97 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

as usual nice work wxman
i just love all the bearshness. it will continue until the highs are broken
todays cot will be interesting
i expect the commercials to be net long in a big way
i bought this am
listen, no one can tell you definitely this ends the correction. but it sure looks and feels like it
the april lows didnt have enough time to get complete distribution. add these lows to the picture
and you have a complete capitulation.
i have 3 time bands for the metals this month starting w july 1-3
july was the month i had slated . lets see today is a good start
75-76 lows notice the V coming out of the 50% haircut.
http://www.chartsrus...d/GC1976btm.gif
dharma

si amigo, can't at all be sure this was the finale bottom, but many indicators hitting extremes of past 20-30-40 years, a bueno trade at least methinks

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

friday was the highest volume day for gdx -ever!!!!!!! 75 million shares while this is a welcome rally , one cant be sure, @this point that the low is in. i do think the lows come in july if fridays 1179 was not the low. there is enough fear of the long side in the market sentiment is @ extremes the large specs cut longs and added to their shorts commercials added to longs and cut shorts the fed is in hotel california if you are listening to them they are trapped. forget about what they say, watch what they do! ben is now a lame duck dharma

[wxman]

gold corrected to wave 2 of the first extended part of the 5th wave:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...amp;a=307258772

[tria]

A rather strong week for Gold should be this one. -tria

[Echo]

Amigos,

Something interesting Fib wise I have not seen mentioned for Spot Silver.

The 2008 low was 8.40 and the 2011 high was 49.82. The 76.4% retrace is 18.16. The low on Friday was 18.17 before the greater than 7.6% reversal off those lows. Very interesting at least near term.

Doc
Link for SC members

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&i=p58535823126&a=299122963&r=1372644408879.png

[dharma]

the truth is investing and trading are 2 different animals. i read and subscribed to richard russell in the 80s , until the crash of 87 . he wrote a piece back then called rich man poor man. it pretty much explains the whole ball of wax. you can rummage around his site and read it. the truth is valuations on miners have come way in. in that sector blood is running in the streets. so to a trader its important to wait for the lows buy and sell on overbought . to an investor, its a whole different ball of wax. the bear in miners has been brutal. many explorers wont make it. several big miners have announced delayed plans and shuttering of some mines temporarily. the price of gold has gotten below production costs. so when the sector does finally turn up , there will be less supply, and so it goes. we will find out soon enough if the lows are in. personally i think the evidence is favoring that scenario. armstrongs long term calls are brilliant. his model is uncanny. it was his short term calls which got him into trouble , back when dharma canada is closed today, its their Independence day

Edited by dharma, 01 July 2013 - 10:30 AM.

[dharma]

the bearishness is quite thick. we remain @ extremes here in sentiment the market has fallen to technical support and the day of the bottom reversal saw the largest volume in gdx ever! lots of evidence of a bottom. along w/lots of disbelief of the bottom. watching crude,crude and gold/silver tend to lead commodities crude above 103 wti , breaks out of the pennant. lots of money finding its way into the dollar one by one money is finding its way into past bastions of false money. it was the bonds, stocks, and the dollar. how secure can the dollar be when they can and do print more of them watching the middle east. dharma

[dharma]

not monetary, but geopolitical pressures are front and center today. egypt has the worlds attention and as a result wti is up 1.5 . above 103 wti and we break out of the larger pennant my view is this the 60yr cycle bottomed in 53 . the 40 yr cycle in 73 w/bretton woods. here we are in mid 13 the 60 yr cycle bottomed in oct 53 both of these cycles will hold market sway any time now. of course there is a huge price for arriving early. however, kick off can begin any time now. of course the trading graveyards are filled w/traders who were early. seems to me the best course of action is to wait for wave 2, @ least a higher low will give you some parameters to place a position. the situation in gold can be quite explosive. the small and large specs are net short. they are considered dumb money. the commercials have wored their way close to net long. lots of discontent world wide. the grains are still in the dumps as is sugar and other softs. i dont yet see a commodities bull market. we are getting in position. but we are not there yet! japan is the biggest problem. and all is quiet on that front dharma

Edited by dharma, 03 July 2013 - 11:03 AM.

[dharma]

still not sure relatively speaking the miners are holding up . and yet, @these gold prices many mines are losing $$$ . sentiment still @ extremes , metals remain oversold. my next date is the 17th then the 26-29. if the 28 of june wasnt the lows, then i have been thinking the lows come this month. marty remains bearish w/ his date being aug 7th-http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/31/august-7th-ecm/ dharma

[dharma]

i have to look @the banksters in complete awe. they were able to decrease their enormous short positions working their way to net long and have the market fall simultaneously. all the while, the media collaborates to get the public working to their persuasion. masterful! and it is done on fridays, so their net position doesnt show until the following weeks cot. i do think the longs have to be in despair, then @the least , we will have a short covering rally. out of the blue it will occur and keep in mind this occurs while dubai has been told to not sell gold to iran. and the indian gmen make it illegal to buy gold, taking the worlds biggest buyers out of the game. of course smuggling is next up for that part of the world dharma