Cycle guru number 4 Bud Kress seems to be
#1
Posted 28 April 2012 - 02:55 PM
Mr. Kress, whose namesake Kress cycles have presciently forecast many of the important turning points in the market over the years, recently published his annual Special Edition forecast for the years 2012-2014. Entitled "Special Edition XII: A Comprehensive Perspective," the report provides insights on what investors can expect heading into the final, fateful years of the 120-year cycle.
In his previous Special Edition XI, Kress discussed the likelihood based on the yearly cycles that a major stock market high will occur in 2012. The assumption is that in 2013 a severe, potentially historic decline will begin to last until later 2014 when the Grand Super Cycle of 120 years bottoms.
http://www.safehaven...-stocks-economy
#2
Posted 28 April 2012 - 04:23 PM
I posted this monthly chart 6 months back with a slightly bullish view. The chart updates. While I was not much sure of the bias at that time, I noted that major accident has been averted. At this time, I don't see any "topping" on this chart. I am busy today, so I cannot post a detailed message. Based on this (or tweaked versions of SPX/ DJI/ COMPX/ NDX) if anyone can conclude that a top has been formed, I would be interested to read that.
#3
Posted 28 April 2012 - 04:29 PM
There is still absolutely NOTHING at all suggesting a tradable stock market top in any way, shape or form.on the same page as Charles Nenner with a 2012 top that may already be in.
In fact, actual breadth data continues to get stronger and stronger with each passing week.
The markets talk very eloquently...better to listen to what it's saying then the whole host of doom and gloom authors who continue to make money off one's fear of what they don't understand or can't control
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#4
Posted 28 April 2012 - 05:49 PM
There is still absolutely NOTHING at all suggesting a tradable stock market top in any way, shape or form.on the same page as Charles Nenner with a 2012 top that may already be in.
In fact, actual breadth data continues to get stronger and stronger with each passing week.
The markets talk very eloquently...better to listen to what it's saying then the whole host of doom and gloom authors who continue to make money off one's fear of what they don't understand or can't control
Fib
Hey fib I was missing you so here I am indirectly replying to you. Read again what the poster posted. Cycle analysis it's named. You should write to the guy who made the forecast and tell him you don' t like it and suggest him your breadth analysis
forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard
#5
Posted 28 April 2012 - 06:02 PM
I read the post. I've also read most of Cliff's ramblings since he started his business about 10 years ago as well.Cycle analysis it's named.
But unless the market dynamics fit any cyclical work, this kind of information is nice to know, but it's nothing more than a distraction in building wealth.
Now...go back to missing me...thanks.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#6
Posted 28 April 2012 - 07:39 PM
#7
Posted 28 April 2012 - 08:05 PM
Yes, 15 minutes of fame sure goes a long way in this business where you can be wrong 99% of the time and still make millions.One things for sure, if any one of these gurus manages to call the top and massive tankage correct their guru status will jump 10 fold and subscribers will flood in as CNBC calls them every wk for an exclusive interview....
Then again, even a broken clock is right at least twice a day too.
It's always fascinating how we tend to attach ourselves to those who agree with our opinions, and then radically chastise others who don't agree without even taking the time to at least walk a mile in their shoes before criticizing.
Let's see...any more cliches I can think of?
Nope...that about does it.
Thanks for the posts Lee.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#8
Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:10 PM
#9
Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:56 PM
I'm not arguing on the point of cyclical forecasting as having redeeming value. As you know I also use a lot of cyclical cadence in my work as well.Do you want to argue with that to?
But the main point here is that whether these same forecasts are market based or economic cycles, as with everything analytical, it helps dramatically if market dynamics agree that either cycle peaks or troughs can even provide the desired result of ones forecast.
So...right now...at this time..."There is still absolutely NOTHING at all suggesting a tradable stock market top in any way, shape or form."
If one doesn't agree with the comment, take it up with the flow of money. I am just a mere conduit.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#10
Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:47 AM