we are at the top of a 70 yr old channel for the broads...a close over this would be bullish for the broads..especially if we close over that tomorrow end of month.
http://blog.kimblech...7highsjan30.gif
Miners not enjoying the party today. Maybe they get excited if 1700 gets touched for gold..which would now be the new pnf buy signal
TM
Update pnf on GDX and broads
Started by
tradermama
, Jan 24 2013 06:54 AM
34 replies to this topic
#12
tradermama
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Posted 02 February 2013 - 08:15 AM
The NYSE Bp (Dorsey's) is now at 74.06 and all in one month. Last year from Jan to April we got to 76%. Again, over 70% is overbought but not extreme till you get into the 80%. That said as we all know it all happened in 1 month and I am getting some short term indicators showing some reversals that an intermediate top is coming in which I believe might coincide with 2/10 new moon. Of course the IT can turn into a LT top but I think this goes much further than we think only because money appears to be coming out of bonds into the equities and I heard on cnbc them talking about millionaires just holding their noses and putting money in equities because they realize they aren't getting anything in bonds and also the possible bond bubble busting. So I think it gets bought for March's earnings. However, I'll let the alerts tell me if this turns into something negative and a LT top is in.
This week I got a RS sell on nugt which I have mentioned RS buys/sells or trend changes don't turn around that quickly. Also, on this thread I reported others. So miners look like they could still fall further. I'm wondering if perhaps that negative gdp put a floor in for metals too. It may not break out yet but perhaps some more consolidation as long as 1626 holds. Silver still is the strongest and its 50 ma is above its 200 ma.
Below I thought I'd give you the weekly from Merriman. Looks like we are headed for some more irrational exuberance this week. But first I also listed the alerts that I got this week on metals/miners
TM
Stocks that have Changed RS vs Mkt from Buy to Sell
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF - 01/31/2013 N/A precisious metals
Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'
FNV Franco-Nevada Corp. - 01/25/2013 Precious Metals 3 precisious metals
Selling Climaxes
NEM Newmont Mining Corporation Precious Metals 0 precisious metals
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF N/A precisious metals
Stocks whose Weekly Momentum has changed from Positive to Negative
Symbol Name Sector TA/Score Portfolios
ABX Barrick Gold Corporation Precious Metals 0 precisious metals
NG NovaGold Resources Inc. Precious Metals 0 precisious metals
1 Box From RS Sell
FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (Canada) ADR Precious Metals 1 precisious metals
Stocks whose price has crossed Above 50 Day Moving Average
SI/ Silver Continuous 1 precisious metals
XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF N/A precisious metals
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN AND COMMENTS FOR THE
WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 4, 2013
Raymond A. Merriman ©
Review and Preview
Happy days are here again!
The USA Payroll reports of Friday, February 1, showed an increase of 157,000 new jobs for January, and December’s payroll was revised upwards to nearly 200,000. On the back of this positive news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 14,000 for the first time since 2007, while many other indices around the world also marched to new yearly and even multi-year highs. If it feels like a bombardment of Jupiter energies, well… it is! And it may not be over for a few more days, as the Moon will be in Jupiter’s home sign of Sagittarius at the start of next week, and then more transits involving Jupiter arise later this next week.
Strength was also noted last week in the Euro currency against the U.S. Dollar, but also in the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen. Of course, this means the Euro was especially strong against the Japanese Yen, a source of consternation for Europeans who will soon see their world trade advantage erode against the oncoming Japanese recovery. The currency wars are not over.
In precious metals, Gold and Silver started the week under pressure, and then recovered as the week wore on. However, it wasn’t a smooth ride and the end result was that both metals continued to trade between their lows of January 4 and highs of January 17-23. Crude Oil, however, was higher last week, reaching a peak of 98.24 on January 30, its highest level since September 17, 2012. This is consistent with the multiple Jupiter signatures that were in force January 25-30, for Jupiter – along with Neptune – rules the Crude Oil market.
Best Trade of the Week
Not many new trades were initiated last week, and of those that were, it is too early to tell if they are, or will become, “good trades.” One example was in Friday’s daily report for the Euro currency, which advised, “Position traders may still sell short if prices rally to 1.3708-1.3778 with a stop-loss on a close above this range. Aggressive traders may do the same.” The high on Friday in the March Euro was 1.3715 and the close was 1.3665.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are in the midst of a long string of consecutive geocosmic signatures from January 25-March 6. Different financial markets are apt to reverse at different times during this time band. Their cycles will not likely climax on the same day.
Nevertheless, Financial Astrology provides insight into the collective thinking of the day. By understanding these dynamics, one can begin to piece together where the dynamics are being highlighted, and which markets are most apt to be responsive. Any one of these can coincide with a change in market sentiment, or investor psychology, or even political decision-making, which in turn affects various financial markets.
The next week finds some rather fascinating signatures unfolding. These actually started on Friday, February 1, with two planets changing signs: Venus moved from the serious-minded sign of Capricorn into the progressive and modernistic sign of Aquarius, and Mars moved from Aquarius to Pisces. The later ingress is most noteworthy for two reasons. First, Mars is an aggressive dynamic and Pisces is a passive quality (passive-aggressive). Second, Mars will conjunct Neptune on Monday, February 4. Since Neptune rules Pisces, it too has the qualities of gentleness and passivity. So once again, we see this passive-aggressive quality at work. Watch for public comments that at first attempt to show support for a particular point of view or political direction, but end up negating or criticizing what they just supported. This could be particularly of interest regarding the debate on gun control laws – the announcement of understanding and support for them, followed by the wish to transform or end them. Mars and Neptune can also represent foggy conditions leading to accidents, oil spills, and the desire to exhibit compassion for those who suffer or are somehow thrust into the role of victims. In terms of markets, it can be a rumor that leads to speculative buying or selling, followed by a report of a false alarm.
However, it is later in the week that may be of most importance to equity traders. On Thursday, February 7, Venus will trine Jupiter. This will be followed by a square between Mars and Jupiter on February 10. In a sense, we will have Mars making a translation to a wide Jupiter-Neptune square. This is a dynamic that Alan Greenspan would relate as “irrational exuberance.” It is possible that equities continue their parabolic rise into then, for whenever Jupiter is so active, trends of financial markets can either soar way above expectations and resistance, or fall way below support. Its either wild but misplaced exuberance, or hysteria and panic. Right now it looks more like the former.
On top of all that, there will be a new moon in Aquarius on February 10. Then comes a slew of Saturn signatures, February 11-18. The hopes of Jupiter get dashed by the realities of Saturn.
Longer-Term Thoughts
“There is a belief system – a venom almost – there is a whole sector of human beings who not only b*tch about the way the world is, they even become more hostile if someone dares to suggest an idea or thought that could make it better.” – Dan Gilbert, chairman of Quicken Loans and owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers professional basketball team, Detroit Free Press, January 31, 2013.
“Even among the president’s supporters, one is hard put now to find anyone who doesn’t recognize that Mr. Obama’s original appeal to hope and change has given way to search and destroy… The original argument for the Obama presidency was that this was a new, open-minded and liberal man, intent on elevating the common good. No one believes that now.” – Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2013.
The Mars-Neptune conjunction this week (February 4) tales place at 2º Pisces. This will be within one-degree of orb to President Obama’s Moon (in Gemini) – Pluto square. Mr. Obama’s easy aspects now end, and he enters a 2-3 year period of immense challenges to his ideology that will likely define his legacy as either a very brilliant or very misguided leader.
This will be an interesting study for Mundane Astrologers – those who study the charts or world leaders and nations. Neptune, as a transit in such a powerful position to one’s natal planets, can represent the highest of ideals, the most spiritual and charismatic of all virtues, the height of caring and compassion for all people. It is the dream, the ideal, that everyone seeks by the highest qualities of human character. If one exemplifies these virtues, he becomes a hero, a legend. He ascends to a pedestal of great honor and respect in the eyes of his community.
However, the ascent to this pedestal may be fraught with great personal tests and temptations. Not only does Neptune represent dreams and the highest of ideals, but it can also represent disillusionment – disillusionment in people who violate trust and let one down, or disillusionment in other people who held this individual in such high esteem, but then in the end, he let them down. With Neptune, one must also be watchful of deception, betrayal, deceit. But is it that the person is vulnerable to these acts by others, or the cause of them to others? With Neptune, it can be either, or both. The key to navigating successfully through Neptune transits is trust (to be trustworthy at all times and with all people) and compassion (caring for others with sincerity and authenticity). If you succeed, your legacy is intact. If you fail, you fall from grace.
In years past, I have indicated that Obama could be vulnerable to an impeachment effort in his second term. It is on the basis of this forthcoming transit. Neptune, at its worst in this type of configuration, may represent a scandal or disgrace, a great embarrassment. But in the theory of astrological dynamics, the belief is that character is destiny. And so whether Mr. Obama rises to a great height as a great leader, or falls from grace in these next 2-3 years, is entirely dependent upon his character, especially regarding the dynamics of trustworthiness and compassion. The choice will be his, and the result of his choices these next 2-3 years will secure his role in history.
These next two weeks may offer the first glimpse of how he will react to this cosmic challenge. The hope is that he returns to the spirit of his original message of “hope and change,” intent on elevating the common good, and refrains from the temptation to “search and destroy,” as described in the Wall Street Journal article. The quality of this nation’s future – as well as his own personal future - may depend greatly upon this choice of direction.
This week I got a RS sell on nugt which I have mentioned RS buys/sells or trend changes don't turn around that quickly. Also, on this thread I reported others. So miners look like they could still fall further. I'm wondering if perhaps that negative gdp put a floor in for metals too. It may not break out yet but perhaps some more consolidation as long as 1626 holds. Silver still is the strongest and its 50 ma is above its 200 ma.
Below I thought I'd give you the weekly from Merriman. Looks like we are headed for some more irrational exuberance this week. But first I also listed the alerts that I got this week on metals/miners
TM
Stocks that have Changed RS vs Mkt from Buy to Sell
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF - 01/31/2013 N/A precisious metals
Stocks that have Reversed RS vs Mkt to 'O'
FNV Franco-Nevada Corp. - 01/25/2013 Precious Metals 3 precisious metals
Selling Climaxes
NEM Newmont Mining Corporation Precious Metals 0 precisious metals
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x ETF N/A precisious metals
Stocks whose Weekly Momentum has changed from Positive to Negative
Symbol Name Sector TA/Score Portfolios
ABX Barrick Gold Corporation Precious Metals 0 precisious metals
NG NovaGold Resources Inc. Precious Metals 0 precisious metals
1 Box From RS Sell
FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (Canada) ADR Precious Metals 1 precisious metals
Stocks whose price has crossed Above 50 Day Moving Average
SI/ Silver Continuous 1 precisious metals
XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF N/A precisious metals
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN AND COMMENTS FOR THE
WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 4, 2013
Raymond A. Merriman ©
Review and Preview
Happy days are here again!
The USA Payroll reports of Friday, February 1, showed an increase of 157,000 new jobs for January, and December’s payroll was revised upwards to nearly 200,000. On the back of this positive news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 14,000 for the first time since 2007, while many other indices around the world also marched to new yearly and even multi-year highs. If it feels like a bombardment of Jupiter energies, well… it is! And it may not be over for a few more days, as the Moon will be in Jupiter’s home sign of Sagittarius at the start of next week, and then more transits involving Jupiter arise later this next week.
Strength was also noted last week in the Euro currency against the U.S. Dollar, but also in the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen. Of course, this means the Euro was especially strong against the Japanese Yen, a source of consternation for Europeans who will soon see their world trade advantage erode against the oncoming Japanese recovery. The currency wars are not over.
In precious metals, Gold and Silver started the week under pressure, and then recovered as the week wore on. However, it wasn’t a smooth ride and the end result was that both metals continued to trade between their lows of January 4 and highs of January 17-23. Crude Oil, however, was higher last week, reaching a peak of 98.24 on January 30, its highest level since September 17, 2012. This is consistent with the multiple Jupiter signatures that were in force January 25-30, for Jupiter – along with Neptune – rules the Crude Oil market.
Best Trade of the Week
Not many new trades were initiated last week, and of those that were, it is too early to tell if they are, or will become, “good trades.” One example was in Friday’s daily report for the Euro currency, which advised, “Position traders may still sell short if prices rally to 1.3708-1.3778 with a stop-loss on a close above this range. Aggressive traders may do the same.” The high on Friday in the March Euro was 1.3715 and the close was 1.3665.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are in the midst of a long string of consecutive geocosmic signatures from January 25-March 6. Different financial markets are apt to reverse at different times during this time band. Their cycles will not likely climax on the same day.
Nevertheless, Financial Astrology provides insight into the collective thinking of the day. By understanding these dynamics, one can begin to piece together where the dynamics are being highlighted, and which markets are most apt to be responsive. Any one of these can coincide with a change in market sentiment, or investor psychology, or even political decision-making, which in turn affects various financial markets.
The next week finds some rather fascinating signatures unfolding. These actually started on Friday, February 1, with two planets changing signs: Venus moved from the serious-minded sign of Capricorn into the progressive and modernistic sign of Aquarius, and Mars moved from Aquarius to Pisces. The later ingress is most noteworthy for two reasons. First, Mars is an aggressive dynamic and Pisces is a passive quality (passive-aggressive). Second, Mars will conjunct Neptune on Monday, February 4. Since Neptune rules Pisces, it too has the qualities of gentleness and passivity. So once again, we see this passive-aggressive quality at work. Watch for public comments that at first attempt to show support for a particular point of view or political direction, but end up negating or criticizing what they just supported. This could be particularly of interest regarding the debate on gun control laws – the announcement of understanding and support for them, followed by the wish to transform or end them. Mars and Neptune can also represent foggy conditions leading to accidents, oil spills, and the desire to exhibit compassion for those who suffer or are somehow thrust into the role of victims. In terms of markets, it can be a rumor that leads to speculative buying or selling, followed by a report of a false alarm.
However, it is later in the week that may be of most importance to equity traders. On Thursday, February 7, Venus will trine Jupiter. This will be followed by a square between Mars and Jupiter on February 10. In a sense, we will have Mars making a translation to a wide Jupiter-Neptune square. This is a dynamic that Alan Greenspan would relate as “irrational exuberance.” It is possible that equities continue their parabolic rise into then, for whenever Jupiter is so active, trends of financial markets can either soar way above expectations and resistance, or fall way below support. Its either wild but misplaced exuberance, or hysteria and panic. Right now it looks more like the former.
On top of all that, there will be a new moon in Aquarius on February 10. Then comes a slew of Saturn signatures, February 11-18. The hopes of Jupiter get dashed by the realities of Saturn.
Longer-Term Thoughts
“There is a belief system – a venom almost – there is a whole sector of human beings who not only b*tch about the way the world is, they even become more hostile if someone dares to suggest an idea or thought that could make it better.” – Dan Gilbert, chairman of Quicken Loans and owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers professional basketball team, Detroit Free Press, January 31, 2013.
“Even among the president’s supporters, one is hard put now to find anyone who doesn’t recognize that Mr. Obama’s original appeal to hope and change has given way to search and destroy… The original argument for the Obama presidency was that this was a new, open-minded and liberal man, intent on elevating the common good. No one believes that now.” – Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2013.
The Mars-Neptune conjunction this week (February 4) tales place at 2º Pisces. This will be within one-degree of orb to President Obama’s Moon (in Gemini) – Pluto square. Mr. Obama’s easy aspects now end, and he enters a 2-3 year period of immense challenges to his ideology that will likely define his legacy as either a very brilliant or very misguided leader.
This will be an interesting study for Mundane Astrologers – those who study the charts or world leaders and nations. Neptune, as a transit in such a powerful position to one’s natal planets, can represent the highest of ideals, the most spiritual and charismatic of all virtues, the height of caring and compassion for all people. It is the dream, the ideal, that everyone seeks by the highest qualities of human character. If one exemplifies these virtues, he becomes a hero, a legend. He ascends to a pedestal of great honor and respect in the eyes of his community.
However, the ascent to this pedestal may be fraught with great personal tests and temptations. Not only does Neptune represent dreams and the highest of ideals, but it can also represent disillusionment – disillusionment in people who violate trust and let one down, or disillusionment in other people who held this individual in such high esteem, but then in the end, he let them down. With Neptune, one must also be watchful of deception, betrayal, deceit. But is it that the person is vulnerable to these acts by others, or the cause of them to others? With Neptune, it can be either, or both. The key to navigating successfully through Neptune transits is trust (to be trustworthy at all times and with all people) and compassion (caring for others with sincerity and authenticity). If you succeed, your legacy is intact. If you fail, you fall from grace.
In years past, I have indicated that Obama could be vulnerable to an impeachment effort in his second term. It is on the basis of this forthcoming transit. Neptune, at its worst in this type of configuration, may represent a scandal or disgrace, a great embarrassment. But in the theory of astrological dynamics, the belief is that character is destiny. And so whether Mr. Obama rises to a great height as a great leader, or falls from grace in these next 2-3 years, is entirely dependent upon his character, especially regarding the dynamics of trustworthiness and compassion. The choice will be his, and the result of his choices these next 2-3 years will secure his role in history.
These next two weeks may offer the first glimpse of how he will react to this cosmic challenge. The hope is that he returns to the spirit of his original message of “hope and change,” intent on elevating the common good, and refrains from the temptation to “search and destroy,” as described in the Wall Street Journal article. The quality of this nation’s future – as well as his own personal future - may depend greatly upon this choice of direction.
#13
tradermama
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#14
dougie
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Posted 02 February 2013 - 02:07 PM
intersting times.
Edited by dougie, 02 February 2013 - 02:12 PM.
#15
tradermama
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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:16 AM
I just got my first pnf buy signal on a miner that I haven't seen for a while..Randgold. Also it's becoming obvious when the markets go down..miners/metals go up..and vice versa..
TM
#16
dougie
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Posted 04 February 2013 - 12:25 PM
and when the yne goes up and euro down gold up
#17
tradermama
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Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:15 AM
A higher hi in gold futures this morning compared to last week's try and with equities futures up big too..perhaps they are back in sync again and qe3 finally getting into the gold again...we need to close 1681+..and again 1700 is pnf buy signal
TM
#18
tradermama
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Posted 08 February 2013 - 06:38 AM
First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..
43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see
Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold
TM
Edited by tradermama, 08 February 2013 - 06:40 AM.
#19
tomterrific14
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Posted 08 February 2013 - 08:24 AM
First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..
43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see
Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold
TM
I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=
And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.
#20
tradermama
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Posted 08 February 2013 - 11:00 AM
Keep in mind as I've posted before I use Dorsey's pnf..it's not the same as stockcharts..more reliable..I have nugt too and slowly accumulating it..and I do feel we are seeing some sort of rally coming soon...but whether is the real deal or a counter trend..only time would tell...there's so much more to pnf that you get with Dorsey vs stockcharts..like the RS and trend ..among other things like internals..it's so different..been using it since 2000...he has books out on it too..but you can get a free trial for 3 weeks if you want to see for yourselfFirst positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..
43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see
Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold
TM
I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=
And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.
TM
Edited by tradermama, 08 February 2013 - 11:02 AM.
