97 replies to this topic

[dharma]

by the way, the cot continues to give bullish readings
http://www.321gold.c...llan061713.html
dharma

[dharma]

its all in the wording of the fed. the fed is trapped in hotel california. its simple they leave, we tank. forget about what they say, watch only what they do. and frankly, i dont think in the end it matters. gold is still in a down trend/ the bottoming process is obviously not complete. there is no real proof the bottom is in. we are still in the seasonal weak time of year. around the fed date, the gold market has consistently been taken to the wood shed. today/tomorrow should be no different dharma

[dharma]

well the fed has come and gone, no surprise as to the statement. they have been saying this for the last couple of months. if you are looking for the fed , they are stuck in hotel california. the key is the bonds. the bull in bonds ends, and its game on, and like all bulls this one too will end some of the mining indexes and many miners are displaying an inverse H&s pattern. to be valid the pattern has to be activated. to do so,it has to get over the neck line. we will see if these patterns activate. the hgnsi dropped to -16 which indicates letter writers are buying and are less bearish dharma

[dharma]

so, the bottoming process will begin anew. there is more capitulation in todays action. if it is to complete we need to see a week or so of coughing up. so far today gold/silver made new lows,. gdx no new lows as of yet. watch what the fed does, forget about what they say. i have done some light buyng @ the last lows. i will be buying more , but not yet dharma

[dharma]

the 21-22 month cycle has been a prevalent cycle in gold . the last time it expressed itself was either 8or 9 of 11 . so the cycle this time is inverting and the lows can come now any time. i show 1245 as a probability. w/1155 below that . dharma

[dharma]

hgnsi =-36.7 market vane=38% well the indian government has now made it official. no more imports of gold allowed. of course this has happened in the past. and smuggling grew what this does is remove, temporarily , the buy side of the equation this is the stuff bottoms are made of apparently more capitulation is necessary dharma

[Lemming]

Tria, Your cycle may not have been too far off after all. Martin Armstrong's latest support level as of this afternoon is $1270.30, and looks to be climbing about $4.40 or so a day. Of course, we could base quite awhile here. His Economic Confidence Model has an intermediate peak on August 8th, an intermediate bottom in September 2014, and the peak of the current 8.6 year cycle on October 1, 2015. -Lemming

[tria]

Tria,

Your cycle may not have been too far off after all. Martin Armstrong's latest support level as of this afternoon is $1270.30, and looks to be climbing about $4.40 or so a day.

Of course, we could base quite awhile here. His Economic Confidence Model has an intermediate peak on August 8th, an intermediate bottom in September 2014, and the peak of the current 8.6 year cycle on October 1, 2015.

-Lemming

Lemming, never mind the 25-week cycle low which as you know very well is not mine but Parker's observation. I'll give it one more week to see if it has still any influence and then I'll forget it, like Terry Laundry's S&P ringing cycle that suddenly dissapeared. The earliest I expect some strength on Gold is next week, not this one IMO.

On another note and since you I think you are a rancher , I read this that you may find interesting or just BS talk.

The world is approaching Peak Meat, producing 7 times more than in 1950
http://qz.com/93900/...-and-the-earth/

-tria

[dharma]

i have several thoughts running through my brain:
the cots are rapidly moving towards the commercials( "the smart money") working towards being net long. the last time that happened was november 2001.
the main cycle for gold is the 8.6 year cycle . it divides into thirds and 1/2 . the 1/2 cycle lows are due any time now. this obviously wll be a significant low
andrew maguire continues to report little physical changes hands @the lows, and the paper market shows big volume @ these lows
we are in the seasonal weak time of year
the other day the indian government made it illegal to bring gold into india. this has happened before, when i 1st went to india that was in effect then in 1980. of course smuggling gold into india was rampant. i suspect that will happen again and premiums will exist
i have several significant dates in july. i suspect the lows will be seen in july,, a slight possibility is the lows have occurred. but i am not betting that way
looking for divergences to develop -oscillators and inter market.
welcome to 76 . note after a 50% haircut, when the market turned there was no base building , it turned and just worked higher. it may again be like that. the sentiment is so extreme here and now by the time the lows occur, it will even be more lopsided http://www.chartsrus...d/GC1976btm.gif
dharma

[dharma]

looks to me like this bear will burn out from exhaustion
i see calls for lower #s are cropping up
here is a tlt chart of the 20year bond http://www.graceland...013jun26tl1.png
i have no arguments w/anyone. we will see what the next couple of years bring
you got to love it when guys forecast far into the future and yet they brag of not holding positions overnight. so, its all academic!
i said awhile back its the bears turn and they will get loud. my battle is w/the market
dharma