282 replies to this topic

[tria]

Bollinger BandWidth = the squeeze is on.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p80143405212

Fasten your seat belts.

-tria

[dharma]

now we are in the window for a turn. will it result in a new impulse to new highs, or just a bounce? the election moves closer. where is the election rally?! the euro moves closer to coming apart ! when will spain ask for the bailout so many unanswered questions. approaching resistance.............again not a time for aggression dharma

[Russ]

Hi Dharma, I agree the big W on HUI is very important, I also notice that Mr. Armstrong is suggesting a March/April 2013 final low for gold is possible, this would fit with my call for a high in the early part of next year, the gold stocks may just do a test of support after that. Some weakness here looks likely but maybe another day up based on very short term oscillators.

"Currently, if this immediate correction-sideways pattern would end, there remains a possibility that it will do so in March/April 2013." MAA
http://www.martinarm...ction/index.htm

Russ

for me the dominant factor on the charts for the miners. is the big W pattern. as most know Wis the sign of a good bottom. can there be pullbacks on Wpatterns? of course. but it is a sign that the market has bottomed and will head higher. my job is capitalize on the main trend, that is where the $$is made. sure will be periods where one fiat rises against another. they are both promises, more on that in a moment.
Spain, has had big runs on its banks, it is essentially bankrupt. it is a big part of the euro, as of yet spain has not asked the euro for help. although draghi said yesterday they are standing by ready to help. as is the fed. (burnack has said he is ready to help the euro) . the spanish elections are on the 21st of oct. i have thought they will not ask for help until then. we shall see
as to the value of a fiat. it appears the justices here are concerned. a landmark case!http://www.nysun.com...der-next/88019/ that is something to chew on, the justices want to maintain their standard of living. could open the door for the rest of us!
so far the highs for this rally in gold occurred oct 1. i recognize that more time may be needed for the correction, so i nibble on issues that have corrected more and are oversold. i know that when it turns if i made a mistake , by buying too early, the bull will lift my boat. i am comfortable buying here- lightly. and i will continue to nibble into any weakness, which based on the patterns that have formed for gold/miners should be fairly short lived.
dharma

Edited by Russ, 11 October 2012 - 04:43 PM.

[tradermama]

Hi Dharma, I agree the big W on HUI is very important, I also notice that Mr. Armstrong is suggesting a March/April 2013 final low for gold is possible, this would fit with my call for a high in the early part of next year, the gold stocks may just do a test of support after that. Some weakness here looks likely but maybe another day up based on very short term oscillators.

"Currently, if this immediate correction-sideways pattern would end, there remains a possibility that it will do so in March/April 2013." MAA
http://www.martinarm...ction/index.htm

Russ

for me the dominant factor on the charts for the miners. is the big W pattern. as most know Wis the sign of a good bottom. can there be pullbacks on Wpatterns? of course. but it is a sign that the market has bottomed and will head higher. my job is capitalize on the main trend, that is where the $$is made. sure will be periods where one fiat rises against another. they are both promises, more on that in a moment.
Spain, has had big runs on its banks, it is essentially bankrupt. it is a big part of the euro, as of yet spain has not asked the euro for help. although draghi said yesterday they are standing by ready to help. as is the fed. (burnack has said he is ready to help the euro) . the spanish elections are on the 21st of oct. i have thought they will not ask for help until then. we shall see
as to the value of a fiat. it appears the justices here are concerned. a landmark case!http://www.nysun.com...der-next/88019/ that is something to chew on, the justices want to maintain their standard of living. could open the door for the rest of us!
so far the highs for this rally in gold occurred oct 1. i recognize that more time may be needed for the correction, so i nibble on issues that have corrected more and are oversold. i know that when it turns if i made a mistake , by buying too early, the bull will lift my boat. i am comfortable buying here- lightly. and i will continue to nibble into any weakness, which based on the patterns that have formed for gold/miners should be fairly short lived.
dharma

Hi Russ,
Would a "final low" mean a lower low or a low for a cycle? I can't imagine he be calling a lower low by then based on all the problems in the EU. I do know that Merriman has a possibility of a lower low that can still happen from now till March based on his cycle work. But if we cross over 1803...then that probability declines even greater. I'll be getting an update soon to see what he thinks on where we are now but I think the last time he had us around 60/40 that the bottom was in..but my updates are monthly. If Ken is here, he might be able to share more frequent thoughts.

That said, consolidation at these levels are bullish to me till it's not. 1740 touch would give a sell for gold and it would be the first sell since the rally so that would be the time to pay attention to how low we might go. If the Fiscal Cliff happens which Merriman is the camp it will, I can see a lot of selling in PMs/miners intensify only because margin calls that could happen...he says we could see up to a 30% decline in the broards if the FC happens. My guess if there is a FC it will be after the elections and we are setting up for some election rallly still into end of the month which would be for the broads. Spains elections Oct 21 so unless they take the bail out gold holds in a trading range 1750-1798 imo. Unless we get some new news of another country needing a bail out.

I'm watching pnf changes for the broads. I did get an indicator called the NYSE 10 wk indicator that went to a sell and to a bear correction. This is a short term indicator however it needs to be watch because it can lead to the longer term indicator NYSE Bullish percent change to O. It can flip back to X quickly too. But if the main indicator changes soon which it has hardly budged since this decline, then that will be the sign when the FC starts and to be on alert of more intense selling in PMs/miners to come...imo

Thanks
TM

[dharma]

there are no heroes in this game. no GODS . no one batting 1000 . armstrong is another one of those. i had been invited to participate on another board, there are few members but all of them accomplished and experienced. some are experts in armstrong s techniques. they missed the buy. keep your eyes and ears on the market. by the way there are some members of that board that are quite impressive, they continue to ride. i try to bring everyones attention to the patterns the market has made. Ws in the miners. and a large one year pennant in gold, resolved to the upside. this is the beat the market is marching to. take a look @natural gas.it has made a rectangle bottom pattern, we have blasted out the top. it has this big foundation to ride up from. take a look @corn , the crop report came out and surprise surprise it too blasted up. folks dont be deceived there is great money printing going on worldwide=usa , europe, japan, and now china. these fiats are seeking fair value!!!!! i love armstrong, i am going to read him and then follow my own work. the fear in the gold community is another 2008 or another 2011 in the miners. awhile back, i posted the blood is running in the miners street. they are still undervalued on a historical basis. go ahead bet this time is different. maybe this time it works. i am sure marty will be right one of these days. @some point there will be a wave 2 and the fear will run high, and all the price chasers will be underwater on their fairly new positions...........again. wait for major weakness to buy. that wave 2 that i just mentioned. all of the miner and gold charts look like they have formed continuation patterns. worked off the overbought condition and are getting ready to rumble. 1800 will be dusted . folks quote marty and merriman. how about sinclair. @300 gold he was calling for 1650 where was armstrong then? now jim is calling for 3500 and no one mentions him. jim was there last time. he is a master in this market. the rest are pretenders or wannabees. the fundamentals look great and sound. the chart patterns look great. corrections will occur. save some buying power to not only cash in on bargains, but also to save your psychology. governments sponsor fiats. gold is beyond their control. they hold gold for capital preservation just like the rest.of us. sure in 5min gold will look like dodo. it has no debt. it has a 5k year history as money. and whatever indicator is not going to change that. booking losses is not the road to riches. go over your fears and strategies. discard those that leave you w/losses. its not an easy game. play w/the size you are comfortable. dont let greed/fear dominate your style. better to play w/less than sit in the corner shivering for fear of the next correction. pssst , this ends in big fear. in a parabolic blowoff. if you didnt trade the nasdaq in 2k , go back and study the daily chart for the couple of years leading to the 2k top. go back to 75 and study the gold top in 80. then you wont care what whoever the hero on the white horse is saying. study. study your mistakes and wins. get going. dharma

[tradermama]

there are no heroes in this game. no GODS . no one batting 1000 . armstrong is another one of those. i had been invited to participate on another board, there are few members but all of them accomplished and experienced. some are experts in armstrong s techniques. they missed the buy. keep your eyes and ears on the market. by the way there are some members of that board that are quite impressive, they continue to ride.
i try to bring everyones attention to the patterns the market has made. Ws in the miners. and a large one year pennant in gold, resolved to the upside. this is the beat the market is marching to. take a look @natural gas.it has made a rectangle bottom pattern, we have blasted out the top. it has this big foundation to ride up from. take a look @corn , the crop report came out and surprise surprise it too blasted up. folks dont be deceived there is great money printing going on worldwide=usa , europe, japan, and now china. these fiats are seeking fair value!!!!!
i love armstrong, i am going to read him and then follow my own work. the fear in the gold community is another 2008 or another 2011 in the miners. awhile back, i posted the blood is running in the miners street. they are still undervalued on a historical basis. go ahead bet this time is different. maybe this time it works. i am sure marty will be right one of these days. @some point there will be a wave 2 and the fear will run high, and all the price chasers will be underwater on their fairly new positions...........again. wait for major weakness to buy. that wave 2 that i just mentioned. all of the miner and gold charts look like they have formed continuation patterns. worked off the overbought condition and are getting ready to rumble. 1800 will be dusted . folks quote marty and merriman. how about sinclair. @300 gold he was calling for 1650 where was armstrong then? now jim is calling for 3500 and no one mentions him. jim was there last time. he is a master in this market. the rest are pretenders or wannabees.
the fundamentals look great and sound. the chart patterns look great. corrections will occur. save some buying power to not only cash in on bargains, but also to save your psychology. governments sponsor fiats. gold is beyond their control. they hold gold for capital preservation just like the rest.of us. sure in 5min gold will look like dodo. it has no debt. it has a 5k year history as money. and whatever indicator is not going to change that. booking losses is not the road to riches. go over your fears and strategies. discard those that leave you w/losses. its not an easy game. play w/the size you are comfortable. dont let greed/fear dominate your style. better to play w/less than sit in the corner shivering for fear of the next correction.
pssst , this ends in big fear. in a parabolic blowoff. if you didnt trade the nasdaq in 2k , go back and study the daily chart for the couple of years leading to the 2k top. go back to 75 and study the gold top in 80. then you wont care what whoever the hero on the white horse is saying. study. study your mistakes and wins. get going.
dharma

I quote Merriman as sharing info on his short term/long term cycles and he has a great record too. He has been wrong of course. Armstrong was off for sure in Sept. Sinclair will be right long term but does he give a projection of when he expects 4500? Just wondering if you know that because I haven't found it and I know you do follow him. People will be right and people will be wrong with their short term targets and time period. The important thing imo to know is we are in the beginning stages of a new 4.25 cycle or we will be close to one if for some reason the low did break between now and March. And once you are in the beginning stages it's not a time to sell but to establish a core and add to that core.
Anything I share about Merriman or pnf is for entertainment and you take it fwiw. For me, it's all about managing risk first, profits 2nd.
TM

[dharma]

traderama- i follow sinclair like i do every one else. i read them and do my own work. think for myself. and the #jim gives is 3500 and i have seen him give #s over 10k. i respect marty just as i do other analysts. is his money on the line? or is it intellectual? there is a difference for me! the bottom line for me is .if you have stalked this market and plan to be on board for the ride, and you miss the parabolic . then you blew it. when i started , i traded w/ a bunch of guys. some followed various analysts , who used the high too fast , needs to correct mantra. the ones who missed the move, were depressed. its a golden opportunity. i too follow ray, he speaks my language. i havent followed him long enough to know his prowess on the hourly gold /miners charts have formed pennants. w/o knowledge +experience it becomes very tough. you can increase both of those by studying past bull markets. w/o that , you increase your odds to fall prey dharma

Edited by dharma, 12 October 2012 - 02:04 PM.

[tradermama]

traderama- i follow sinclair like i do every one else. i read them and do my own work. think for myself. and the #jim gives is 3500 and i have seen him give #s over 10k.
i respect marty just as i do other analysts. is his money on the line? or is it intellectual? there is a difference for me!
the bottom line for me is .if you have stalked this market and plan to be on board for the ride, and you miss the parabolic . then you blew it. when i started , i traded w/ a bunch of guys. some followed various analysts , who used the high too fast , needs to correct mantra. the ones who missed the move, were depressed. its a golden opportunity.
i too follow ray, he speaks my language. i havent followed him long enough to know his prowess
on the hourly gold /miners charts have formed pennants.
w/o knowledge +experience it becomes very tough. you can increase both of those by studying past bull markets.
w/o that , you increase your odds to fall prey
dharma

Yes Dharma, I know what you're saying but my question was do you know if Jim gave any timeline for his 3500 projection? Just wondering, that's all. I wasn't sure if i'm reading that correctly as if he thinks it's in a short time within 6 months to a year ..2 yrs, etc or a top. It wasn't clear to me ..that's all. I can't find it on his website so I was just wondering if you knew that answer.
TM

[dharma]

traderama- i follow sinclair like i do every one else. i read them and do my own work. think for myself. and the #jim gives is 3500 and i have seen him give #s over 10k.
i respect marty just as i do other analysts. is his money on the line? or is it intellectual? there is a difference for me!
the bottom line for me is .if you have stalked this market and plan to be on board for the ride, and you miss the parabolic . then you blew it. when i started , i traded w/ a bunch of guys. some followed various analysts , who used the high too fast , needs to correct mantra. the ones who missed the move, were depressed. its a golden opportunity.
i too follow ray, he speaks my language. i havent followed him long enough to know his prowess
on the hourly gold /miners charts have formed pennants.
w/o knowledge +experience it becomes very tough. you can increase both of those by studying past bull markets.
w/o that , you increase your odds to fall prey
dharma

Yes Dharma, I know what you're saying but my question was do you know if Jim gave any timeline for his 3500 projection? Just wondering, that's all. I wasn't sure if i'm reading that correctly as if he thinks it's in a short time within 6 months to a year ..2 yrs, etc or a top. It wasn't clear to me ..that's all. I can't find it on his website so I was just wondering if you knew that answer.
TM

i dont know!
chart patterns on hourly and daily look very constructive, if we get through this 1754 for gold then watching 1735.
dharma

[stubaby]

Falling US Dollar may put of floor on Gold & Silver correction

US Dollar "retested" the underside of it's broken bearish wedge last week:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p41693967157&a=259871880&r=828.png

On Daily Chart: 1)RSI 50 proves resistance 2)50-Day negative cross of 100-Day MA and near crossing below 200-Day MA:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=4&mn=4&dy=0&i=p74298983266&a=259871882&r=711.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p74892216865&a=259871885&r=9980.png

Pnf Chart goes to "high pole warning" as selling takes the lead:
USD Pnf

stubaby