239 replies to this topic

[dharma]

markets are made of diverse opinions and factors. good to hear your input ken. i dont think a significant decline can take place from the present position of the miners , they are already sold out as evidenced by the miners . in bulls the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the prevailing primary trend. my understanding of reading ray is , he thinks its highly possible that a significant low has occurred, and more importantly (to me anyway) is that is what i think. and sentiment is still very low. in spite of gold being up almost 150 from the lows. sure i could be wrong, i am not a trader anyway. i take positions. and hold them. i trade w/very little in my account % wise that i trade. dharma

[tradermama]

markets are made of diverse opinions and factors. good to hear your input ken. i dont think a significant decline can take place from the present position of the miners , they are already sold out as evidenced by the miners . in bulls the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the prevailing primary trend. my understanding of reading ray is , he thinks its highly possible that a significant low has occurred, and more importantly (to me anyway) is that is what i think. and sentiment is still very low. in spite of gold being up almost 150 from the lows. sure i could be wrong, i am not a trader anyway. i take positions. and hold them. i trade w/very little in my account % wise that i trade.
dharma

Also I wanted to comment on pnf..which Dorsey shows a bell curve from the lowest bullish percent to the highest...the precious metal group is in the 18-20% range..which is very low risk..yes, it can go to 0-10% which is the next range down but again, we are either at a bottom or a bottoming process. Out of all the index groups, the Precious Metals are on the lowest in the bell curve. We are at extremes in the broads and I wouldn't be surprise if you see rotation going into the metals. Let's face it the handwriting is on the wall where printing will have to be the only way to go..and I think gold is sniffing that we..either inflate or die. Risk/reward is low...despite up $150..long term view is what I'm speaking about.....and this could be one time if one hasn't ever been a long term investor to not trade imo. As timing gold and silver can be very hard and you could end up chasing it.
TM

[tria]

markets are made of diverse opinions and factors. good to hear your input ken. i dont think a significant decline can take place from the present position of the miners , they are already sold out as evidenced by the miners . in bulls the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the prevailing primary trend. my understanding of reading ray is , he thinks its highly possible that a significant low has occurred, and more importantly (to me anyway) is that is what i think. and sentiment is still very low. in spite of gold being up almost 150 from the lows. sure i could be wrong, i am not a trader anyway. i take positions. and hold them. i trade w/very little in my account % wise that i trade.
dharma

Also I wanted to comment on pnf..which Dorsey shows a bell curve from the lowest bullish percent to the highest...the precious metal group is in the 18-20% range..which is very low risk..yes, it can go to 0-10% which is the next range down but again, we are either at a bottom or a bottoming process. Out of all the index groups, the Precious Metals are on the lowest in the bell curve. We are at extremes in the broads and I wouldn't be surprise if you see rotation going into the metals. Let's face it the handwriting is on the wall where printing will have to be the only way to go..and I think gold is sniffing that we..either inflate or die. Risk/reward is low...despite up $150..long term view is what I'm speaking about.....and this could be one time if one hasn't ever been a long term investor to not trade imo. As timing gold and silver can be very hard and you could end up chasing it.
TM

By the way, Terry Laundry finally admitted defeat of his ringing cycle low, now, or early next week, resulting on any serious S&P drop, and is in fact looking for a new bulish leg lasting about 4-5 weeks.
Me and another Forum member are the only ones long the PM's. Most are not interested at all, some are waiting to buy lower, and a few are selling short.

$GOLD:$SILVER is now bearish (good for Silver)

Have a nice weekend all.
-tria

[tradermama]

markets are made of diverse opinions and factors. good to hear your input ken. i dont think a significant decline can take place from the present position of the miners , they are already sold out as evidenced by the miners . in bulls the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the prevailing primary trend. my understanding of reading ray is , he thinks its highly possible that a significant low has occurred, and more importantly (to me anyway) is that is what i think. and sentiment is still very low. in spite of gold being up almost 150 from the lows. sure i could be wrong, i am not a trader anyway. i take positions. and hold them. i trade w/very little in my account % wise that i trade.
dharma

Also I wanted to comment on pnf..which Dorsey shows a bell curve from the lowest bullish percent to the highest...the precious metal group is in the 18-20% range..which is very low risk..yes, it can go to 0-10% which is the next range down but again, we are either at a bottom or a bottoming process. Out of all the index groups, the Precious Metals are on the lowest in the bell curve. We are at extremes in the broads and I wouldn't be surprise if you see rotation going into the metals. Let's face it the handwriting is on the wall where printing will have to be the only way to go..and I think gold is sniffing that we..either inflate or die. Risk/reward is low...despite up $150..long term view is what I'm speaking about.....and this could be one time if one hasn't ever been a long term investor to not trade imo. As timing gold and silver can be very hard and you could end up chasing it.
TM

By the way, Terry Laundry finally admitted defeat of his ringing cycle low, now, or early next week, resulting on any serious S&P drop, and is in fact looking for a new bulish leg lasting about 4-5 weeks.
Me and another Forum member are the only ones long the PM's. Most are not interested at all, some are waiting to buy lower, and a few are selling short.

$GOLD:$SILVER is now bearish (good for Silver)

Have a nice weekend all.
-tria

LOL!..I was wondering if he would..he was so sure of a lower low from October's low. His cycle work is done by Parker and again, since I've followed them, there has been times right and times wrong..nothing to hang your hat on. To me, I was seeing the possibility of breaking 2011 highs if not higher based on point and figure. The spy has now as of yesterday got a Triple Top Buy which broke the Oct's high's and now has a positive momentum that can last 7 weeks or so. Last time this happened it had an 18% return from October 2010 to May of last year. So, what he now says goes in in with pnf too. What gave me more of the clue was some of the patterns that were lining up with tech. So we shall see. Hitting 1200 on the spx would be a sell and cancel this.
Thanks for your update, Tria..have a good weekend too
TM

Edited by tradermama, 20 January 2012 - 02:03 PM.

[dougie]

sure enough, silver soaring, miners falling the buy metals sell miners play has been a sure winner

[tria]

sure enough, silver soaring, miners falling
the buy metals sell miners play has been a sure winner

Maybe options expirations dirty games? We will see.

-tria

[dharma]

the hedgies trade is long the metal short the miners. @some point they will be forced to cover that trade. as bad as the sentiment got , going into the 1523 lows, there are still analysts and common folks chomping @the bit to hop on board. as usual for this sector , they will jump on board , once the breakout is proclaimed by the analysts. then shortly thereafter they will be introduced to the back of the woodshed. paas has made an offer to buy mfn this am. putting a smile on mfn holders. a little luck and alot of research helps to uncover these gems. i have held this one for quite some time. tomorrow is an interesting day, mars goes retrograde till mid april for me the action is in feb. dharma

[tria]

the hedgies trade is long the metal short the miners. @some point they will be forced to cover that trade. as bad as the sentiment got , going into the 1523 lows, there are still analysts and common folks chomping @the bit to hop on board. as usual for this sector , they will jump on board , once the breakout is proclaimed by the analysts. then shortly thereafter they will be introduced to the back of the woodshed.
paas has made an offer to buy mfn this am. putting a smile on mfn holders. a little luck and alot of research helps to uncover these gems. i have held this one for quite some time.
tomorrow is an interesting day, mars goes retrograde till mid april
for me the action is in feb.
dharma

dharma

GDX:$GOLD is at the same low levels as was in March 2009. Something has to give soooooon.

-tria

[tria]

dharma, Bravo ref mfn, and wish you many similar sucessful discoveries. kimston has now a possible 1/27 +/-1day turning point on stks and metals, does not know of its polarity. Any ideas? -tria

[johngeorge]

New Moon today. Links to 3 year weekly charts: $USD SLV GLD