131 replies to this topic

[dougie]

but first we go up!
why the october time frame?

Closing some gaps from Dec 2008, we are.

Doc

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p13991490545&a=295142502&r=1366257029109.png

Will the grand H&S top objective be fullfilled.? Neckline 150, Head 230=80 minus 150 =70

And I have a potential time to achieve this unthinkable objective, October 2013 or thereabouts.

-tria

[tria]

Dougie,

Eric Hadik in a free email, suggested a late April to very early May as a potential low in Gold, then a June high and then a more important low in Ocober.

An October low ties in with the Gann crowds 60 year low, I believe.
https://dl.dropboxus.....p 1953-54.jpg

Personally I am not sure if the April/early May or the October low will be the more important one. The October low may mean a retest or the begining of a real bull trend and possibly from a lower level. In September the sideways to up in the USD should end as well. It may have to do with Merkel becoming less dogmatic with her austerity obsession after being reelected. Just my present thoughts. Price rules as always.

-tria

[dharma]

Dougie,

Eric Hadik in a free email, suggested a late April to very early May as a potential low in Gold, then a June high and then a more important low in Ocober.

An October low ties in with the Gann crowds 60 year low, I believe.
https://dl.dropboxus.....p 1953-54.jpg

Personally I am not sure if the April/early May or the October low will be the more important one. The October low may mean a retest or the begining of a real bull trend and possibly from a lower level. In September the sideways to up in the USD should end as well. It may have to do with Merkel becoming less dogmatic with her austerity obsession after being reelected. Just my present thoughts. Price rules as always.

-tria

gold has an 8.6 yr cycle . it can divide into 1/3rds or in 1/2 . it looked to me like the 34 month lows @1520s was going to play out. taking that out puts the 4.25 1/2 cycle in play. it is due to bottom any time up until august. this is the dominant cycle in play now. it exerted and expressed itself . of course these conspiracy theories are interesting and could very much prove to be valid. my job is to still make money. so, i go by cycle analysis.
i am a gann trader and the 60 yr cycle, when gann used it as prominent and the 54 yr cycle in wheat, back in his day, that was the life of span of human beings. today i still think its relevant. i dont know what october holds, these long term cycles are not exact. so i dont know what october holds maybe a wave 2 low. the dominant cycle in gold has been the 21-22 month peak to peak up cycle . it is due to top in the june/july window. i sill believe that will be the case. dharma sometimes these cycles invert! yes, that can be the case. its why we have to pay attention to the market and not be dogmatic. gann used so many indicators to reach his conclusions, he was a big proponent of astrology as well.
dharma
from the 1620 highs we have , to my counting 7 waves down. of course i have experienced way too many times, 9 doesnt happen. i dont feel pressed and i am in no hurry. i do think however, that the miners come out of this like they did in 08 =Vstyle. remember in 08-09 there was a 25% up day!

[dharma]

hgnsi remains @-36=7.5 market vane 41% bulls. correction is serving its purpose got up to 1425 this am and the market will have none of that crushed it back to 1400. lots of volatility. the pattern off the lows @this point , and its way too early to tell is not impressive. did some very light buying yesterday, my focus is the miners. 1325 is a death zone for that cycle and we popped up to the next price cycle. todays cot may give some clues. if it shows the commercials increased their short position . watch out dharma

[Lemming]

Dougie,

Eric Hadik in a free email, suggested a late April to very early May as a potential low in Gold, then a June high and then a more important low in Ocober.

An October low ties in with the Gann crowds 60 year low, I believe.
https://dl.dropboxus.....p 1953-54.jpg

Personally I am not sure if the April/early May or the October low will be the more important one. The October low may mean a retest or the begining of a real bull trend and possibly from a lower level. In September the sideways to up in the USD should end as well. It may have to do with Merkel becoming less dogmatic with her austerity obsession after being reelected. Just my present thoughts. Price rules as always.

-tria

tria,

Armstrong's bearish reversal being elected here at the close. Deploying to GLL now.

-Lemming

[Lemming]

Dougie,

Eric Hadik in a free email, suggested a late April to very early May as a potential low in Gold, then a June high and then a more important low in Ocober.

An October low ties in with the Gann crowds 60 year low, I believe.
https://dl.dropboxus.....p 1953-54.jpg

Personally I am not sure if the April/early May or the October low will be the more important one. The October low may mean a retest or the begining of a real bull trend and possibly from a lower level. In September the sideways to up in the USD should end as well. It may have to do with Merkel becoming less dogmatic with her austerity obsession after being reelected. Just my present thoughts. Price rules as always.

-tria

tria,

Armstrong's bearish reversal being elected here at the close. Deploying to GLL now.

-Lemming

Ouch. Gold recovered just above the resistance, so position is off again.

-Lemming

[dharma]

the cots were interesting this weekend. i am taking it as the commercials are expecting another leg down. caution is warranted. i havent checked this out, but i am hearing that physical supply is tight or not available. if so, will physical demand out weigh the paper markets? in 80 when the exchange and the banksters had to deal w/the hunts corner on the market. the exchange changed the rules(this is fact, investigate it) only selling allowed no buying of contracts in silver. so dont put anything as an impossibility. they make the rules the pattern @this point does not look constructive, particularly in silver dharma

[dharma]

the cots were interesting this weekend. i am taking it as the commercials are expecting another leg down.
caution is warranted.
i havent checked this out, but i am hearing that physical supply is tight or not available.
if so, will physical demand out weigh the paper markets?
in 80 when the exchange and the banksters had to deal w/the hunts corner on the market. the exchange changed the rules(this is fact, investigate it) only
selling allowed no buying of contracts in silver. so dont put anything as an impossibility. they make the rules
the pattern @this point does not look constructive, particularly in silver
dharma

i was a crude oil broker . it is very easy for them to be short paper oil and very long physical oil. imo the cots are interesting, but another illusion.
price and time rule
1442 is the .382 from the 08 lows to the 11 highs . we came up to 1440 this am. there is alot of selling going on. should the market break above a certain # these shorts will be fodder.
dharma

[tomterrific14]

the cots were interesting this weekend. i am taking it as the commercials are expecting another leg down.
caution is warranted.
i havent checked this out, but i am hearing that physical supply is tight or not available.
if so, will physical demand out weigh the paper markets?
in 80 when the exchange and the banksters had to deal w/the hunts corner on the market. the exchange changed the rules(this is fact, investigate it) only
selling allowed no buying of contracts in silver. so dont put anything as an impossibility. they make the rules
the pattern @this point does not look constructive, particularly in silver
dharma

i was a crude oil broker . it is very easy for them to be short paper oil and very long physical oil. imo the cots are interesting, but another illusion.
price and time rule
1442 is the .382 from the 08 lows to the 11 highs . we came up to 1440 this am. there is alot of selling going on. should the market break above a certain # these shorts will be fodder.
dharma

http://news.goldseek.../1366640855.php

[dharma]

i dont follow anyone, i do my own work and come to my own conclusions. that being said. gold has a 25 yr cycle , which divides into 3 and becomes an 8.5yr cycle. and that has been the structure of this bull , until now sometimes the 25 yr cycle divides into 2 and that is where i think we are now. i dont think the lows are in. there are no technical indicators to grab onto and say there exists a good possibility for a bottom here the market is oversold and working off an oversold condition. the pattern since the lows is also not encouraging to the bulls. i give a small % chance that the lows are in- i dont want to be closed to that idea. but it is not my preferred outcome. there are lots of technical s&r points that point to the 1200s . i also want to see divergences occur. as they did in 08. i dont think the bull has ended. this is a similar situation to 75-76. waiting for indications that the low is in. dharma