34 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..

43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see

Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold

TM

I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=

And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.

Keep in mind as I've posted before I use Dorsey's pnf..it's not the same as stockcharts..more reliable..I have nugt too and slowly accumulating it..and I do feel we are seeing some sort of rally coming soon...but whether is the real deal or a counter trend..only time would tell...there's so much more to pnf that you get with Dorsey vs stockcharts..like the RS and trend ..among other things like internals..it's so different..been using it since 2000...he has books out on it too..but you can get a free trial for 3 weeks if you want to see for yourself
TM

One more thing to remember this is just a pnf sell signal..the trend is up for dust..down for gdx/nugt. And yes nothing 100%..but the bearish triangle is about 80% you will see a move down..it's price objective is 35.50 but it doesn't have to get there..the site is having problems now but most likely a pnf buy is 42.50 which was the last high..so that would negate all of this
TM

[tradermama]

First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..

43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see

Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold

TM

I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=

And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.

Keep in mind as I've posted before I use Dorsey's pnf..it's not the same as stockcharts..more reliable..I have nugt too and slowly accumulating it..and I do feel we are seeing some sort of rally coming soon...but whether is the real deal or a counter trend..only time would tell...there's so much more to pnf that you get with Dorsey vs stockcharts..like the RS and trend ..among other things like internals..it's so different..been using it since 2000...he has books out on it too..but you can get a free trial for 3 weeks if you want to see for yourself
TM

One more thing to remember this is just a pnf sell signal..the trend is up for dust..down for gdx/nugt. And yes nothing 100%..but the bearish triangle is about 80% you will see a move down..it's price objective is 35.50 but it doesn't have to get there..the site is having problems now but most likely a pnf buy is 42.50 which was the last high..so that would negate all of this
TM

Regarding Dust, I made a mistake 40.50 would negate the pattern..not 42.50..
TM

[tradermama]

First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..

43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see

Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold

TM

I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=

And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.

TT, (by the way your name brings back memories of the beloved Captain Kangaroo..I use to enjoy Tom Terrific)

Here is one difference you get from Dorsey's pnf that you can't find on Stockcharts and even John Murphy gives credit to Dorsey on pnf. This is from this morning's Dorsey's update which typically I would not have posted because it'sa paid site but this teaches you a better understanding on pnf..it's not just a buy signal we watch. So I hope Dorsey didn't mind this little snipet I posted but I'm promoting his style because it's a life saver when it comes to risk/reward and keeping profits imo.
TM

What are Technical Attributes?

Before we get into the quantitative measures of the value Technical Attributes can provide, we first want to walk-thru the tenets of this rating system. W evaluating a stock (or any investment vehicle for that matter), the two components we are most concerned with are relative strength and trend analysis, and the Technical Attribute Rating system is nothing more than an effective means for quantifying the presence (or absence) of those attributes at any point in time.

In order to simplify this process, while also aggregating the most pertinent technical data, we created our Technical Attributes as a rating system for stocks. There are a total of 5 technical attributes any given stock can attain, which we have outlined below:


5 Positive Technical Attributes

Relative Strength chart versus the Market on a Buy signal
Relative Strength chart versus the Market column in X's
Relative Strength chart versus its Peer group on a Buy signal
Relative Strength chart versus its Peer group column in X's
Trading above the Bullish Support Line.

If a stock has all five of these qualities, it is a strong stock technically, a market leader that is also trending higher in price. If a stock has none of these five qualities, it is a weak stock carrying much more risk and a far more speculative outlook than other alternatives. That doesn't mean such a stock can't rise, but our odds of outperformance are much narrower with low attribute names versus high attribute names. On a similar note, it is impractical to want every stock you buy to have all five traits listed above positive, so having three or more will be sufficient and increases the odds of success. From an implementation standpoint, using technical attributes to evaluate existing portfolios and especially portfolios being transferred over to you, certainly makes sense.

[tomterrific14]

First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..

43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see

Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold

TM

I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=

And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.

TT, (by the way your name brings back memories of the beloved Captain Kangaroo..I use to enjoy Tom Terrific)

Here is one difference you get from Dorsey's pnf that you can't find on Stockcharts and even John Murphy gives credit to Dorsey on pnf. This is from this morning's Dorsey's update which typically I would not have posted because it'sa paid site but this teaches you a better understanding on pnf..it's not just a buy signal we watch. So I hope Dorsey didn't mind this little snipet I posted but I'm promoting his style because it's a life saver when it comes to risk/reward and keeping profits imo.
TM

What are Technical Attributes?

Before we get into the quantitative measures of the value Technical Attributes can provide, we first want to walk-thru the tenets of this rating system. W evaluating a stock (or any investment vehicle for that matter), the two components we are most concerned with are relative strength and trend analysis, and the Technical Attribute Rating system is nothing more than an effective means for quantifying the presence (or absence) of those attributes at any point in time.

In order to simplify this process, while also aggregating the most pertinent technical data, we created our Technical Attributes as a rating system for stocks. There are a total of 5 technical attributes any given stock can attain, which we have outlined below:


5 Positive Technical Attributes

Relative Strength chart versus the Market on a Buy signal
Relative Strength chart versus the Market column in X's
Relative Strength chart versus its Peer group on a Buy signal
Relative Strength chart versus its Peer group column in X's
Trading above the Bullish Support Line.

If a stock has all five of these qualities, it is a strong stock technically, a market leader that is also trending higher in price. If a stock has none of these five qualities, it is a weak stock carrying much more risk and a far more speculative outlook than other alternatives. That doesn't mean such a stock can't rise, but our odds of outperformance are much narrower with low attribute names versus high attribute names. On a similar note, it is impractical to want every stock you buy to have all five traits listed above positive, so having three or more will be sufficient and increases the odds of success. From an implementation standpoint, using technical attributes to evaluate existing portfolios and especially portfolios being transferred over to you, certainly makes sense.

Tom Terrific

Captain Kangaroo

Agree with the Dorsey method of PnF, which places emphasis on "a trend in motion tends to stay in motion". Picking significant tops or bottoms is not easy when not enough weight is given to this fact.

[tradermama]

First positive sign for miners in a while..DUST got a pnf sell..and it's a bearish triangle which normally is a good downward move...80% reliable..which of course is good for GDX..This could be the beginning of a bottom..but until the RS turns to X or a Buy with a positive trend change..it could also be a counter trend rally..but it's a start...and we are headed into mid Feb to late Feb which we are in a time period for a primary low for gold..

43.50 is a pnf buy for GDX. and nugt needs 8.75 for its pnf buy....I would think this comes by next week ..we shall see

Merriman is looking for a low in Feb/March for gold to start a big rally..but we need to touch 1700 for a pnf buy signal for gold

TM

I hope you're right on DUST as I have a small position in NUGT. However, I see no PnF sell on DUST.
http://stockcharts.c...?...,P&listNum=

And the daily chart of DUST looks like consolidation between 38 and 42. Yes, the pattern over the last 9 days appears as a triangle, but it could be a continuation triangle.

TT, (by the way your name brings back memories of the beloved Captain Kangaroo..I use to enjoy Tom Terrific)

Here is one difference you get from Dorsey's pnf that you can't find on Stockcharts and even John Murphy gives credit to Dorsey on pnf. This is from this morning's Dorsey's update which typically I would not have posted because it'sa paid site but this teaches you a better understanding on pnf..it's not just a buy signal we watch. So I hope Dorsey didn't mind this little snipet I posted but I'm promoting his style because it's a life saver when it comes to risk/reward and keeping profits imo.
TM

What are Technical Attributes?

Before we get into the quantitative measures of the value Technical Attributes can provide, we first want to walk-thru the tenets of this rating system. W evaluating a stock (or any investment vehicle for that matter), the two components we are most concerned with are relative strength and trend analysis, and the Technical Attribute Rating system is nothing more than an effective means for quantifying the presence (or absence) of those attributes at any point in time.

In order to simplify this process, while also aggregating the most pertinent technical data, we created our Technical Attributes as a rating system for stocks. There are a total of 5 technical attributes any given stock can attain, which we have outlined below:


5 Positive Technical Attributes

Relative Strength chart versus the Market on a Buy signal
Relative Strength chart versus the Market column in X's
Relative Strength chart versus its Peer group on a Buy signal
Relative Strength chart versus its Peer group column in X's
Trading above the Bullish Support Line.

If a stock has all five of these qualities, it is a strong stock technically, a market leader that is also trending higher in price. If a stock has none of these five qualities, it is a weak stock carrying much more risk and a far more speculative outlook than other alternatives. That doesn't mean such a stock can't rise, but our odds of outperformance are much narrower with low attribute names versus high attribute names. On a similar note, it is impractical to want every stock you buy to have all five traits listed above positive, so having three or more will be sufficient and increases the odds of success. From an implementation standpoint, using technical attributes to evaluate existing portfolios and especially portfolios being transferred over to you, certainly makes sense.

Tom Terrific

Captain Kangaroo

Agree with the Dorsey method of PnF, which places emphasis on "a trend in motion tends to stay in motion". Picking significant tops or bottoms is not easy when not enough weight is given to this fact.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LDgpQyuvAo
Let's not forget Bunny Rabbit and Moose...LOL!
Simplicity at its best!..and that's where I'm headed as I age...we were fortunate to have lived during those times imo.

Yes, Dorsey's method is the best because of how you have to look at it from a RS/trend view mainly. Like I said you can get a free 3 week trial and they dont charge you card, create a portfolio to get the idea..plus there is education information on it..and his daily updates. Combining this with other TA for me, makes trading more relaxed. He also sometimes gives you a good heads up on a stock/etf. Last year when gdx RS turned to an O in March, that told me to be cautious on miners and then i turned back to X in September. If one followed that you would have kept those profits from early last year if you were playing long. So I'll be watching for that as a first sign we could have an IT rallly at the minimal. GDX RS to hit a buy signal at this time woul need to hit 59.043 so it's a ways away for that but the RS turns X first...that is a variable method that has to be recalculated daily based on the movement of the IYY (Total Market IShares) which is used to determine the RS. We never did get that RS Buy in the fall which I was watching for so when I got a trend change early Dec that was even a bigger heads up.
TM

[tradermama]

Dust got a buy now..so that negated that bearish triangle sell the othe day... TM

[risk_management]

Why would you be using DUST and NUGT in your analysis? They are derivatives and obviously decaying.

[tradermama]

Why would you be using DUST and NUGT in your analysis? They are derivatives and obviously decaying.

There is no real analysis here just posting signal alerts I get from Dorsey's pnf. Dust had a strong pnf sell signal on Thursday that was a possible sign that Nugt/Gdx could be getting their buy signals which they haven't had one in months and they were very close Friday to one as I listed it. Now that's negated as Dust just got a pnf buy. I've explained the difference between Dorsey/Stockcharts pnf too in this thread. Despite Dust having a high probability of achieving some downside (80%) after that sell alert, it didn't work. And I'm well aware they are derivatives too. I typically use the actually index for any real analysis and have posted that info where the trend changed and so on for gdx.
TM

Edited by tradermama, 11 February 2013 - 12:36 PM.

[DrSP]

Mama, Let's be honest. This one day buy and one day sell (on Pnf!!!!!!) is getting pretty tiring......for your followers. Why bother? GDX is at the lows, DUST is at the highs. Fools made money being short GDX . Till the trend changes, stock to it. We appreciate your long posts, though they provide no extrinsic value.

[tradermama]

Mama, Let's be honest. This one day buy and one day sell (on Pnf!!!!!!) is getting pretty tiring......for your followers. Why bother? GDX is at the lows, DUST is at the highs. Fools made money being short GDX . Till the trend changes, stock to it. We appreciate your long posts, though they provide no extrinsic value.

Sir, I took you off ignore for a reason and I guess I was wrong for that. There's nothing to be honest about...because I'm the most honest person you could meet. These are not my interpretations. I'm only posting alerts and what they mean..and just guessing g what it might possibly mean..for some rally that could be coming soon.

I"m not fricken guru and don't want to be. When I said I wasn't going to post anymore because of your persistent insulting posts, I got a lot of emails from people saying they wanted me to post pnf and things from Merriman and to ignore you. I dont have to answer to you nor anyone.
I've posted the trend being down and the value of RS and trend changes and any rallies could be counter trend rallies till they are not. These pnf buy/sell signals can flip back and forth especially in a bottoming period which all I'm saying is we could be in one for a multi week rally but that may not last too. But most times when the probabilty of a pattern is high, they work.

If you have actually read what I write, you would see I read both sides and I posted the most important change for me outside of everyone here's posts is when I see the RS/Trend changes otherwise it's tradeable.

The last Dust was a bust for sure but most of these have been pretty much on the money. And the only mistake I made is taking you off ignore.
TM
P.S and I'm NOT your mama!