28 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

This market is at serious risk for the first time in a long, long while. We now have the one type of thing that can kill it and that's uncertainty at the Fed. What do your indicators say? PAY ATTENTION TO THEM AGAIN. I know that Sells were about as useful as teats on a boar hog for the past 2 years. I think we all need to have some stops in place and some triggers to protect assets. This is a major change in market character. If you don't believe it, watch to see how the trade changes today and during the week. Mark

[Rogerdodger]

Voltaire observed: http://www.traders-t...mp;hl=armstrong

And don't forget Bradley:

Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 June 2013 - 08:20 AM.

[Harapa]

Last night "Momentum Meter" dipped to sell zone.
http://harapainvesti...ntum-meter.html

[SemiBizz]

It's already shown up in the technicals

A word of caution...

OK so I do have some concerns. We have seen violent moves in global markets and not just in Japan. The Shanghai Index fell from a May 31 close of 2300 down to a low of 2126 on Thursday 6/13 and is close to 10% off it's highs. The KOSPI in Korea is just under 10% off it's high. The Hang Seng Index is nearly 3000 pts off it's high at Thursday's low. The Australian AORD is MORE THAN 10% off it's 5/15 high. Brazil's Bovespa BVSP Index is DOWN MORE THAN 10%. The FTSE Index is down almost 10% from it's 5/22 high. The German DAX about 8% DOWN from it's 5/22 high. I could go on here, but you get the picture.

I showed you charts like this one I will repost that shows the flow into the Swiss Franc (CHF). In the crude forecast, I pointed out that crude is trading like a currency here, and not a commodity, as the fundamentals are weak yet price and volume are rising.

This week is OPEX week, and multi-witching triple or quadruple, something like that. So we can still see some volatility especially on this light volume, but with this expiry coming up and some annual rebalancing due, we will see some volume with an expected very strong volume on Friday. It may still need to be proven it was "sell and go away" here in the US, but looking at the global picture there is absolutely no doubt about it, and the flight to safety seems to be in full gear.

Do not let down your guard

[TechMan]

We now have the one type of thing that can kill it and that's uncertainty at the Fed.

This is nothing new. The market's been aware of something like this for a while now.

http://www.foxbusine...for-third-term/

[dasein]

I think it is amazing really - the smart guys get aware of something in the market but the market acts unaware - then somewhere down the road the market reacts - the really smart guys like Mark can see the difference and dont change their market posture til the market decides to change using some awareness it has had for a while as the supposed trigger - so maybe awareness is the trigger for smart guys to mark up or mark down in the opposite direction, into what will later become a change of direction?

[PrintFaster]

Everybody and their brother is scared to death of the Fed tomorrow.

That is why the VIX has been climbing along with SPY the last few weeks.

However, retail and consumer discretionary sector investors are not the least bit worried, XRT and XLY still pinned at record highs.

Hands down, the most incredible runs ever recorded.

A lifetime worth of gains in just over 4 years.

XRT

XLY

Edited by PrintFaster, 18 June 2013 - 08:36 AM.

[PrintFaster]

Crashing gold, silver, palladium, and platinum prices must mean zero inflation for the next 20 years. No wonder we are experiencing stock market nirvana. Just look at the horrific beating food prices are taking. No wonder restaurant stocks are soaring. Names like SBUX hitting fresh record highs today. [attachment=21095:dba0618.png]

[zoropb]

Mark since your sharing... we have a triple cluster working of targets including the big dude when it shows up its usually trend reversal time in 90% of the cases. 1642-52.50 with heavy weighted 1645.25 to 48.50. Its zone is satisfied at 1644.50+. I suggested to our members just in case do not mess with the long side up here close to the zone. This week is our 7th from weekly signal the nasty week . The last two times we have tracked this way this week was not good for bulls by eow. I would be very cautious bullish here in this zone. I suggest stand aside and ease up on drinking the bullarade for a bit until its safer. 90% stats are tuff to overcome but some may be on the "its different this time trade plan" and no stat or reasoning will help. I rather not find out with my money or our members.

[zoropb]

The only risk in standing aside if your bullish is from this zone to 72 and save your self a potential 70-200 to the downside not a bad trade-off.