173 replies to this topic

[dharma]

i had about a 6month period , in heating oil, back in the 80s where i called every turn to almost the # . the market was in a perfect fib . it happens once in a while . then the analyst makes a name for himself/herself . and every one takes note. i have subsequently adopted a strategy that listens to the market. the market graveyards are filled w/folks whose turn date, turn price never came to pass. every analyst makes calls. and the few that are correct gain notoriety, the rest are forgotten . and so it goes. the temptation is great, give the reins over to this or that analysis. buy weakness , sell strength is all you need to know in bull markets. sure corrections are part of the process dharma

[tria]

i had about a 6month period , in heating oil, back in the 80s where i called every turn to almost the # . the market was in a perfect fib . it happens once in a while . then the analyst makes a name for himself/herself . and every one takes note. i have subsequently adopted a strategy that listens to the market. the market graveyards are filled w/folks whose turn date, turn price never came to pass. every analyst makes calls. and the few that are correct gain notoriety, the rest are forgotten . and so it goes. the temptation is great, give the reins over to this or that analysis. buy weakness , sell strength is all you need to know in bull markets.
sure corrections are part of the process
dharma

Very true dharma, but since buying weakness and selling strength from last May to now, means buying the mid 1500's and selling the 1610-1620 level, what else can one do but act accordingly with his trading position?
Turn dates are only used to become more aggressive or defensive, that is all there is to it.
I believe the correction is over, but we are forming a base within a wide trading range for the time being. Maximum for now is the 1,800 level, imho. If the base needs to be revisited after a rise first, so be it.

I feel sorry for the New Prime Minister, (classmate of mine). He looks like he has aged by 7 years since coming to power. He works like hell but the numbers do not add up. When people come back from their vacations, they will face more income cuts and higher utility bills still. For how long can this go on, I really do not know.


-tria

[dharma]

i had about a 6month period , in heating oil, back in the 80s where i called every turn to almost the # . the market was in a perfect fib . it happens once in a while . then the analyst makes a name for himself/herself . and every one takes note. i have subsequently adopted a strategy that listens to the market. the market graveyards are filled w/folks whose turn date, turn price never came to pass. every analyst makes calls. and the few that are correct gain notoriety, the rest are forgotten . and so it goes. the temptation is great, give the reins over to this or that analysis. buy weakness , sell strength is all you need to know in bull markets.
sure corrections are part of the process
dharma

Very true dharma, but since buying weakness and selling strength from last May to now, means buying the mid 1500's and selling the 1610-1620 level, what else can one do but act accordingly with his trading position?
Turn dates are only used to become more aggressive or defensive, that is all there is to it.
I believe the correction is over, but we are forming a base within a wide trading range for the time being. Maximum for now is the 1,800 level, imho. If the base needs to be revisited after a rise first, so be it.

I feel sorry for the New Prime Minister, (classmate of mine). He looks like he has aged by 7 years since coming to power. He works like hell but the numbers do not add up. When people come back from their vacations, they will face more income cuts and higher utility bills still. For how long can this go on, I really do not know.


-tria

i will not sell in this range bound trade. i will wait for the bull to reassert itself. often times, the possibilities i see , the market could care less about. there are so many sick puppies out there. not to mention saber rattling. i think the risk right here is being out. the lows have held since december, that is quite a base
we shall see
dharma

[tradermama]

i had about a 6month period , in heating oil, back in the 80s where i called every turn to almost the # . the market was in a perfect fib . it happens once in a while . then the analyst makes a name for himself/herself . and every one takes note. i have subsequently adopted a strategy that listens to the market. the market graveyards are filled w/folks whose turn date, turn price never came to pass. every analyst makes calls. and the few that are correct gain notoriety, the rest are forgotten . and so it goes. the temptation is great, give the reins over to this or that analysis. buy weakness , sell strength is all you need to know in bull markets.
sure corrections are part of the process
dharma

Very true dharma, but since buying weakness and selling strength from last May to now, means buying the mid 1500's and selling the 1610-1620 level, what else can one do but act accordingly with his trading position?
Turn dates are only used to become more aggressive or defensive, that is all there is to it.
I believe the correction is over, but we are forming a base within a wide trading range for the time being. Maximum for now is the 1,800 level, imho. If the base needs to be revisited after a rise first, so be it.

I feel sorry for the New Prime Minister, (classmate of mine). He looks like he has aged by 7 years since coming to power. He works like hell but the numbers do not add up. When people come back from their vacations, they will face more income cuts and higher utility bills still. For how long can this go on, I really do not know.


-tria

Tria, when did they say Greece is to run out of cash? I've read different times. Always appreciate the input. And I agree we are in a range till we aren't. Thanks
TM

[tradermama]

this is taken from Merriman's weekly column which I posted today in another thread.
TM


But back to the markets, which of course is all about numbers. In addition to the Mars-Saturn conjunction of August 15, next week will also find Venus making a T-square to the Uranus-Pluto square on August 15 and 16. This is also known as a “translation” of Venus (money, as in currencies and stocks) to Uranus (sudden news) and Pluto (debt and taxes). The value of things is apt to change sharply around those days. And with transiting Mars so prominent in aspect to planets in the NYSE chart, we can look to stocks as the leader of this possible change in trend. Additionally, both of these aspects (Venus to Uranus-Pluto and Mars to Saturn) have to do with weather and grain prices. Hot and dry may finally break now.

It’s all a prelude to the second passage of Uranus-Pluto in waxing square, which is coming up September 19. It’s more pressure of a different nature that will be building up, and one of the areas that is apt to reflect this buildup is precious metals, for Mars will soon be entering Scorpio, the sign of “reckoning” when it comes to debt and taxes, but also of special interest to metals. The debt crisis is far from over. In fact, it’s just about to have another incarnation with Mars entering Scorpio August 23-October 6, followed by Saturn doing the same for three years, beginning October 15. The stock market is still due for a 30% or greater decline unless the tax hikes coming up January 1 are repealed. This rally is probably just a sucker rally to draw the public into it before the final big bang comes up. Don’t be caught off guard.

[dharma]

if the broads crash, then all bets are off. i have heard all kinds of possibilities over the last 30+years. if the broads crash , the metals will follow and so will the miners. crashes are rare events. in this case taking the opposite side is not a wise bet i detect a very bearish psychology towards the market . hgnsi is 4% and market vane bullish consensus is 62% unchanged. williams, a fed moderate, came out strongly in favor of qe3 yesterday. the european union also saw italy and spain interest rates rise yesterday, w/the run on spanish banks, you wonder how much their cb can help their depleted bank reserves. then no one talks about japan which has the highest debt to gdp ratio @300 % . left to its own devices, the debt keeps growing in the west. it is unchecked. then in the middle east turkey lends a hand to the insurgents in syria. iran keeps getting more and more sanctions imposed on it. yesterdays, cot showed. the commercial shorts scalign back their position. of course nothing is carved in stone, but a look @ the gold chart shows the dec lows tested and retested and they held. the xau/gld ratio took out the 2008 lows. hui/gld, and gdx/gld rivaled the 2008 lows. so the sector is mired in bearish psychology as well as disbelief in the miners. generally speaking when this kind of persistent bearishness is prevalent a bottom is being formed or is in. gold is not exactly zooming off these lows. in fact it is yet to take out a previous significant high. the situation seems to be coming to a head. lets see what comes. dharma

Edited by dharma, 11 August 2012 - 10:54 AM.

[tria]

i had about a 6month period , in heating oil, back in the 80s where i called every turn to almost the # . the market was in a perfect fib . it happens once in a while . then the analyst makes a name for himself/herself . and every one takes note. i have subsequently adopted a strategy that listens to the market. the market graveyards are filled w/folks whose turn date, turn price never came to pass. every analyst makes calls. and the few that are correct gain notoriety, the rest are forgotten . and so it goes. the temptation is great, give the reins over to this or that analysis. buy weakness , sell strength is all you need to know in bull markets.
sure corrections are part of the process
dharma

Very true dharma, but since buying weakness and selling strength from last May to now, means buying the mid 1500's and selling the 1610-1620 level, what else can one do but act accordingly with his trading position?
Turn dates are only used to become more aggressive or defensive, that is all there is to it.
I believe the correction is over, but we are forming a base within a wide trading range for the time being. Maximum for now is the 1,800 level, imho. If the base needs to be revisited after a rise first, so be it.

I feel sorry for the New Prime Minister, (classmate of mine). He looks like he has aged by 7 years since coming to power. He works like hell but the numbers do not add up. When people come back from their vacations, they will face more income cuts and higher utility bills still. For how long can this go on, I really do not know.


-tria

Tria, when did they say Greece is to run out of cash? I've read different times. Always appreciate the input. And I agree we are in a range till we aren't. Thanks
TM

tradermama,

Greece running out of cash is not an issue for now. They have thought and have found a few ways to stay liquid, such as issuing short term T-Bills. Neither will the Eurozone allow Greece to run dry till the Troika's verdict on the Greek reforms and austerity progress-report due in late September. This will be the CRTITICAL time.

-tria

[tradermama]

if the broads crash, then all bets are off. i have heard all kinds of possibilities over the last 30+years. if the broads crash , the metals will follow and so will the miners. crashes are rare events. in this case taking the opposite side is not a wise bet
i detect a very bearish psychology towards the market . hgnsi is 4% and market vane bullish consensus is 62% unchanged. williams, a fed moderate, came out strongly in favor of qe3 yesterday. the european union also saw italy and spain interest rates rise yesterday, w/the run on spanish banks, you wonder how much their cb can help their depleted bank reserves. then no one talks about japan which has the highest debt to gdp ratio @300 % . left to its own devices, the debt keeps growing in the west. it is unchecked. then in the middle east turkey lends a hand to the insurgents in syria. iran keeps getting more and more sanctions imposed on it. yesterdays, cot showed. the commercial shorts scalign back their position.
of course nothing is carved in stone, but a look @ the gold chart shows the dec lows tested and retested and they held. the xau/gld ratio took out the 2008 lows. hui/gld, and gdx/gld rivaled the 2008 lows. so the sector is mired in bearish psychology as well as disbelief in the miners. generally speaking when this kind of persistent bearishness is prevalent a bottom is being formed or is in. gold is not exactly zooming off these lows. in fact it is yet to take out a previous significant high. the situation seems to be coming to a head.
lets see what comes.
dharma

I think what Merriman is referring to when he speaks about "crash" scenario is if the capital gains tax isn't extended ..there would be Katie bar the door due to the fact capital gains on those popular dividends would jump to 40%. However, I have read the democrats are proposing to raise it to 28% which might not be the same "crash" setting, that said, it is still possible for those dividend stocks to sell off to take advantage of a lower capital gain this year...and selling begets selling. I get the feeling no one is going to compromise on this...so this is a good set up for a crash setting if we hear nothing about this in the works...albeit rare. It's something to be aware of ...and can be observed just by watching some dividend mutual funds how they are going to preform over the next couple of months...seeing they are a basket of dividend plays. Pnf helps in this way ..if a sell comes in during this critical time.

Regarding PMs and miners..yes they all go down together..however, if an important low was in for both, then we watch to see how the lows are tested again ..if there shows relative strength while the broads go down, it could mean flight to safety again for gold which we use to have a while ago. Eventually this would happen again. I have noticed shorts are increasing on the PMs but not the miners. Time will tell ..but this is why I use pnf which cuts out a lot of the noise, ..demand/supply..simple. It won't tell you the bottoms or tops but it will help you with managing risk and no matter what we think, the market will do what it wants.

TM

[dharma]

there are many scenarios. many possibilities. i was bringing up my experience w/the broads. again there are many scenarios there. in weimar, the stock market went up for a period, until the money printing got outrageous. i am staying away from the broads, for me we are in a wide trading range. it seems apparent to me that after 30+ years of bull market , the bonds are near the end. that 15-16% will fall in this upcoming cycle. now tria mentions greece afloat, throw spain, italy, and all comers in there and you have qe to infinity. not to mention japan and the usa. the incumbent managed to spend more than all the previous presidents put together, so his plan is not a mystery. pauses are part of the process. no telling how the next leg gets kicked off.who knows we might have started. slowly slowly going hand in hand w/shattered confidence. all the sellers into weakness will be back, the parabolic will give them all confidence. markets are a study of psychology. lots of ways to play the game. good luck to all seems obvious to this player, that the sovereign debt is where to focus. its growing. growing. its not long for the populace to realized they can vote benefits for themselves. The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. Thomas Jefferson 49million folks on food stamps. dharma

[dharma]

i think the big issue , in addition to sovereign debt, will be food and water. i read over the weekend , the mississippi is 15' below normal. barges are by necessity having to be lighter and smaller dharma