22 replies to this topic

[Lee48]

on the same page as Charles Nenner with a 2012 top that may already be in. But no real severe tanking till early 2013 with the 120 yr cycle low due in 2014.

Mr. Kress, whose namesake Kress cycles have presciently forecast many of the important turning points in the market over the years, recently published his annual Special Edition forecast for the years 2012-2014. Entitled "Special Edition XII: A Comprehensive Perspective," the report provides insights on what investors can expect heading into the final, fateful years of the 120-year cycle.

In his previous Special Edition XI, Kress discussed the likelihood based on the yearly cycles that a major stock market high will occur in 2012. The assumption is that in 2013 a severe, potentially historic decline will begin to last until later 2014 when the Grand Super Cycle of 120 years bottoms.

http://www.safehaven...-stocks-economy

[DrSP]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...7&listNum=1

I posted this monthly chart 6 months back with a slightly bullish view. The chart updates. While I was not much sure of the bias at that time, I noted that major accident has been averted. At this time, I don't see any "topping" on this chart. I am busy today, so I cannot post a detailed message. Based on this (or tweaked versions of SPX/ DJI/ COMPX/ NDX) if anyone can conclude that a top has been formed, I would be interested to read that.

[fib_1618]

on the same page as Charles Nenner with a 2012 top that may already be in.

There is still absolutely NOTHING at all suggesting a tradable stock market top in any way, shape or form.

In fact, actual breadth data continues to get stronger and stronger with each passing week.

The markets talk very eloquently...better to listen to what it's saying then the whole host of doom and gloom authors who continue to make money off one's fear of what they don't understand or can't control

Fib

[andr99]

on the same page as Charles Nenner with a 2012 top that may already be in.

There is still absolutely NOTHING at all suggesting a tradable stock market top in any way, shape or form.

In fact, actual breadth data continues to get stronger and stronger with each passing week.

The markets talk very eloquently...better to listen to what it's saying then the whole host of doom and gloom authors who continue to make money off one's fear of what they don't understand or can't control

Fib

Hey fib I was missing you so here I am indirectly replying to you. Read again what the poster posted. Cycle analysis it's named. You should write to the guy who made the forecast and tell him you don' t like it and suggest him your breadth analysis

[fib_1618]

Cycle analysis it's named.

I read the post. I've also read most of Cliff's ramblings since he started his business about 10 years ago as well.

But unless the market dynamics fit any cyclical work, this kind of information is nice to know, but it's nothing more than a distraction in building wealth.

Now...go back to missing me...thanks.

Fib

[Lee48]

This weekends cycle guru Mr T made mention of a major top. But he gave no details as to why or even covered his indicators. Maybe Roger knows more about what he's thinking. I don't see Mr T as a true cycle guy. He guessed the top might be in 2014. The bull market up 5 yrs like the last one. But his date will change as the market changes, like it's doing for him now. And 2020 for a low. A 2014 low would blow that out of the water. One things for sure, if any one of these gurus manages to call the top and massive tankage correct their guru status will jump 10 fold and subcribers will flood in as CNBC calls them every wk for an exclusive interview....

[fib_1618]

One things for sure, if any one of these gurus manages to call the top and massive tankage correct their guru status will jump 10 fold and subscribers will flood in as CNBC calls them every wk for an exclusive interview....

Yes, 15 minutes of fame sure goes a long way in this business where you can be wrong 99% of the time and still make millions.

Then again, even a broken clock is right at least twice a day too.

It's always fascinating how we tend to attach ourselves to those who agree with our opinions, and then radically chastise others who don't agree without even taking the time to at least walk a mile in their shoes before criticizing.

Let's see...any more cliches I can think of?

Nope...that about does it.

Thanks for the posts Lee.

Fib

[Lee48]

Don't be a hater Fib. Life's too short. Most of these cycle guys didn't just show up to spread fear to gain subscribers with their forecasts like others do. They had their forecast for yrs. Even the sun has cycles for being most active and a quiet period. Next most active peaks in 2013. Do you want to argue with that to?

[fib_1618]

Do you want to argue with that to?

I'm not arguing on the point of cyclical forecasting as having redeeming value. As you know I also use a lot of cyclical cadence in my work as well.

But the main point here is that whether these same forecasts are market based or economic cycles, as with everything analytical, it helps dramatically if market dynamics agree that either cycle peaks or troughs can even provide the desired result of ones forecast.

So...right now...at this time..."There is still absolutely NOTHING at all suggesting a tradable stock market top in any way, shape or form."

If one doesn't agree with the comment, take it up with the flow of money. I am just a mere conduit.

Fib

[arbman]

If a cycle analyst cannot find the data to actually extract the cycle information from various instruments for the said time frame being forecasted and determine the same behavior in all of these instruments with a certain lead or lag time, do not use it. Cycles require at least 2.5x period of data to predict with certain accuracy at least, so in order to predict 120 year cycles, you would need about 2.5 x 120 = 300 years of data, and mere calendar events will not suffice to determine the effectiveness of the cycle, there are many cycles influencing the prices at the same time, you do need the proper data to find all cycles interacting. Without analytical basis to determine the exact cycle magnitude, noise and period backed by the statistical evidence from many instruments, the whole work must be DISCREDITED. Honestly, the cyclical chart depicted in that article is what my son --he is 9-- can come up with while doodling one a piece of paper... The entire work is S H I T.