382 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

agree there are houly divergences in gold, but none yet in the mining indexes, in no hurry here.
today the fed makes a statement, and of course, although they have stated their intentions, the wording will be key
thursday is options expiration
HGNSI fell 11.8 points to 15.5% monday.
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 2 points to 65% on tueday.
so you can see the sentiment is quite skeptical. =bullish. as has been the case, the sector is not one of the favorites, to say the least.
we are in a support zone w/fib support just below the market.
there are 2 concerns that i have:
1- a change in the tax law. the repeal of the bush tax cuts, could cause a sell off in stocks. taking away tax benefits for investors is not a good idea
2-a sudden lehman type of event. some entity(a municipality, govt etc) declares bankruptcy
either of these events will cause deflation. i do think the end result will be more printing, but in the meantime, it could cause the price of gold to get hit
dharma

dharma:

Looking to Agriculture for clues - should lead the upturns in other commodities:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p09862667135&a=259871874&r=203.png

stubaby

[dharma]

agree there are houly divergences in gold, but none yet in the mining indexes, in no hurry here.
today the fed makes a statement, and of course, although they have stated their intentions, the wording will be key
thursday is options expiration
HGNSI fell 11.8 points to 15.5% monday.
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 2 points to 65% on tueday.
so you can see the sentiment is quite skeptical. =bullish. as has been the case, the sector is not one of the favorites, to say the least.
we are in a support zone w/fib support just below the market.
there are 2 concerns that i have:
1- a change in the tax law. the repeal of the bush tax cuts, could cause a sell off in stocks. taking away tax benefits for investors is not a good idea
2-a sudden lehman type of event. some entity(a municipality, govt etc) declares bankruptcy
either of these events will cause deflation. i do think the end result will be more printing, but in the meantime, it could cause the price of gold to get hit
dharma

dharma:

Looking to Agriculture for clues - should lead the upturns in other commodities:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p09862667135&a=259871874&r=203.png

stubaby

agree to an extent. w/the worst drought in 50 years, i would expect the food stuffs to do well. however, it seems all stops have been pulled out for the election. the president has mentioned releasing the strategic petroleum reserves, oil has sought lower levels. its not by accident.
soaring grain prices caused the arab spring. not hard to imagine what would happen here. keep in mind that the new crop is being harvested. what is being sold is last years crop. it will take some time for the new crop to be brought to market. what you see is the old crop creeping up in price.
dharma

[stubaby]

dharma et all:

Am seeing "subtle" signs that Wave a of corrective in the miners is completing today or within days (looking for silver and the miners to lead higher here). Wave b may or may not reach new highs for the move, but based on the positive position of the MAs I think it will and therefore the Wave c that follows will not make a lower low than Wave a - we shall see.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&i=p94078093609&a=259871924&r=7096.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19975498364&a=259871925&r=9861.png

For Gold looks like Wave 4 of 1 completing now with Wave 5 of 1 to follow towards 1,875 to 1,900 by early December. Also, got the 'dip' below "the round number".

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&i=p31059369907&a=259871921&r=405.png

stubaby

[senorBS]

agree there are houly divergences in gold, but none yet in the mining indexes, in no hurry here.
today the fed makes a statement, and of course, although they have stated their intentions, the wording will be key
thursday is options expiration
HGNSI fell 11.8 points to 15.5% monday.
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 2 points to 65% on tueday.
so you can see the sentiment is quite skeptical. =bullish. as has been the case, the sector is not one of the favorites, to say the least.
we are in a support zone w/fib support just below the market.
there are 2 concerns that i have:
1- a change in the tax law. the repeal of the bush tax cuts, could cause a sell off in stocks. taking away tax benefits for investors is not a good idea
2-a sudden lehman type of event. some entity(a municipality, govt etc) declares bankruptcy
either of these events will cause deflation. i do think the end result will be more printing, but in the meantime, it could cause the price of gold to get hit
dharma

dharma:

Looking to Agriculture for clues - should lead the upturns in other commodities:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p09862667135&a=259871874&r=203.png

stubaby

I'll add one point, I think we are entering a tipping point where most other commodities will begin to outperform gold for years - so my FF is that the "golden age" may be ending. Just an opiniomn and FWIW

Senor

[dharma]

senor, keep in mind that while commodities rise, they reinforce gold as money. if the last bull is any indication, then almost all commodities will rise and gold will remain right there w/the best of em. this is a crises of greater magnitude. fiats will lose pp the end of the year long consolidation in gold marked the start of phase 3 of the bull for me. the mining indexes made a big W pattern indicating a bottom. as a confirmation of a bottom. so that is the premise that i am operating under. on the monthly gold chart , the pattern made by the year long consolidation is quite bullish. so we rallied 250+ off the lows, hit resistance and here we are. the short cycle i follow topped oct 1st. since then the correction is quite normal/sub par. it is early to start a new upphase, however the election skews things. so we shall see. 1716 is one of the #s i gave as support on the way down, now it is resistance. i do think there will be an assault on the 1800 resistance, but maybe not yet. commodities going up is a sign that the currency is being devalued. which is what qe is about. notice this am gg and aem have some juice. it starts w/the seniors. then it spreads to the juniors. dharma

[dharma]

one factor that i want to mention, is the fact that one of the largest mining regions in the world is on strike. yes, folks the miners in s.africa are on strike this takes a huge portion of the world production supply out of the market. dont know if we bottomed yet or not. but that lack of supply will be felt in the market sooner rather than later dharma

[dharma]

keep in mind the indian market is closed for a few days. then the indian buying season. last night they tried 1700 again. now 1716 again today. dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma I do think with the South African mines on strike that would provide at least a temporary floor for the price of gold. They are an important producer of gold in the scheme of things. IMO the dollar is showing signs of strengthening here which is a headwind along with the Indian buying season being in the future. Then, of course, there is the continued printing of fiat currency around the world not to mention the geopolitical climate in the Middle East. Lots of stuff so I remain in watchful waiting to pick up a couple new positions. Added to my TGLDX last Friday. Best to you.

[dharma]

we are on the precipice of the indian buying season. the s/african miners remain on stirke-keeping supply from the market. and we have the seasonal charts saying around nov1 the seasonal pressure is off. if you ask me, and i know you didnt, this could be the set up for an explosive situation. if i know this, so do the shorts. they will press and cover quickly over the next week or so question: when do they go long!? dharma

[tria]

My best wishes for a non-problematic next few days to any member living in the North East USA. FWIW, I am expecting a fairly strong week for Gold, could rise $30-$40 or so by week's end. The first part of the correction should be over, my EW counting suggests. Good for trading purposes only, I believe. Fully long in trading account now. One has to admire how well GDX, SIL and SLW are behaving as well. Laz