143 replies to this topic

[fluid]

I don't see any evidence at all of a bull market or resumption of the uptrend. APART from the bollinger banks. We have had a bouncy in the past few dayz I agree.

[dougie]

"I don't see any evidence at all of a bull market" Really: pull up a monthly chart and tell me that.

[fluid]

top 2011?

[dharma]

Of gold and charts......Here is a PNF chart of gold. It indicates we may have ~ $100 to go yet on the downside. In addition we have a full moon coming June 4th and a major Bradley turn date on June 12th. IMO the fundamentals for gold remain and it is the place to be for the next several years.

having participated in this dance before, i can tell you that few will ride the parabolic. as you state jg, the fundamentals for rising gold prices remain intact, and are not even being addressed. none the less its very easy to be guided by charts, rather than the prevailing winds. yes, @times the market allows one to look and feel like a genius. and that is the hook. make no mistake, this will not be easy. studying past parabolics help. on the weekly gold chart , this consolidation/correction is rivaling the longest to date. i believe, whenever this completes, we will step into the next phase of the bull. there will be more and more reasons to miss the moves. its the nature of the beast. i am watching the miners for clues as to if they have put in a major bottom here. there is no doubt the miners are cheap. but is this a major bottom? to continue to ride is not easy w/o conviction. and that conviction comes from having studied other parabolics. and of course from having studied the history of fiats/money. sure holding the miners looks to have been stupid, lets talk in a few years
dharma

Dharma, there is no parabolic. Its a bear market, and the parabola was last year.

Its a slope of hope here. Classico. Buying all the way dawwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

you will be correct for a short period of time.
good luck w/your analysis
dharma

[dharma]

although i think this summer is going to be tough on the bulls, i am seeing signs that this correction has served its purpose. 12 years of higher highs, then one year of a severe correction(thinking of the miners here) and calls all over the place for the end of the bull market. this is what is supposed to happen in corrections. and what will happen if gold gets into the 1200s in the summer??? imagine the sentiment then! or even if the 1520s lows are broken? the bull wants to take as few investors as possible. many investors have been forced to leave the sector. they leveraged their positions and were heavy in the juniors. other disgusted investors have left. my question is what in the sovereign debt crises has been resolved? if anything , the situation has gotten worse. there heen a huge transfer of wealth. it seems to me the landscape is being set up for more monetization. in the normal movement of markets there is an ebb and flow. that occurs until a market goes into a parabolic. and that is the case here in the gold market. put up a monthly chart. in the course of this bull , there have been several consolidations, w/upside resolutions as the result. this present correction/consolidation is longer. i do not think that it is over. i see an event occurring soon. which will let some more air out of the gold market and set the stage for the next phase of the bull. no one said that riding a bull is easy. look @apple along the way , and i am going back a ways. they were flirting w/bankruptcy. jobs was ousted , and other than their die hard fans they offered little. a word on the miners. i started trading in late 78 early 79. so i did not experience the entire run from 72(nixon closed the gold window creating the dollar as fiat) -the 80 conclusion. so what i saw was this . the explorers were valued based on the gold in the ground. that is coming, it seems far away here(and it is ) but it is coming. majors were cash cows, they mined money, wealth, and were sound investments. today some majors were offering 21/2 % dividends and begging for investment. all of this will change as we go into phase 3 of the bull. most here have not studied entire bull runs or bear runs for that matter. and bumps in the road inevitably occur and proclaim the end of the bull. i have never seen a bull market end any other way but in a parabolic blowoff. real estate , stodgy real estate was going up 30-40% a year. in 2005-2007 it too topped. its how bulls end . in some areas of the country prices literally collapsed. i sold my fla home in 2005 it is now 1/4 of what i sold it for. i went hiking yesterday, ran into a friend who is trying to sell 20acres that he bought in 92 , he told me prices now are near where he paid then. my point is bulls always end in a paraolic blowoff(secular bulls) not bull phases but bull markets. now i hear folks that i respect saying after this bull , gold will not collapse, not a bet that i am likely to make. the miners appreciation lies in front of them . listen i too am disgusted w/their performance. but the market is not for my approval. think long and hard on the present environment. draw in some history of past sovereign debt crises. look @ past bull markets. draw your conclusions and wait for the market participants to catch on to your thought. when this is over the public will be destitute. they will not be the participants in this bull , @least not that portion of the public. those w/ savings will look to preserve what they have. when i grew up the saying was"the dollar is as good as gold" that is because it was as good as gold. it was fully backed by gold. it takes along time for that big engine to shift . its a process. gradual. it is occurring dharma

Edited by dharma, 28 May 2012 - 12:00 PM.

[tria]

Latest Greek polls at last, show the inevitable. The ND (pro-Eurozone) party is now ahead of Syriza (anti- memorandum) party by 3% to 6% according to 4 different polling companies. Unless this status quo changes, no need for me to post again about the Greek 6/17 elections. Spain could become a bigger issue.... -tria

[dharma]

i hear all the talk of the miners bottoming. yes they are bottoming. it may or may not be true. if gold breaks to new lows then we have the last lows in the miners as a benchmark. if the miners dont break to new lows, then you have a buy set up . if they do , then you have to wait for the bottom to be in. right here , right now, there is no need to be in a hurry, its not going to be easy for the gold bugs over the summer. there will be an event is what my work is showing. dharma patience

[tradermama]

i hear all the talk of the miners bottoming. yes they are bottoming. it may or may not be true. if gold breaks to new lows then we have the last lows in the miners as a benchmark. if the miners dont break to new lows, then you have a buy set up . if they do , then you have to wait for the bottom to be in.
right here , right now, there is no need to be in a hurry, its not going to be easy for the gold bugs over the summer. there will be an event is what my work is showing.
dharma
patience

That's true. Also if 1600 can't be touched by gold, that could be a signal of further weakness to test the Dec's low or break them. 44 for gdx was the pnf buy..and typically if it is strong it should hold around there..43.50 is a reversal back to O's but that doesn't mean the ball game is over ..only unless 39 gets touched..but if there is a 3 box reversal..then there could be some further retracement imo..so watch 43.50
For the broads, I got a pnf buy on the dow, Nasdaq and the Rut fwiw.
TM

[stubaby]

right here , right now, there is no need to be in a hurry, its not going to be easy for the gold bugs over the summer. there will be an event is what my work is showing.
dharma
patience

dharma:

I have the same "event" on the near-term horizon (1-3 mos). Don't know what it will be, but am VERY UNCOMFORTABLE holding USD-based assets during this forward period! Am looking at the Swiss Franc (95-98 range) to "park" for upcoming opportunities. Have reduced my Jr positions to a "core few" and have concentrated on the majors. I do like to hedge my long positions occasionally VST (days or weeks) to preserve overall capital.

Interesting times!

Cheers.

stubaby

[johngeorge]

Broads are advancing, dollar is higher, PM's and miners are tanking. Yes, certainly appears from action so far today that it could be a long summer for the gold bulls. However, as you so aptly have pointed out numerous times; It goes with the territory. A big thank you for the sage advice you offer. You are a real veteran who has been there and done that.