22 replies to this topic

[sluzbenik1]

I haven't been on this board in 5 years. Lost interest. Bought some stuff in the crash in 2008 though. Not enough, though. Go me. Decided to take interest again, and I use my own psychology as a reverse sentiment indicator sometimes. Top's in-nish. I agree with the cycles though - but I disagree with an extremely pessimistic outlook. Retail has not really participated, as you can see from the funds numbers Gary Smith posted. So, trading range. I predict a pretty wide one, 1200-1450, as a result of money shifting out of bonds just in time to catch what the retail investor always gets - jack shinola. I like to overlay charts - see 1976. Can one of you cycle guys post some of the longer term cycles out to next year? After a trading range, I'd be looking for a blow-out and I'm pretty sure from what I'm seeing posted around, cycles should concur, but I'd be interested to analyze them vis-a-vis 77-78 in particular.

[thespookyone]

"Honestly, the cyclical chart depicted in that article is what my son --he is 9-- can come up with while doodling one a piece of paper... The entire work is S H I T." But Arb, how do you really feel about the work, don't hold back On the other end-nice work by you lately, my friend-congrats.

[bln]

New top calls every month (or is it every week?). Remember well how everyone was screaming bear market in august 2011, but for a top to be make both price AND time has to be right, in 2011 both price and time was wrong for a secular top to be make. Well my long term prediction of a test of the secular range is still open, conservative target of SPX >1450 but probably >1500