34 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

I just thought I'd share some new alerts on pnf for gdx. GDX just got its RS (relative strength) change to O from being on X from Sept. Last time this happened was March. This is telling me that most likely the low isn't in and we have some more time on our hands before any big lasting rally. The nyse bp now is at 71.25 (Dorsey's) ..over 70 is overbought but typically it can get to the 80-83 area. However, last year we went up to 76 then we reversed down.... a 6 pt reversal would do that. This might happen at higher levels too but it's a warning sign to watch. The NYSE 10 week is at extremes with 93.60..and the NYSE hi/low very extreme at 98 with the otc at 93...anything over 70 is overbought....those are short term indicators that could point to a intermediate top too..not there yet but just a warning sign. Also the mutual funds are at extreme overbought which are indications of a top..whether short term to intermediate we won't know yet. Saturday is full moon..effects tomorrow/Monday..Bradley Tues..going up into this should be at least the short term top. The pullback will be bought at least the first time..Feb imo will be choppy. FWIW on Merriman he has a target of 13,624-13,932 or all time highs. He's been shorting gold and his favorable target is 1545-1589 if 1626 breaks but if 1523 breaks..then look for 1355-1400. But he's more in the camp that the Dec lows are in which is the 4.25 cycle low..if not then we look for that cycle low preferably Feb/March. TM P.S I did get some similar RS changes for other miners too but one I just got that had a trend change to negative which to me could be pointing to some ugliness in gold is FNV which is a royalty company for gold..if you recall I posted a trend change for gold end of Dec..gdx trend change early Dec..so it makes me wonder if fnv got a trend change..this isn't over for a while longer..the correction that is

Edited by tradermama, 24 January 2013 - 07:00 AM.

[Sentient Being]

Thanks. I do have an active trade going in Gold and am considering getting out. If my main account gets stopped out I'll probably go down to the smaller trading account and get it too. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Gold at least test the bottom of this "intermediate" term trading range which is a bit lower to go yet. And then the question is, will it stop there.

I just thought I'd share some new alerts on pnf for gdx. GDX just got its RS (relative strength) change to O from being on X from Sept. Last time this happened was March. This is telling me that most likely the low isn't in and we have some more time on our hands before any big lasting rally.

The nyse bp now is at 71.25 (Dorsey's) ..over 70 is overbought but typically it can get to the 80-83 area. However, last year we went up to 76 then we reversed down.... a 6 pt reversal would do that. This might happen at higher levels too but it's a warning sign to watch. The NYSE 10 week is at extremes with 93.60..and the NYSE hi/low very extreme at 98 with the otc at 93...anything over 70 is overbought....those are short term indicators that could point to a intermediate top too..not there yet but just a warning sign.

Also the mutual funds are at extreme overbought which are indications of a top..whether short term to intermediate we won't know yet. Saturday is full moon..effects tomorrow/Monday..Bradley Tues..going up into this should be at least the short term top. The pullback will be bought at least the first time..Feb imo will be choppy. FWIW on Merriman he has a target of 13,624-13,932 or all time highs. He's been shorting gold and his favorable target is 1545-1589 if 1626 breaks but if 1523 breaks..then look for 1355-1400. But he's more in the camp that the Dec lows are in which is the 4.25 cycle low..if not then we look for that cycle low preferably Feb/March.

TM
P.S I did get some similar RS changes for other miners too but one I just got that had a trend change to negative which to me could be pointing to some ugliness in gold is FNV which is a royalty company for gold..if you recall I posted a trend change for gold end of Dec..gdx trend change early Dec..so it makes me wonder if fnv got a trend change..this isn't over for a while longer..the correction that is

[DrSP]

Mama, You may want to change the title of this thread. In other news, DUST at a near term highs. $$$$$

[tradermama]

I just thought I'd share some new alerts on pnf for gdx. GDX just got its RS (relative strength) change to O from being on X from Sept. Last time this happened was March. This is telling me that most likely the low isn't in and we have some more time on our hands before any big lasting rally.

The nyse bp now is at 71.25 (Dorsey's) ..over 70 is overbought but typically it can get to the 80-83 area. However, last year we went up to 76 then we reversed down.... a 6 pt reversal would do that. This might happen at higher levels too but it's a warning sign to watch. The NYSE 10 week is at extremes with 93.60..and the NYSE hi/low very extreme at 98 with the otc at 93...anything over 70 is overbought....those are short term indicators that could point to a intermediate top too..not there yet but just a warning sign.

Also the mutual funds are at extreme overbought which are indications of a top..whether short term to intermediate we won't know yet. Saturday is full moon..effects tomorrow/Monday..Bradley Tues..going up into this should be at least the short term top. The pullback will be bought at least the first time..Feb imo will be choppy. FWIW on Merriman he has a target of 13,624-13,932 or all time highs. He's been shorting gold and his favorable target is 1545-1589 if 1626 breaks but if 1523 breaks..then look for 1355-1400. But he's more in the camp that the Dec lows are in which is the 4.25 cycle low..if not then we look for that cycle low preferably Feb/March.

TM
P.S I did get some similar RS changes for other miners too but one I just got that had a trend change to negative which to me could be pointing to some ugliness in gold is FNV which is a royalty company for gold..if you recall I posted a trend change for gold end of Dec..gdx trend change early Dec..so it makes me wonder if fnv got a trend change..this isn't over for a while longer..the correction that is

All I can say when it comes to PNF..never underestimate the power of a pnf negative trend change and RS changing to O so close together..I have no idea where gdx stops nor gold. But the pnf target for gdx is 36.50 which I got a 2nd sell yesterday and gold is 1560. I'll be happy to post when this changes but even though 40 is support...this could easily break last year's lows..lots of the main miners RS turned to O too..one of the strongest ones I was following and had in the past is AEM..yesterday's it's RS turned to O.

Also looks like the equity top short term could be today to Monday..full moon/Bradley effect. The NYSE BP climbed now to 71.93%..only if we reverse down 6% from the top it becomes an intermdiate top. .As I stated before I think at this time for metals/miners to take off we would need either some fundamental news or equities to find a top of the 4 yr cycle could also go to a 5 yr cycle.

TM

[dasein]

Thanks for the updates - was hoping 1650 would hold but it looks less likely today....

[Russ]

TM: Nugt, Hui etc are looking pretty oversold now, three black crows, so perhaps a bounce into Feb. Dust went up into resistance and closed a gap. FNV looks like support is around $47 so a little more down on that one perhaps. I am impressed with Merriman who has obviously been calling this very well since your last summer posts since I have been following your posts on him. Cheers Russ

[tradermama]

TM:

Nugt, Hui etc are looking pretty oversold now, three black crows, so perhaps a bounce into Feb. Dust went up into resistance and closed a gap.

FNV looks like support is around $47 so a little more down on that one perhaps. I am impressed with Merriman who has obviously been calling this very well since your last summer posts since I have been following your posts on him.

Cheers

Russ

Hi Russ,
Yes, Merriman has been right on the money. That said, of course there will be a bounce to come for miners/metals but I'm in the camp (and this is not sentiment talking) that it's going to get uglier for miners..and this is not capitulation...here is the latest for the miners I follow with pnf alerts. And because of the recent changes on top of what I called out, this feels we will break last year's lows or at least get closer to it..breaking 40. If not, under these conditions then I would say, yea, we have seen the bottom and just consolidate. But sentiment just like being oversold can stay that way for a long time. I'm cutting and pasting some of my alerts from yesterday and the day before to give those an idea of what is really going on despite many thinking this is the bottom. Take it fwiw. I'm only a messenger but like I keep saying, it keeps the money in my pocket and I swear by using Dorsey's pnf combined with one's own TA to manage their risk. Again, trend and RS changes are very important. Believe me I want to be bullish but I'm going where the money is right now and not getting whipped around. I prefer playing swing positions and since end of Dec have been playing equities and will continue to do that till that changes or metals/miners change. I'm not a daytrader. Also at this time the nyse bp just climbed higher to 72.51%...the longer we climb without a pullback the more it is going to be an IT top imo.

Below all have pnf sells on it but I'm posting what I can for the important changes that are recent (past 2 days) and why I feel more down is coming. THE DWA RSPREC is an index from Dorsey's site and that means the Relative Strength for the index of precisious metals changed to O..so there's an index for the RS too and that just had the change the other day. Not good! That said, when there are signs of a bottom, which again I'm more in the camp Mid to late FEb to early March..AEM would be one of the best miners to go after..Last year John (Silentone) pointed out to me in June that it was making a 4,8, 16 yr cycle low and he gave me an alert on that. So this would be a good one to get when things are settling down.

GLTA
TM


AEM (this was one of the strongest miners in the group and this to me is a big warning sign)

Tech Attrib Changed because: •Stocks whose Trend has changed from Positive to Negative
Tech Attribs have Decreased by 1




FNV

Franco-Nevada Corp.

Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'




FNV


Tech Attrib Changed because: •Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'
Tech Attribs have Decreased by 1



FSM

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (Canada) ADR

1 Box From RS Sell



NG

NovaGold Resources Inc.

Stocks whose Weekly Momentum has changed from Positive to Negative




NUGT

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF

1 Box From RS Sell


RGLD

Royal Gold Inc

Breakout - Sell Signal (Signal Count 4) This has a negative trend recently and also now a bearish triangle which is about 80% accuracy for a big down..price objective 69

Now this are alerts from Thursday:


AEM

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.

Breakout - Sell Signal (Signal Count 2)




AEM

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.

Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'




AEM


Tech Attrib Changed because: •Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'
Tech Attribs have Decreased by 1


DWAPREC

Dorsey Wright Precious Metals Index

Breakout - Sell Signal (Signal Count 1)




DWAPREC

Dorsey Wright Precious Metals Index

Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'




EXK

Endeavour Silver Corp.

Breakout - Sell Signal (Signal Count 1)




EXK

Endeavour Silver Corp.

Stocks whose Trend has changed from Positive to Negative




EXK


Tech Attrib Changed because: •Stocks whose Trend has changed from Positive to Negative
Tech Attribs have Decreased by 1



GDX

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF

Breakout - Sell Signal (Signal Count 5




NUGT

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF

Breakout - Sell Signal (Signal Count 5)




RSXPREC

RS In Xs For Precious Metals

Status Change to Bear Confirmed




RSXPREC

RS In Xs For Precious Metals

Column Change to Os




gold/silver



SLW

Silver Wheaton Corporation

Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'




SLW


Tech Attrib Changed because: •Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'
Tech Attribs have Decreased by 1









Now, below is from my portfolio watch from Dorsey's site that I created. Sorry if it is wrapped around ..the first signal you see..example in abx..is the pnf buy..then the next signal is the RS signal whether a buy or sell..then the next signal is the RS to O or X..then finally the +/- is the trend .then the type of pattern.so that's it for now....

ABX Barrick Gold Corporation 32.81 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Sell O - Double Top Pos 7 -0.01150 34.208 36.457 37.171 32844 2.44

AEM Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. 45.88 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Sell O - Double Bottom Neg 19 0.00107 52.419 48.911 46.069 7892 1.92

AG First Majestic Silver Corporation (Canada) ADR 17.41 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Buy O + Double Top Neg 17 0.01777 21.074 19.878 18.653 2031 0.00

DWAPREC Dorsey Wright Precious Metals Index 252.65 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- None None Sell Sell O + Triple Bottom Neg 2 -0.00765 272.446 271.696 266.275 0 0.00

FNV Franco-Nevada Corp. 51.77 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Buy O - Bearish Catapult Neg 16 -0.00373 56.611 53.811 51.106 7587 1.39

FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (Canada) ADR 3.96 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Buy O - Double Top Pos 3 -0.00253 4.446 4.501 4.367 496 0.00

GC/ Gold Continuous 1658.40
None None Sell Buy O - Double Bottom Pos 2 0.00269 1691.888 1681.271 1664.009 0 0.00

GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF 41.92 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Sell O - Double Bottom Neg 2 -0.00402 46.044 47.285 46.749 8512 1.10

GLD SPDR Gold Trust 160.65
None None Sell Buy X + Double Bottom Pos 2 0.00209 163.810 162.713 161.226 71971 0.00

IYY iShares Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Idx 75.68
None None Buy None O + Double Top Pos 10 0.00577 72.039 70.907 70.105 639 1.89

NEM Newmont Mining Corporation 43.36 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Sell O - Double Top Pos 7 -0.01202 45.440 48.635 48.472 21313 3.23

NG NovaGold Resources Inc. 4.27 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Sell O - Double Bottom Neg 1 -0.01295 4.569 4.879 5.187 1195 0.00

NGD New Gold Inc. 9.41 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Sell O + Double Top Neg 2 -0.01563 10.621 10.811 10.406 4479 0.00

NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF 7.99
None None Sell Buy O - Double Bottom Neg 2 -0.02247 10.675 12.280 12.189 337 0.00

PZG Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. 2.20 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Sell O - Double Bottom Pos 5 -0.02157 2.290 2.418 2.385 325 0.00

RGLD Royal Gold Inc 76.69 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Buy O - Bearish Triangle Pos 5 -0.00468 81.034 83.066 78.994 4937 1.04

RIC Richmont Mines, Inc. 3.13 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Sell O - Double Bottom Pos 5 0.00593 3.209 3.813 4.434 124 0.00

RIO Rio Tinto PLC 55.80 Metals Non Ferrous
Bull Confirmed 40+ Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Sell X + Bullish Triangle Neg 3 -0.00769 53.679 49.809 49.746 78742 2.97

SAND Sandstorm Gold Ltd. 11.91 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Buy O + Double Top Pos 4 0.00584 12.104 11.244 10.557 1024 0.00

SI/ Silver Continuous 31.70
None None Sell Sell O + Double Bottom Pos 2 0.03580 31.877 30.873 30.672 0 0.00

SLV iShares Silver Trust 30.21
None None Sell Buy X + Double Bottom Pos 2 0.01120 30.904 30.057 29.715 10120 0.00

SLW Silver Wheaton Corporation 34.34 Precious Metals
Bull Correction 30- Basic Resources Basic Materials Sell Sell O + Double Bottom Pos 4 -0.00055 36.101 34.423 32.767 12169 0.82

UV/Y Continuous Commodity Index 561.75
None None Buy Sell O - Double Top Pos 2 0.00427 564.114 564.015 556.209 0 0.00

XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF 44.57
Basic Resources Basic Materials Buy Sell O + Double Top Neg 2 0.00006 43.968 42.970 43.182 992 1.38

ZSL ProShares UltraShort Silver 46.59
None None Sell Buy X - Double Bottom Neg 2 -0.01676 45.512 51.341 53.906 91 0.00

[tradermama]

TM:

Nugt, Hui etc are looking pretty oversold now, three black crows, so perhaps a bounce into Feb. Dust went up into resistance and closed a gap.

FNV looks like support is around $47 so a little more down on that one perhaps. I am impressed with Merriman who has obviously been calling this very well since your last summer posts since I have been following your posts on him.

Cheers

Russ

Russ,
FNV just got a pnf trend change to negative..see my post this morning ..it's in the alerts. So this tells me yes we can bounce ..and the pnf target is 49. It got a bearish catapult on 1/23 and across the board very negative recently. That target could easily go to your 47 area but the monthly looks bad. I think a lot depends on where gold holds. If gold gets to Armstrong's target of 1400 then I would think we see in under 40. The problem I see are these trend changes and RS changes. The pnf signals can flip to a buy and we can get all bullish but the important thing will be to change that RS back to X and trend back to + otherwise it's a counter trend rally. We'll see. But FNV and RGLD will be the best plays when gold turns.

Best to you (I think I posted enough today on my opinion..LOL) now to enjoy the day

TM

[tomterrific14]

TM:

Nugt, Hui etc are looking pretty oversold now, three black crows, so perhaps a bounce into Feb. Dust went up into resistance and closed a gap.

FNV looks like support is around $47 so a little more down on that one perhaps. I am impressed with Merriman who has obviously been calling this very well since your last summer posts since I have been following your posts on him.

Cheers

Russ

http://www.traderslo...ws-candlestick/

http://www.candlesti...ndex.html#Three Crows (Bullish)

Need confirmation of a bullish reversal on Monday with either a dogi star, engulfing pattern, hammer, Harami, Hamari cross, Inverted hammer, Piercing pattern, Rising three, star , Thrusting line.

The significance of further confirmation by any of these Monday candlesticks is heightened as GDX, NUGT, etc, are at minor and major horizontal supports.

Still, short and intermediate trends are down, so any rally will be short lived, pending $Gold's price action.

[tomterrific14]

TM:

Nugt, Hui etc are looking pretty oversold now, three black crows, so perhaps a bounce into Feb. Dust went up into resistance and closed a gap.

FNV looks like support is around $47 so a little more down on that one perhaps. I am impressed with Merriman who has obviously been calling this very well since your last summer posts since I have been following your posts on him.

Cheers

Russ

Russ,
FNV just got a pnf trend change to negative..see my post this morning ..it's in the alerts. So this tells me yes we can bounce ..and the pnf target is 49. It got a bearish catapult on 1/23 and across the board very negative recently. That target could easily go to your 47 area but the monthly looks bad. I think a lot depends on where gold holds. If gold gets to Armstrong's target of 1400 then I would think we see in under 40. The problem I see are these trend changes and RS changes. The pnf signals can flip to a buy and we can get all bullish but the important thing will be to change that RS back to X and trend back to + otherwise it's a counter trend rally. We'll see. But FNV and RGLD will be the best plays when gold turns.

Best to you (I think I posted enough today on my opinion..LOL) now to enjoy the day

TM

http://www.candlesti...ndex.html#Three Crows (Bullish)

Need confirmation of a bullish reversal on Monday with either a dogi star, engulfing pattern, hammer, Harami, Hamari cross, Inverted hammer, Piercing pattern, Rising three, star , Thrusting line.

The significance of further confirmation by any of these Monday candlesticks is heightened as GDX, NUGT, etc, are at minor and major horizontal supports.

Still, short and intermediate trends are down, so any rally will be short lived, pending $Gold's price action.