben davies did an interesting adjustment to the seasonals on kwn.
dharma

[stubaby]

Precious Metals BPI from Technical Watch

[tradermama]

Precious Metals BPI from Technical Watch

Hi Stubaby,
I subscribe to Dorsey's PNF....the price objective which of course can change is $2044 for gold from a Double Top pattern on 10/25......presently the weekly momentum is positive however we do have 18 X's (overbought on demand) which typically will mean a reversal should be coming soon back to Os (supply) but that will won't negate the Double Top breakout pattern till we hit 1604..till then it would mean buy the dip. Of course, you have to use regular TA to determine if momentum is picking up to the downside.

If we just touch 1604, we then will test those lows again as that would be a sell for PNF. That too could change if we have some up and down action. Then the sell would come at a higher level.

Now, if we touch 1740 before touching 1756, then we will reverse to O (supply taking over demand) but that could just satisfy the 18 X's alert which we just got last week and could reverse back to X eventually. From there, we would use regular TA to watch support and momentum to the downside..A reversal back to X could produce a more reliable pattern than the double top which happened on 10/25. Some of these patterns have better odds than others and of course the Double Top in PNF is not the same as a double top in regular TA. Thanks for all your great charts. I've been using Dorsey's PNF since 2000. It's good for trends and to eliminate a lot of the noise..It doesn't care about volume just supply and demand based on buy and sell signal like it said in that link. But, you have to combine it with regular TA too

TM

Edited by tradermama, 30 October 2011 - 07:33 AM.

[stubaby]

Precious Metals BPI from Technical Watch

Hi Stubaby,
I subscribe to Dorsey's PNF....the price objective which of course can change is $2044 for gold from a Double Top pattern on 10/25......presently the weekly momentum is positive however we do have 18 X's (overbought on demand) which typically will mean a reversal should be coming soon back to Os (supply) but that will won't negate the Double Top breakout pattern till we hit 1604..till then it would mean buy the dip. Of course, you have to use regular TA to determine if momentum is picking up to the downside.

If we just touch 1604, we then will test those lows again as that would be a sell for PNF. That too could change if we have some up and down action. Then the sell would come at a higher level.

Now, if we touch 1740 before touching 1756, then we will reverse to O (supply taking over demand) but that could just satisfy the 18 X's alert which we just got last week and could reverse back to X eventually. From there, we would use regular TA to watch support and momentum to the downside..A reversal back to X could produce a more reliable pattern than the double top which happened on 10/25. Some of these patterns have better odds than others and of course the Double Top in PNF is not the same as a double top in regular TA. Thanks for all your great charts. I've been using Dorsey's PNF since 2000. It's good for trends and to eliminate a lot of the noise..It doesn't care about volume just supply and demand based on buy and sell signal like it said in that link. But, you have to combine it with regular TA too

TM

tradermama:

Thanks - I use the "basic" Pnf charts available at Stockcharts on a regular baisis along with Elliot Wave as a "Check" against my primary TA. Sometimes when they ALL lineup in the same direction my confidence will increase! Also, oftentimes I can anticipate these alignments and make probing or initial entrys with tight stops and add with confirmation. Because I am an IT or swing trader I tend to build positions over time and sell the same way.

Thanks again for your regular inputs - they are very helpful (especially when I need to 'pull-back' from the day-to-day and keep focused on the Big Picture!)

stubaby

[dharma]

gold ralled 200 off the 1530 lows. now its pulled back about 25% of that rally , @todays lows. of course there is a possibility, that this was just a correction. i dont give this a high probability, but it is a consideration. the short cycle tops out in december, so i am playing it accordingly. when majors get beat up, like aem, i have to give them a hard look. it presents a rare opportunity. i hear and read alot of talk about the miners catching up to the price of gold. i have no doubt that this will happen, the question is when? in the sequence of unfolding in the bull, next up will be institutions entering the fray, buying the larger cap miners. when that happens is anyones guess. i am mentally pepared to hold this stuff for years. against all the fiats i expect the pm sector to outperform. yes, there are foodstuffs and energy, but i saw last time, that gold/silver outprformed all commodities. 12 as an election year will require alot of spending. and of course as time marches foward, there will be ever increasing volatility. buy weakness and sell strength. will be the drill dharma

[stubaby]

dharma:

• Interesting "bounce" for Gold of off that critical 1,705 level in the futures overnight
• 3rd time for Yen intervention this year, as the Japanese "fight" Yen repatriation flows for reconstruction money - what a losing battle
• HUI Wave 2 complete or nearly so

stubaby

[dharma]

dharma:

• Interesting "bounce" for Gold of off that critical 1,705 level in the futures overnight
• 3rd time for Yen intervention this year, as the Japanese "fight" Yen repatriation flows for reconstruction money - what a losing battle
• HUI Wave 2 complete or nearly so

stubaby

stubaby, yes the move in gold today is counterintuitive. the japanese sell yen to devalue their currency to improve imports. this so they can reconstruct after their devastating earthquake and tsunami. yes, i agree this down move is almost complete. 1697 still a possibility . tomorrow is the fed. all these fiats are in competitive devaluations against each other. and of course against gold they will seek true value.
the only question to my mind is when do the miners achieve fair value
dharma

[dougie]

will the miners diverge here with commodities as EURO, OIL, and USD alll argue that risk assets are in trouble here IT