97 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

looks to me like this bear will burn out from exhaustion
i see calls for lower #s are cropping up
here is a tlt chart of the 20year bond http://www.graceland...013jun26tl1.png
i have no arguments w/anyone. we will see what the next couple of years bring
you got to love it when guys forecast far into the future and yet they brag of not holding positions overnight. so, its all academic!
i said awhile back its the bears turn and they will get loud. my battle is w/the market
dharma

The longer the bulls "hang-on" (aka Jim Sinclair and many many others) the longer this decline will last, IMHO. Sort of like "death by a thousand cuts", with several "mini-capitulations", then stabilization or small recoveries, followed by another "mini-capitulation". WASH-RINSE-REPEAT! This too will end, but a GRAND washout and final capitulation is needed, i.e., when GOLD and SILVER have a big down move and diverge, while the miners move higher - not seeing it yet!


stubaby

[dharma]

looks to me like this bear will burn out from exhaustion
i see calls for lower #s are cropping up
here is a tlt chart of the 20year bond http://www.graceland...013jun26tl1.png
i have no arguments w/anyone. we will see what the next couple of years bring
you got to love it when guys forecast far into the future and yet they brag of not holding positions overnight. so, its all academic!
i said awhile back its the bears turn and they will get loud. my battle is w/the market
dharma

The longer the bulls "hang-on" (aka Jim Sinclair and many many others) the longer this decline will last, IMHO. Sort of like "death by a thousand cuts", with several "mini-capitulations", then stabilization or small recoveries, followed by another "mini-capitulation". WASH-RINSE-REPEAT! This too will end, but a GRAND washout and final capitulation is needed, i.e., when GOLD and SILVER have a big down move and diverge, while the miners move higher - not seeing it yet!


stubaby

stu, sure seems to me that is what the last 2years have been about. sure looks like we have had several capitulation days in the last week alone. not to mention many others over that time span
dharma

[stubaby]

looks to me like this bear will burn out from exhaustion
i see calls for lower #s are cropping up
here is a tlt chart of the 20year bond http://www.graceland...013jun26tl1.png
i have no arguments w/anyone. we will see what the next couple of years bring
you got to love it when guys forecast far into the future and yet they brag of not holding positions overnight. so, its all academic!
i said awhile back its the bears turn and they will get loud. my battle is w/the market
dharma

The longer the bulls "hang-on" (aka Jim Sinclair and many many others) the longer this decline will last, IMHO. Sort of like "death by a thousand cuts", with several "mini-capitulations", then stabilization or small recoveries, followed by another "mini-capitulation". WASH-RINSE-REPEAT! This too will end, but a GRAND washout and final capitulation is needed, i.e., when GOLD and SILVER have a big down move and diverge, while the miners move higher - not seeing it yet!


stubaby

stu, sure seems to me that is what the last 2years have been about. sure looks like we have had several capitulation days in the last week alone. not to mention many others over that time span
dharma

Capitulation 2008 vs today:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&i=p63187956334&a=307226643&r=721.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&st=2007-04-26&en=2008-10-27&i=p12534610847&a=307226741&r=48.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=0&i=p83945430624&a=271242504&r=784.png

[senorBS]

i will keep is simple, weekly silver RSI lower than any time in past 30 plus years, can it go lower? si it can in a collapse mode like this, but if you want extreme you got it BSing away Senor

[dharma]

markets are made of different opinions! 2008 in my book was a wave 2 and yet gold only corrected 34% and finished the year having made a higher high than the previous year. normally wave 2s correct @least .618 sept 11 was the high , since then i believe this is a wave 4. it too has corrected 34% like the 75-76 bear in gold it has corrected 21 months (75-76 was a 50% decline and lasted 20 months-http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1976btm.gif notice on the chart, the market bottomed and took off to the upside there was no repairing, no time spent in sideways action . over the next 3.5 years it went up 8.5x now talking about the miners is where it gets compelling. the miner/gold prices have made lower lows than in 06 and gold is approx 400 higher. this is where the real beating has occurred. looking @ the price of the metals themselves do not tell the complete story. and like senor says above, the oscillators and sentiment are @ extreme readings @ some point in 01 perhaps a broker was caught on the wrong side of the rise in gold. so the bank of england and fed helped to push gold prices back down. fast forward to april 13 goldman made a call for lower lower gold prices and voila its what occurred. and i suspect that tomorrows cot will show the commercials net long gold. the price declined and they managed to reverse their huge short position and get long! hmmm on boards that i frequent and here the debate about the top in 80 gold rages. volker had no political opposition @ the time and he kept raising rates. but the fed was still behind the curve. inflation was on the ascent. also @ the time ,the public was allured into the metals to trade w/ the big boys the hunts. the hunts owned placid oil among other holdings and one of their companies had discovered oil in iran. bunker and family believed in silver. they effectively had a corner in the silver market. the exchange members along w/their buddies , the commercials were the big shorts. well jan 21st 80 the exchange changed the rules only selling of silver contracts were allowed, no buying. well guess what happened next. i have no doubt that volker would have kept wringing out the economy. it effectively got rid of inflation and caused the broads to go on a 20+ year rise. but, it wasnt rising rates that squelched the metals. it was changing the rules. the commercials are or will be net long the metals. for the next run. and when they return to short, when the market goes against them and they cant stand the heat. watch out. we will see if the legions of east asians can stem their time. will it be different this time? 31/2 years or so will tell! dharma

[dharma]

hgnsi=-43.3% market vane =35 new lows dharma

[stubaby]

Let's see how we finish today, but Silver diverging from Gold (although both are down) and HUI diverging from both with a positive print. stubaby

[wxman]

possible ewave for gold
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...amp;a=307258772

[stubaby]

possible ewave for gold
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...amp;a=307258772

Nice Balance and a good look! Thanks for sharing!


stubaby

[dharma]

as usual nice work wxman
i just love all the bearshness. it will continue until the highs are broken
todays cot will be interesting
i expect the commercials to be net long in a big way
i bought this am
listen, no one can tell you definitely this ends the correction. but it sure looks and feels like it
the april lows didnt have enough time to get complete distribution. add these lows to the picture
and you have a complete capitulation.
i have 3 time bands for the metals this month starting w july 1-3
july was the month i had slated . lets see today is a good start
75-76 lows notice the V coming out of the 50% haircut.
http://www.chartsrus...d/GC1976btm.gif
dharma