282 replies to this topic

[tria]

Dharma, I am almost in agreement with your Gold timming scedule, although the price objectives are unknown to me and I prefer to be pleasantly surprised rather than be dissapointed. Trying to marry price and time is a very hazardous exercise. if you can do it my hat off to you. One thing is certain however, lower objectives have already been given and unless the technicals improve I keep a bearish bias for the time being. At the top Gold was not spinning its wheels, it was invisibly distributed from some to others. -tria

[stubaby]

i did some nibbling on the close

dharma:

One limit buy filled today - about 5 others "on deck"


stubaby

Edited by stubaby, 09 October 2012 - 09:44 PM.

[johngeorge]

FWIW my two cents on the dollar. It appears to be strengthening recently and could provide strong headwinds for gold and commodities. My long term chart shows support @ 80 and 77 with upside resistance of 83 and 86. I remain cautious here in watchful waiting mode.

Edited by johngeorge, 10 October 2012 - 09:03 AM.

[dharma]

for me the dominant factor on the charts for the miners. is the big W pattern. as most know Wis the sign of a good bottom. can there be pullbacks on Wpatterns? of course. but it is a sign that the market has bottomed and will head higher. my job is capitalize on the main trend, that is where the $$is made. sure will be periods where one fiat rises against another. they are both promises, more on that in a moment. Spain, has had big runs on its banks, it is essentially bankrupt. it is a big part of the euro, as of yet spain has not asked the euro for help. although draghi said yesterday they are standing by ready to help. as is the fed. (burnack has said he is ready to help the euro) . the spanish elections are on the 21st of oct. i have thought they will not ask for help until then. we shall see as to the value of a fiat. it appears the justices here are concerned. a landmark case!http://www.nysun.com...der-next/88019/ that is something to chew on, the justices want to maintain their standard of living. could open the door for the rest of us! so far the highs for this rally in gold occurred oct 1. i recognize that more time may be needed for the correction, so i nibble on issues that have corrected more and are oversold. i know that when it turns if i made a mistake , by buying too early, the bull will lift my boat. i am comfortable buying here- lightly. and i will continue to nibble into any weakness, which based on the patterns that have formed for gold/miners should be fairly short lived. dharma

Edited by dharma, 10 October 2012 - 09:55 AM.

[tradermama]

I show on stockcharts highs were Oct 5th at 1798.10. Or did Oct 1 end your cycle rally at 1794.40 and after that it's a new cycle for you? I just want to make sure I'm reading your correctly.

I have a 2 star reversal for metals tomorrow thru Monday..depending I guess what happens today..falling into it or going up into it..Also there are some new sells on gdx/hui/xau on Chan..slv had it a week ago...on pnf I dont have sells yet for gdx/silver/gold...I did get some alerts on some miners relative strength changing from X to O..those were fsm,NG and RIC..but nothing from the big miners yet..if I see the RS turning back to O on those then that's an intermediate sell..but that didnt happen..and I dont expect it...GDX is still close to it's RS to turn to a buy..it's on an X now..but a buy would give extra strength..again RS=relative strength not to be confused with pnf buy signals..even though it still is on a buy..the RS helped me know when miners started heading down in March..but even if that happened..I am in the camp we made an important bottom..looking long term for adding to core positions from much lower prices

rgld and nugt have a sell...

50 would be a pnf sell on gdx..but that might just mean a quick dip below it...

there is pressure on the overall market..which has put pressure on miners..nasdaq has a pnf sell but spx and dow dont...I think we still get an election rally which could help miners come back towards the end of the month..then after that correction..they've come this far to keep the market rising...I can't imagine it changing prior to the election..but you never know...it's a bullish period for a while for the market according to astro weather....

http://www.mmacycles...ctober-8,-2012/


if spx breaks under 1420...then we could have some heavier selling in miners imo...

now what I do with this?..I'm adding to core when time feels right....I agree with you Dharma as far as this is going to be confusing for longs and shorts who try to trade this...yesterday I saw silver holding up really well while gold/miners selling..today it's green ..that could be a positive divergence setting up?...we shall see
TM

[tria]

"The next 2-4 weeks could produce startling surprises in several markets… and also in the geopolitical (and geophysical) arena!" Eric Hadik -tria

[tradermama]

"The next 2-4 weeks could produce startling surprises in several markets… and also in the geopolitical (and geophysical) arena!"
Eric Hadik

-tria

nice general statement from Hadik...
which way is the question?...it might surprise up..election year?..
From what I"ve read we haven't seen such bearish sentiment this bad in a very long time..many are looking down..I'm not calling one way or the other..I let the market tell me..but I see so many negative posts on this market...now the fiscal cliff can happen and for all we know we are seeing the effects of it...Merriman feels strongly this is gonna happen..and we could see as much as a 30% correction..but the question is before or after elections?
Thanks for your update Tria!
TM

[dougie]

From what I"ve read we haven't seen such bearish sentiment this bad in a very long time..many are looking down

Not sure where you are getting your sentiment figures from: objective measures are very bullish for many markets

"The next 2-4 weeks could produce startling surprises in several markets… and also in the geopolitical (and geophysical) arena!"
Eric Hadik

-tria

nice general statement from Hadik...
which way is the question?...it might surprise up..election year?..
From what I"ve read we haven't seen such bearish sentiment this bad in a very long time..many are looking down..I'm not calling one way or the other..I let the market tell me..but I see so many negative posts on this market...now the fiscal cliff can happen and for all we know we are seeing the effects of it...Merriman feels strongly this is gonna happen..and we could see as much as a 30% correction..but the question is before or after elections?
Thanks for your update Tria!
TM

[tradermama]

From what I"ve read we haven't seen such bearish sentiment this bad in a very long time..many are looking down

Not sure where you are getting your sentiment figures from: objective measures are very bullish for many markets

"The next 2-4 weeks could produce startling surprises in several markets… and also in the geopolitical (and geophysical) arena!"
Eric Hadik

-tria

nice general statement from Hadik...
which way is the question?...it might surprise up..election year?..
From what I"ve read we haven't seen such bearish sentiment this bad in a very long time..many are looking down..I'm not calling one way or the other..I let the market tell me..but I see so many negative posts on this market...now the fiscal cliff can happen and for all we know we are seeing the effects of it...Merriman feels strongly this is gonna happen..and we could see as much as a 30% correction..but the question is before or after elections?
Thanks for your update Tria!
TM

Sorry, can't recall where I saw it ..I know what you mean about sentiment showing bullishness depending on what source you're reading..because I do see how it flips back and forth..but this article also referenced that it's been one of the most hated rallies. What I see are a lot of people still looking down. I guesss it's a matter of where you read it.

That said, I use pnf to tell me if and when the trend changes and of course with other indicators because pnf is a lagging indicator but it confirms trend changes and helps you manage risks. With all the selling lately the nyse bullish percent has hardly moved down. Today I'm watching how the spx is still holding up not touching 1430..which is a sell..so far it's come really close and that might change. Pnf is not a trading tool but it will cut the noise out. Even though Dorsey has always told us to observe media coverage to see if there are extremes in bears or bulls which can tell you if there is a top or bottom I haven't seen anything with a bull or bear on it. The nyse bullish percent hasn't even touched 70..the highest might have been about 67%..70 and over it overbought..that may mean a short term pullback but odds normally favors it crossing over that 70 and typically gets to extremes low 80s. There's always a first time but the odds favor up even if we do get some sell signals. It's the ratio or buys to sells that count with pnf.

Combining that with the election year cyles favor more up to end of the month..but yea, nothing is 100% and this time might be different.
TM

[dharma]

carlos slim buys another foreign owned gold mine in mexico auq +20% roasting the shorts dharma