143 replies to this topic

[dharma]

its all a painted picture.
oi rose again yesterday=specs are shorting gold. another reason i think we see a rally. oi is @or near its highest level. the bull is going to come w/his horns. sentiment seems ripe too
these 2 i found interesting
turk
http://kingworldnews.....r_&_Gold.html
coxe
http://www.kingworld...onald_Coxe.html

dharma

[tradermama]

where is the volume though?
looks painted to me. if not, 50 here we come

pnf has nothing to do with volume...it pushes out all the noise out there...and just another method for risk/reward based on buy/sell signals within this index..the stronger the pattern the more reliable..it's just a double top..which is 50/50 on achieving a rally with some legs..but still we haven't had that for a while..but on the negative side gdx's relative strength is still on an O (supply) for its RS..once that changes to an X and buy on the RS..then we have a new trend..this could just be a short term rally..but worth noting as it hasn't happened for a long time..I have seen buy signals not last long too when it's just 50/50..so we shall know in time..everyone has their own beliefs on volume..for me..I feel price leads over volume..it's good for conviction when it's high volume for up and down action..but stocks go higher on light volume too..just my opinion not interested in debating it..pnf is not a trading tool but excellent to manage your risk..so right now, it's just a good thing that needs to get better

TM

Edited by tradermama, 23 May 2012 - 02:08 PM.

[dharma]

tria- are you around Headline: Euro zone officials agree to prepare for Greek exit scenario May 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone officials have agreed that each euro zone country must prepare an individual contingency plan in the eventuality that Greece decides to leave the single currency area, two eurozone officials said on Wednesday. The agreement was reached during a teleconference of the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG), which started at 1300 GMT on Monday and lasted for about one hour. As well as confirmation from two officials, Reuters has seen a memo drawn up by one member state detailing some of the elements that euro zone countries should consider. The EWG consists of officials who prepare meetings of finance ministers and also form the board of the temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). "The EWG agreed that each euro zone country should prepare a contingency plan, individually, for the potential consequences of a Greek exit from the euro," said one euro zone official familiar with what was discussion on the call. dharma

[tradermama]

where is the volume though?
looks painted to me. if not, 50 here we come

pnf has nothing to do with volume...it pushes out all the noise out there...and just another method for risk/reward based on buy/sell signals within this index..the stronger the pattern the more reliable..it's just a double top..which is 50/50 on achieving a rally with some legs..but still we haven't had that for a while..but on the negative side gdx's relative strength is still on an O (supply) for its RS..once that changes to an X and buy on the RS..then we have a new trend..this could just be a short term rally..but worth noting as it hasn't happened for a long time..I have seen buy signals not last long too when it's just 50/50..so we shall know in time..everyone has their own beliefs on volume..for me..I feel price leads over volume..it's good for conviction when it's high volume for up and down action..but stocks go higher on light volume too..just my opinion not interested in debating it..pnf is not a trading tool but excellent to manage your risk..so right now, it's just a good thing that needs to get better

TM

A sell comes in if gdx touched 39 ..at this time it appears it's headed towards it's 50 ma at 46.19..which might be a pause..if it gets over there..yea then we could see it headed to 52 which is the 200 ema and falling...

If this is the real deal for a rally, watch how 44 holds it up or near there..it should keep gravitating towards it if it dips below it..that's where demand took over supply..but again, nothing is 100% ..and it's only a 50/50 chance..but it could get a Chan buy tonight..which would increase the odds imo

TM

[johngeorge]

TM always brings good stuff:

Chan GDX buy signal Visit My Website

PNF GDX buy signal Visit My Website For dougie and those so inclined: Look at the volume bars at the bottom of this chart.

[dougie]

thanks volume in gdx and gdxj ok for sure

[tria]

tria- are you around
Headline: Euro zone officials agree to prepare for Greek exit scenario

May 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone officials have agreed that each euro zone country must prepare an individual contingency plan in the eventuality that Greece decides to leave the single currency area, two eurozone officials said on Wednesday. The agreement was reached during a teleconference of the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG), which started at 1300 GMT on Monday and lasted for about one hour. As well as confirmation from two officials, Reuters has seen a memo drawn up by one member state detailing some of the elements that euro zone countries should consider. The EWG consists of officials who prepare meetings of finance ministers and also form the board of the temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). "The EWG agreed that each euro zone country should prepare a contingency plan, individually, for the potential consequences of a Greek exit from the euro," said one euro zone official familiar with what was discussion on the call.

dharma

Sorry dharma, just had a chance to read your post.

I believe they want to send a signal to the Greek Parties and the voters that the time has come to face reality, as the Euro zone is preparing for the worst but hope/wish for the best. First Greek vote was a complaining vote as well as a punishing vote for the 2 main ruling parties of the past. This time round, the vote will be basically an "in" or "out" vote. Eagerly waiting for the first reliable poll after the latest developments.

-tria

[tradermama]

TM always brings good stuff:

Chan GDX buy signal Visit My Website

PNF GDX buy signal Visit My Website For dougie and those so inclined: Look at the volume bars at the bottom of this chart.

53.50 is the price objective for gdx for the double top buy...and right now it's consider buy on the pullback...this should have legs..otherwise, de ja vue..we have a $hui and $xau chan buy too...

But the negative to me is gold..we need to get over 1600 ..if miners hold up and gold breaks down..that will be a clear signal the bottom is in..if HUI goes over 450 and stay closed above that..that should be a bottom in place too..we'll see but we are going into a weak season too...Hopefully this is not a failed buy signal which we had before from Chan too..but because we got that pnf buy..which we didn't have before when Chan had his buy signals..puts the odds in the favors of a rall to continue..

Good luck to all

TM

[dharma]

from the 2/29 highs xau, hui, gdx have taken out their downtrend lines, and popped out of the wedge pattern. hgnsi rose to -1.14% while MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 2 points to 53%, or back to just shy of the 51% that was hit on the low in Gold last week. gold now needs to take out its declinning trendline from the 2/29 highs by getting over the 1640 area. alot hinges on the greek vote on the 17th. the faucets(monetization has been turned off both here and in the ecb) surprisingly stocks have held up well(broads). i watch all the sound and fury and wait for the inevitable trend to reassert itself. when that is and from what price is the question? watching ones account everyday, only creates uneasiness and then mistakes. i take jesse's statement the most difficult thing is the sitting, but it will make the most money. dharma

[tradermama]

Note how 44 is holding gdx in check..(so far)..that's where the pnf buy signal came in..and where demand should be..it can go lower but as I said if it is the real deal..it should gravitate back to that 44..and at a minimum retest the highs today......even though the target is as hi as 53.50..it could stall at the 50ema (45.96)..or just stop there too. If it gets over 46 and stays over that..then that would be a significant accomplishment for the year because it hasn't stayed up there very long over that 50ema. TM