282 replies to this topic

[dharma]

Stochastics diverging on the hourly, bear channel could break down eventually and also considering that gld is up to the top of the major wedge, bigger picture chart as you have noted is right on the knife edge...

hourly divergences starting to bite! i dont look for any major corrections just yet
dharma

a pull back in here would be quite normal, taking out the triangle/pennant right now has low odds. we will build some cause. then blow through the pennant
russ. i read your top in january . the 21-22month cycle has been the most reliable in this bull market. it is not scheduled to top until june/july and i expect new highs by a wide margin in that time frame
dharma

[Russ]

Dharma... The little wedge breakout measures to about 1700 but the big one may stop it for now. You may very well be right about the high showing up next june but that is not what my oscillator is showing for hui and nugt which should mean gold too, but if gold keeps rallying beyond jan 2013 I won't complain. ha.

Edited by Russ, 23 August 2012 - 02:53 PM.

[dharma]

russ, check out that cycle. it is clockwork! lots of crosscurrents going on today. just in time for gold to hit the top of the triangle. my work shows the market projecting higher, however there is obvious resistance here. what favs you didnt get to buy , you will get more opportunities. china and india will come into question, and the shorts will try a scare and rout. , none the less, gold cannot be printed or fabricated. markets are an ebb and flow. its been a good week so far, and i see more to come , once this correction works its way through dharma

[Russ]

Dharma:

Gann Global who called the commodity correction of the past year or so, has a new series of forecasts out and one of them has the median gold rally finishing around October which ties in with Merriman's Astro work that TM posted. Below is a link to the videos that will come down this weekend and the gold one in particular and a screen capture of the gold forecast projection... http://www.ganngloba...-20-Video-2.php

You could be right about Gold going up into next June, I never ignore any possibility but as I said I don't see it on my charts.

[dharma]

thanks russ, i am familiar w/james flanigan. he is using the 60year cycle , which is quite an interesting cycle. notice how the overbought condition is being worked off on the hourly charts w/o much of a pullback, the condition is being worked off by backing and filling. my mo fwiw, is to find a trend and ride until the trend finds full expression. that means that drawdowns are part of that process. its why i mention extraneous stuff like aapl. it is instructive. it is in a parabolic blowoff. @some point their innovation will put them somewhere back in the pack and w/the price looking for nothing but blue skies ,the price will correct. how that all plays out will give us a preview into the gold parabolic. what i know is, few if any were calling the bottom for this move, it was screaming @me . and everyone including marty had lows in august. then maybe oct/nov . the thing w/reading maps/programs is you have to lift your head to see the countryside , so you get a feel for what the psychology of the market is yesterday dennis the menace gartman was on cnbc. he stated proudly and boldly -no qe. well the menace is a fade.next they had bill gross on , he gave qe 80% chance of qe in sept. i had posted several times on this board the seasonal map of election years. they are going to have everything w/a symbol alot higher, its not a mystery. its what incumbents do. bush1 opened his mouth and said we need to raise taxes , after using the no new taxes mantra for years.-he didnt get reelected. its not a mystery. the economy is in the doldrums. as for gold , i look @ monthly charts and the last year looks like another pause in the continuing trend. you just watch how many really smart guys , famous gurus miss the train. their own ideas and concepts get in their way. i dont want to talk about laundry , he is not here. dharma

Edited by dharma, 24 August 2012 - 10:13 AM.

[Russ]

Dharma: When gold first shot up in early June Marty Armstrong said buy gold now, then he seemed to change his mind and started talking about a low at the end of the year. It has always been hard to trade his day to day stuff I found, his longer term calls tend to be right. Like gold going to 5-10k by 2017 and oil being several hundred a barrel by then should be correct. Things will get Fugly by then. As for Laundry, as Rodgerdodger posted he called for a June low in gold, he was one month late but still good call. R

[dharma]

Dharma:

When gold first shot up in early June Marty Armstrong said buy gold now, then he seemed to change his mind and started talking about a low at the end of the year. It has always been hard to trade his day to day stuff I found, his longer term calls tend to be right. Like gold going to 5-10k by 2017 and oil being several hundred a barrel by then should be correct. Things will get Fugly by then.

As for Laundry, as Rodgerdodger posted he called for a June low in gold, he was one month late but still good call.

R

this is precisely why i dont try to trade and stick w/the trend, it increases my odds of success greatly
dharma

[stubaby]

dharma:

Could get difficult here for a bit - Weekly Cot Reports:

Silver COT
Gold Cot


Although with this data as of Tuesday, August 21st:

since Mondays' close
Gold +3.1%
Silver +6.6%

Will be more instructive to look at the change for next Tuesday's numbers, IMHO, i.e., did they "run for cover" and close or "add" on the breakouts! Good news is it will probably turn some bearish and keep some "on the sidelines"!

stubaby

Edited by stubaby, 24 August 2012 - 04:04 PM.

[tria]

Hi all,

I am looking for an up-week in Gold and Silver, especially in the second half of the week.

BTW
I would like to put things straight concerning Terry Laundry's late June low in Gold, as I have seen some inaccurate statements in this Board.
In May, I presented to the T-Theory forum the case that the cyclical picture and other observations were suggesting of THE low in May. Terry Laundry disregarded my claim and posted his own (or Parker's) 25-week cyclic picture with an unimportant late June low. Further more he theorized that the final destination for Gold after a small rebound in July, would be below $1,400 in a 2008 type of crash by the end of this year in everything, except Bonds and the USD. Needless to say, I did not buy this pessimistic Gold outcome.

Long term, T-Theory has a bullish Mega price-T expiring in 2020.
http://ttheoryforum..../01/30ygold.gif

Medium term, there is a mcd-T expiring in June 2013.
Eric Hadik, has an important low in November and a high in June 2013 as well.

Short term, a high should be seen by the end of this month/early Sept or by late Sept at the latest.

-tria

[JGUITARSLIM]

dharma:

Could get difficult here for a bit - Weekly Cot Reports:

Silver COT
Gold Cot


Although with this data as of Tuesday, August 21st:

since Mondays' close
Gold +3.1%
Silver +6.6%

Will be more instructive to look at the change for next Tuesday's numbers, IMHO, i.e., did they "run for cover" and close or "add" on the breakouts! Good news is it will probably turn some bearish and keep some "on the sidelines"!

stubaby

http://kingworldnews...er_Markets.html