382 replies to this topic

[bunker]

I am waiting for MACD to give a better buy point. The following chart shows where I would consider buying for a hold regarding MACD. Price will follow at that point

https://dl.dropbox.c...97/gld macd.png

I subscribe to a service that is neutral on gold. Looking at information based on CEF and GTU premiums, we still have a way to go before we have reached a bottom. There are no volume or price spikes that would lead to a V-shaped bottom, so I don't feel it is time to rush into gold
https://dl.dropbox.c...9588897/CEF.jpg

[beta]

Great charts, BT. Welcome to the forum

[tria]

I believe there is at least another leg down, for Gold and Silver.
I think Gold will test the $1,635 level and most probably by this week's end.

There is a 5th wave down missing since the 11/23 high on this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p11446791211

There is a 5th wave down missing since the 12/12 high on this chart:
http://stockcharts.c...id=p08258644408

I expect a low by 3-6 January and then a rise to 18-21 January.
Then and only then I will consider whether this rebound is something larger than just a rebound.

May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year.

-tria

[dharma]

tria, i too have a high for january 20th, then a may high. then the 21-22 month cycle high breaking the lows in the low 1500s is still a smallish possibility. one that i am not discounting. remember folks, these guys do play hard ball dharma

[tria]

Just for the record, I sold for a near +8% profit my NUGT bought on 12/21. -tria

[tradermama]

tria, i too have a high for january 20th, then a may high. then the 21-22 month cycle high
breaking the lows in the low 1500s is still a smallish possibility. one that i am not discounting.
remember folks, these guys do play hard ball
dharma

this will be interesting..Merriman has it that seeing we broke 1672.. a primary cycle and longer term cycle low could be between Jan 28-Feb 15th. We could easily rally beginning of Jan to your Jan 20th high but my work shows we won't break 1800 yet for Jan..I could be wrong but that's my take.

Happy New Year to All.

TM

[stubaby]

Picked up some CEF today on a "limit buy order" right at the 61.8% FIB level (last add was on the mid 2010 breakout):

http://stockcharts.c...51221&r=476.png

http://stockcharts.c...54865&r=694.png

Do your own DD please!



stubaby

[stubaby]

Leverage to Miners capital expenditures with JOY Global (JOY):

http://stockcharts.c...9616&r=6778.png

Do your own DD!

stubaby

[diogenes227]

stubaby, Just wanted to extend a personal "thank you" for your many fine posts and excellent charting all this year. Your contributions here are very much appreciated, at least by me. A happy new year to you and yours. Good luck and good trading.

[tradermama]

GDX, HUI, XAU just got a buy signal from yesterday's action on Chan's chart. Regarding pnf which this one would be significant for GDX...if it hits 49.93 it would be a buy signal for the RS (relative strength)...This is recalculated daily based on the Ishares Dow Jones U.S Total Market Index movement too. If GDX can gather some good momentum here to just touch that we would have imo the formula we need to have miners lead again and it would last most likely months to year(s). I got an alert from yesterday's action on this called "1 box away from a RS buy". So in order to know where the buy is, you have to do a calculation on the Dow Jones U.S Total Market Index. And 49.93 is what I came up with. So far it looks like miners might have bottom short term, however confirmation for "the bottom" comes in if it can get the RS Buy imo. Now GDX needs to touch 48 for a pnf buy signal...Nugt needs 12. Regarding gold, again, I can see us geting up to the upper 1700's again...but first we have to get over 1681 and 1720. 1720 is a buy signal on gold. I would be surprise if we get over 1810 in January only because it was just last week I got a pnf negative trend on gold and I haven't seen that all year..and don't recall if it started with a negative pnf trend last January. But it can happen ..it's just an observation. That said the reason I dont think it will get over 1810 in Jan is money flow might go into equities (risk on) over commodities in the beginning. Also, a signifcant primary and long term low comes in Jan 28-Feb 15 according to Merriman. No matter, I let TA guide me. So watch GDX and if it can lead, if so then we're back to the way it was in August where miners lead metals and this is what we want to continue the bull run. I'll report if and when GDX gets a pnf buy and RS buy. GLTA TM P.S the NYSE BP which I reported turned to X had hardly budge on the decline of equities and it's still buy the dip. You can even have a 5-6% correction most likely and this might not turn back to O. But typically it doesn't get whipsawed and last for an average of about 6 months too. So again, this is why I think money will continue to flow into equities small correction notwithstanding in the first half of the year. I'll report if that changes too.

Edited by tradermama, 01 January 2013 - 08:43 AM.