131 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

i dont follow anyone, i do my own work and come to my own conclusions.
that being said. gold has a 25 yr cycle , which divides into 3 and becomes an 8.5yr cycle.
and that has been the structure of this bull , until now
sometimes the 25 yr cycle divides into 2 and that is where i think we are now.
i dont think the lows are in. there are no technical indicators to grab onto and say there exists a good possibility for a bottom here
the market is oversold and working off an oversold condition. the pattern since the lows is also not encouraging to the bulls.
i give a small % chance that the lows are in- i dont want to be closed to that idea. but it is not my preferred outcome.
there are lots of technical s&r points that point to the 1200s . i also want to see divergences occur. as they did in 08.
i dont think the bull has ended. this is a similar situation to 75-76. waiting for indications that the low is in.
dharma

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&i=p52203877695&a=259871922&r=1366738948262.png

Maybe we need to see ADX approach the levels seen in 1998 and 1999 lows?

stubaby

[dharma]

hmmmmmmmmmmm
http://www.kitco.com...0130423DeC.html
dharma

[dharma]

hmmmmmmmmmmm
http://www.kitco.com...0130423DeC.html
dharma

[dharma]

i see no indications of a bottom. there are no technical indications. the pattern off the lows , unless it morphs into something else, does not look constructive. market sentiment is @extremes.there is now a huge short position in the market. i dont know what the truth is on physical supply? but what i do know is the 4.25 yr cycle is in play. its influence extends until sept/early oct. price is in the upper range of a bottom, but unsupported by any technical indicator, other than the market got oversold dharma

[dougie]

he has more different calls than carter pills

Dougie,

Eric Hadik in a free email, suggested a late April to very early May as a potential low in Gold, then a June high and then a more important low in Ocober.

An October low ties in with the Gann crowds 60 year low, I believe.
https://dl.dropboxus.....p 1953-54.jpg

Personally I am not sure if the April/early May or the October low will be the more important one. The October low may mean a retest or the begining of a real bull trend and possibly from a lower level. In September the sideways to up in the USD should end as well. It may have to do with Merkel becoming less dogmatic with her austerity obsession after being reelected. Just my present thoughts. Price rules as always.

-tria

[dharma]

the market goes up , the board goes silent. today is options expiration. its also the full moon. tomorrow is the lunar eclipse. we are way oversold on the hourly charts. i show stiff resistance gld 145-147. gdx around 34. looking more and more like an island bottom forming. the fed may not be doing enough-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-25/fed-debate-moves-from-tapering-to-extending-bond-buying.html i dont think the boj, fed, and later ecb will be going anywhere, if anything they will be more involved w/larger injections. all the reasons i put on this position are still in place. in fact they have gotten worse. i am not trading this market, waiting for wave 5 to begin, if it hasnt already dharma

[stubaby]

the market goes up , the board goes silent. today is options expiration. its also the full moon. tomorrow is the lunar eclipse. we are way oversold on the hourly charts. i show stiff resistance gld 145-147. gdx around 34. looking more and more like an island bottom forming.
the fed may not be doing enough-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-25/fed-debate-moves-from-tapering-to-extending-bond-buying.html
i dont think the boj, fed, and later ecb will be going anywhere, if anything they will be more involved w/larger injections.
all the reasons i put on this position are still in place. in fact they have gotten worse. i am not trading this market, waiting for wave 5 to begin, if it hasnt already
dharma

dharma:

Nice up-thrust off of the climactic lows for HUI. Looks like "another bear flag" to my eyes however. It's "into the gap" now, but not clear whether it will close it now or later. My EW says Minute Wave iv of 5 of C topping (so far its 3 Waves) or nearly so with Wave v just ahead (below 276 again is warning & below 271 is confirmation).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p01931722420&a=298316016&r=1366984234517.png

Question is IF we enter Wave v now will we make new lows - will it subdivide yet again - will there be divergences verses wave iii (my guess is yes).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p89602654637&a=292895588&r=6570.png

Should be an interesting couple of weeks ahead.


stubaby

[dharma]

could very well be stu yesterday the full moon and eclipse looking for a turn today, could be a/the top nothing proven so far. sure they hit gold. fundamentals could nt be brighter, hitting gold has not changed a thing above 1550 the ball is in the bulls court in here. place your bets?!?!? volatiity has widened the parameters of the game. going to make it more and more difficult. i had done some light buying, now i am waiting to see what the reaction to the rally brings. i will be buying that reaction. if my parameters are in play . divergences next up wave 5, which will be the big one . dharma

[dougie]

why does 271 confrim?

the market goes up , the board goes silent. today is options expiration. its also the full moon. tomorrow is the lunar eclipse. we are way oversold on the hourly charts. i show stiff resistance gld 145-147. gdx around 34. looking more and more like an island bottom forming.
the fed may not be doing enough-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-25/fed-debate-moves-from-tapering-to-extending-bond-buying.html
i dont think the boj, fed, and later ecb will be going anywhere, if anything they will be more involved w/larger injections.
all the reasons i put on this position are still in place. in fact they have gotten worse. i am not trading this market, waiting for wave 5 to begin, if it hasnt already
dharma

dharma:

Nice up-thrust off of the climactic lows for HUI. Looks like "another bear flag" to my eyes however. It's "into the gap" now, but not clear whether it will close it now or later. My EW says Minute Wave iv of 5 of C topping (so far its 3 Waves) or nearly so with Wave v just ahead (below 276 again is warning & below 271 is confirmation).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p01931722420&a=298316016&r=1366984234517.png

Question is IF we enter Wave v now will we make new lows - will it subdivide yet again - will there be divergences verses wave iii (my guess is yes).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p89602654637&a=292895588&r=6570.png

Should be an interesting couple of weeks ahead.


stubaby

[stubaby]

why does 271 confrim?

the market goes up , the board goes silent. today is options expiration. its also the full moon. tomorrow is the lunar eclipse. we are way oversold on the hourly charts. i show stiff resistance gld 145-147. gdx around 34. looking more and more like an island bottom forming.
the fed may not be doing enough-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-25/fed-debate-moves-from-tapering-to-extending-bond-buying.html
i dont think the boj, fed, and later ecb will be going anywhere, if anything they will be more involved w/larger injections.
all the reasons i put on this position are still in place. in fact they have gotten worse. i am not trading this market, waiting for wave 5 to begin, if it hasnt already
dharma

dharma:

Nice up-thrust off of the climactic lows for HUI. Looks like "another bear flag" to my eyes however. It's "into the gap" now, but not clear whether it will close it now or later. My EW says Minute Wave iv of 5 of C topping (so far its 3 Waves) or nearly so with Wave v just ahead (below 276 again is warning & below 271 is confirmation).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p01931722420&a=298316016&r=1366984234517.png



stubaby

dougie:

Because that's the last "possible" Wave 1 of a 5-Wave count - otherwise if we complete 5 waves it "could" be 1 or a and as of today's close that's still alive and well.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&i=p84949022686&a=259871924&r=197.png


stubaby