382 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

now there are daily divergences in gld.
the mining indexes are still holding their patterns.
the election in 04 came under mercury retrograde. the election was disputed, it took time, throwing the markets in a tizzy
tuesday mercury goes retrograde, its election day. could create similar circumstances to 04
even though i see signs of bottoming action. i am very long anyways, i will wait and see what shakes out here
dharma
i do not like or trust management @abx . however the stock has caught my eye as it falls into the abyss. maybe just maybe i add this one???!!!

dharma:

Out with the old (ABX & NEM) and in with the new (GG & AEM). Interesting the different individual patterns short-term here - tells me alot!

OLD

http://stockcharts.c...0960&r=8013.png

http://stockcharts.c...30999&r=807.png

NEW

http://stockcharts.c...6034&r=7308.png

http://stockcharts.c...6048&r=3988.png

I'm looking to add to the NEW here!


stubaby

[tria]

The only positive things today are that we are at the 4th wave of lesser degree in Gold and Silver and that GDx refuses to fall below the $50 mark which was the recent low in October. -tria

[dharma]

might this be the cause of the sell off
http://articles.mark...is-lockhart-qe3

november seasonally tends to be one of the best months of the year
http://in.reuters.co...E8M24IT20121102
Asia Gold-India rushes to buy as prices drop to one-month low
if you are a long term player of this market, it is an opportunity. switching to my buy hat
dharma

[johngeorge]

"switching to my buy hat" You too, eh.

[dharma]

i had stated awhile back that my preferred scenario is that we finished 3 waves up from the may lows. we , i believe, are in wave 4 here. now, we are in the indian buying season. i lived in india for 3 years. they have been through many financial upheavals, buying gold is a matter of course for them. we have an election tomorrow. mercury goes retrograde tomorrow. perfect timing. in 2k the election was disputed and held under mercury retrograde. it took awhile to sort out. might this election hold the same promise. i am cautious in here. i do think some producers were clobbered on this correction:ngd, abx, nem come to mind. and that is where my attention is. however w/only 3 waves up on the chart i am cautious. when this 5 is completed , i am thinking in january. then a larger correction will take place. might be safer and better to wait. the 21-22 month cycle highs are due in june/july. that has worked like clock work, few have attention spans that last more than overnight, let alone 22 months. frankly, i dont think either candidate can do away w/qe, if that were to happen, down the rabbit hole we go. do not pass go, do not collect 200. in spite of all the hype , whatever footing the economy has , it has because of liquidity. lots of liquidity. the ecb meets this week. we will see what they decide to do about spain. tough decisions ahead over there. and some of their members are going down no matter what they give them. gold is not a religion for me. there are periods, such as now, where it is prudent to own it. it will also be prudent to jump ship @some point. as is the case w/all bull markets. human psychology will have this end in a parabolic blow off. so all those calling for the bulls demise, have not done any homework. dharma

[beta]

Yes you are right dharma - all bulls end with a magnificent parabolic blowoff phase - anyone trading tech in the 2000 era saw this, we have yet to see the mania ....

[johngeorge]

Bought small starter position in NUGT @ 13.77. Stop @ 11.23. Please show honor and respect to those men and women who have given life and limb so we may exercise our freedoms. Get out and vote!

[johngeorge]

dharma, if I recall correctly, has indicated 1804 as the number for gold as resistance. I believe he is in good company. From my FWIW department I have long term resistance @ 1844 and support @ 1660. Will know in the fulness of time.

[tria]

Having posted this on ealy Monday at the T-Theory forum, and since I got more than my $1.00 in Silver and my $1705 target ih Gold, I am going back to neutral in my trading account. el-tria Says: November 5, 2012 at 6:21 am Good morning, I have turned neutral on the mkt and covered my SPZ12 shorts earlier today. Looking to sell again near the 1,740 area. In Gold and Silver we are near the 200-day sma and near the 50% retracement levels. I am looking for a tradable rally to say 1700-1705 this week and for something like a $1.00 rise in Silver. Mind you there could be an inverted (bearish) mfi-T expiring near mid November in both Gold and Silver. -tria

[dharma]

dharma, if I recall correctly, has indicated 1804 as the number for gold as resistance. I believe he is in good company. From my FWIW department I have long term resistance @ 1844 and support @ 1660. Will know in the fulness of time.

elections are the entertainment side of the industrial military complex-frank zappa

jg- you beat me to it, i was going to post that piece. it gives interesting perspective. the market has approached 1800 on 3 different occasions and each time it got sent back on its butt. the 4th time will be a charm
i had the short cycle highs on the 1st of oct. the actual highs came on the 4th . so , basing it on the projected highs, today is day 34, maybe time for a trend change. today mercury goes retrograde, sure hoping whoever the victor is , he can be announced sooner rather than later. will be better for the country.
random thoughts
1659 the pivot the death zone for the decline. 1640is the start of this price cycle
physical demand, not paper gold, will now come from india, as the indian gold buying season is upon us
gartman and the deflationists are getting loud, they are both good fades. last i looked keynesians are in control of cbs world wide. got a problem, throw money @it. there , that should solve your problem
the debts world wide just keep growing, day by day.
i am thinking that 08 was 75-76 in gold , where the price went from 204-102 , not quite as devastating as 76 , but the miners were pummeled. slw sold @2.5 all were scared to buy.! i believe that the year long consolidation coming to a thrust over the supply line(pennant)marked the beginning of the 3rd phase. we will earn every nickel . as folks point to pull backs in certain commodities as reasons to avoid investment. from the get go i had a plan, i saw last time in the 400s how most of the top advisers let the train leave the station as they shout too high too fast. needs to correct. and the market went due north. the reasons will be there to avoid the train. but it will head due north. have a plan. a core that you can hold no matter how it all seems to fall apart. i expect one more pullback in the spring that has the potential to go lower than this one, and it comes from higher #s. fwiw i believe we started phase 3 of the bull. elliott wave 5 , the big kahuna
tria you seem to have a good handle
beta- it is human nature. no one wants whatever it is @the bottom, @the top , they all want it. even stodgy realestate had a parabolic w/prices going up 30-40% per year.
i wish i could tell you how long and how high this will go. today is a day of manure, so it may seem appropriate. but i cant and wont. i wait here. hoping that i can just sit in my seat. and not shoot myself in the foot. the broads have not been rising because of superb biz conditions. they are rising on the mass injections of liquidity. its a world wide phenomenon. i am a broken record . patience. either candidate has no choice but to qe.
dharma

Edited by dharma, 06 November 2012 - 12:38 PM.