239 replies to this topic

[Ken]

My 2 cents on precious metals these days. The long term cycle lows for gold (17 & 34 month cycle) and silver (36 month cycle) are in since both metals closed above their 45 day moving average a few trading days ago. I don't expect gold or silver to trade below their lows of Dec 28, 2011 for a long time. That said I wonder if a short term pullback isn't just around the corner. Raymond Merriman had a critical reversal date for gold and silver on January 18th but nothing really happened unless the low of Jan 13th was the reversal. However, he also wrote in his 2012 Forecast book that the critical reversal date could be closer to Jan 24th give or take 3 trading days. Now I don't know why but Merriman also stated in his 2012 Forecast book that markets may experience large price swings, especially gold and silver, between January 6 through January 23rd. However, markets could become bearish towards the end of this time period or very soon afterwards. Well it's soon afterwards from January 23rd but so far it seems very bullish - not bearish! Spot silver is currently trading around $33.81. Weekly resistance for silver is $33.54. A trade above $33.54 followed by a close below is a bearish trigger so I'll be watching that price level very closely as the markets approach the close on Friday.

[tradermama]

My 2 cents on precious metals these days.

The long term cycle lows for gold (17 & 34 month cycle) and silver (36 month cycle) are in since both metals closed above their 45 day moving average a few trading days ago. I don't expect gold or silver to trade below their lows of Dec 28, 2011 for a long time.

That said I wonder if a short term pullback isn't just around the corner. Raymond Merriman had a critical reversal date for gold and silver on January 18th but nothing really happened unless the low of Jan 13th was the reversal. However, he also wrote in his 2012 Forecast book that the critical reversal date could be closer to Jan 24th give or take 3 trading days.

Now I don't know why but Merriman also stated in his 2012 Forecast book that markets may experience large price swings, especially gold and silver, between January 6 through January 23rd. However, markets could become bearish towards the end of this time period or very soon afterwards. Well it's soon afterwards from January 23rd but so far it seems very bullish - not bearish!

Spot silver is currently trading around $33.81. Weekly resistance for silver is $33.54. A trade above $33.54 followed by a close below is a bearish trigger so I'll be watching that price level very closely as the markets approach the close on Friday.

That's what happens when you have Fed intervention..even happened to Laundry as he changed his tune for the next month..also if silver touches 34..that's significantly bullish..it's a pnf buy signal....we hit 33.92..it's just a matter of time..I would not short silver..it's a beast of its own..even typical TA can be distorted where you think it should go down after a reversal day, can fool you if this is as manipulated as it has been stated..that's my 2 cents too fwiw..LOL!..

GDX just got a pnf buy signal. It's all lining up for a good run.

TM

[dharma]

in 29 the then fed governor , called in a bunch of wealthy biz people , joe kennedy included. told them he was going to raise rates. they proceeded to short the crap out of the market. yesterday, the fed for whatever reason, made its intentions known to all of us. i have been saying that the 1523 was the lows , it had all the earmarks of a low, bullishness, after 10-11 years of bull market was through the floor.0003% . , oversold w/daily divergences. i bought , i loaded the boat. i agree w/merriman, thanks ken for providing his analysis. the move from 1925-1523 is the kind of market we are in store for, the risk trades will get too bullish, the risk trades will take an unmerciful beating. the volatility will be off the charts. in a way a traders dream. i know that i will miss some of the turns, so i hold most in a core and trade a small % to insure that if the gold market goes to the sky, i will be on board. its how the money is made. w/this announcement yesterday, i expect institutions to be picking up gold producers. stu and i had conversations on aem on the forum, stu provided his 1st rate charts. were we the only 2 buying this major lying bloody in the gutter. of course there are others. buy weakness , sell strength. we broke the pennant on the gold chart. @some point all the bearish advisers will jump in w/both feet, they too heard the fed. make no mistake we are a ways away from the parabolic, we will be taken to the woodshed several times more before that occurs. alf says he expects 2 13% declines. we shall see. the other day, i talked on natural gas. i said that i am looking for an island bottom, all of these chart patterns are in edwards and magee everyone in this bis should have read this book , cover to cover @least once. ng was textbook. break away gap , breakaway gap, exhaustion gap, bottom. well now we have an island bottom in ng. sure the oversupply will continue. but soon @some point politicians will give boone pickens their ear. we have an abundance of ng, why not switch 18wheelers to ng? bye bye overabundance. all commodities are going to do well, its a matter of degree. i do best by focusing, being an expert in one field. so, its my mo. when these things start to run, it will become too much to watch so many things. s&r will hold for hours. not days and weeks. @some point this game will end, as beautiful and amazing a story as gold is, money for 5k years. it will go beyond what valuation should be. read jsmineset.com. i know jim, he was around for the last bull, he has experience, there is no substitute for experience. the rest of em , i am not so sure of although i read em all. but, i do my own work come to my own conclusions. its my money. i have to take responsibility. my other essential read is jesse livermore. forget the person, read his words they are the deliberations of all traders. do your homework. know what you are doing. someone posts a date, and folks decide it is a high or low, having no idea how that guy came up w/that date. what a joke. and they state w/impunity its a high or low. i come up w/these dates, and i dont know if its a high or a low dharma

[stubaby]

dharma:

Haven't had time to post of late but here are my observations:

Only 2 viable EW counts remaining for GOLD and 1 outlier:

Completing Wave D of triangle here with Wave E to follow towards +- 1,600 (50%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251890507&r=3518.png

Completing Wave 1 of new impulse Wave Up with Wave 2 to follow: (40%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251442954&r=141.png

Outlier - Completing Wave B now with entire Wave C ahead (10%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251439079&r=164.png

The character and depth of the next corrective should eliminate the outlier and help solidify one or the other of the viable counts.

stubaby

Traders want to know - "IS IT REAL OR IS IT MEMOREX?" I'm calling this impulse the precursor to the 'real trending impulse higher" - If it's a 'typical' Wave 2, i.e, sharp and hard down - I predict that few will buy it and those that jumped aboard yesterday will bail! PERFECT!

[dharma]

ken- fwiw,i think the feb 7th full moon will produce the high, from there, we will correct. shake out the weak hands, and a new impulse. the full moon has some gann factors that traderama and i have discussed. yes , the woodshed is always in the rear view mirror. i do think paas taking out mfn is a shot across the bow. juniors are undervalued. majors have diminishing supply. dharma

Edited by dharma, 26 January 2012 - 02:38 PM.

[senorBS]

dharma:

Haven't had time to post of late but here are my observations:

Only 2 viable EW counts remaining for GOLD and 1 outlier:

Completing Wave D of triangle here with Wave E to follow towards +- 1,600 (50%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251890507&r=3518.png

Completing Wave 1 of new impulse Wave Up with Wave 2 to follow: (40%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251442954&r=141.png

Outlier - Completing Wave B now with entire Wave C ahead (10%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251439079&r=164.png

The character and depth of the next corrective should eliminate the outlier and help solidify one or the other of the viable counts.

stubaby

Traders want to know - "IS IT REAL OR IS IT MEMOREX?" I'm calling this impulse the precursor to the 'real trending impulse higher" - If it's a 'typical' Wave 2, i.e, sharp and hard down - I predict that few will buy it and those that jumped aboard yesterday will bail! PERFECT!

with all respect amigo how can this be a contracting triangle when wave "c" as you label it clearly went below wave "a" on both daily and weekly print and close only charts? - no way that is a valid count. That was a simple abc decline from the highh and nort she goes.

NO BS

Senor

[dharma]

i woke up deliberating w/myself to start a new thread and call it recognition! elaborate man! well it seems clear to me that 2 of the main buyers of bonds: china and japan are having domestic problems of their own, china had been scaling back on its purchases a while back. and w/the terrible natural disasters in japan, not to mention decades of contraction, are no longer able to make bond purchases. they are in rebuilding their country mode. the fed has pledged to keep rates low till 2014. how can they do that???????? in a word print. it took 200 years up till reagan to get our deficits to almost 1trillion. now that happens every 6months. that will be financed by the press. which is what the fed head made us all privy to the other day. i used only charts for my guide for about 20years, now i throw fundamentals into the salad and feel more comfortable doing so. they will manage the situation as long as they can, which means the woodshed is never far away, and when it is well in the rear view mirror , you will be confronted w/the most difficult financial decision of your investing career-------sell your gold. it will be nothing but blue skies for gold. it will be extremely difficult and everyone else will be buying. one other thing of importance for those who own miners: paas has made a 15.6 offer for mfn. if you own mfn or not here is the importance. mfn has a significant silver mine , which they are building out. it is on the low side for an offer, but the board of mfn has accepted the offer so1 does another suitor come in 2 will the deal go down. it is reasonably good for both parties , but i think paas gets the better deal. so if it does down, it tells me the juniors are still way undervalued and there will be a wave of major buying to replace their diminishing reserves . stay tuned it can reveal something of the state of the juniors. dharma i am in no hurry to do anything there, not sure what i will do if the deal goes through????

[stubaby]

dharma:

One possible HUI count:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p86479546024&a=251986855&r=9722.png


stubaby

[stubaby]

dharma:

Haven't had time to post of late but here are my observations:

Only 2 viable EW counts remaining for GOLD and 1 outlier:

Completing Wave D of triangle here with Wave E to follow towards +- 1,600 (50%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251890507&r=3518.png

Completing Wave 1 of new impulse Wave Up with Wave 2 to follow: (40%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251442954&r=141.png

Outlier - Completing Wave B now with entire Wave C ahead (10%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251439079&r=164.png

The character and depth of the next corrective should eliminate the outlier and help solidify one or the other of the viable counts.

stubaby

Traders want to know - "IS IT REAL OR IS IT MEMOREX?" I'm calling this impulse the precursor to the 'real trending impulse higher" - If it's a 'typical' Wave 2, i.e, sharp and hard down - I predict that few will buy it and those that jumped aboard yesterday will bail! PERFECT!

with all respect amigo how can this be a contracting triangle when wave "c" as you label it clearly went below wave "a" on both daily and weekly print and close only charts? - no way that is a valid count. That was a simple abc decline from the highh and nort she goes.

NO BS

Senor

Senor BS:

Wave C ended at 1,562 - Wave A at 1,535 by this count??? Hopefully it can be eliminated with Gold printing well above 1,750!


stubaby

[johngeorge]

So far today I like what I see. S&P down .49% HUI up 2.39% Out performance good to see, but, HUI has a ways to go to break out of its year long trading range of ~500 to ~600.