173 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

if HUI goes below 216.40 I will exit remaining longs BSing away Senor

[dougie]

looks like GDX wants to go here

[senorBS]

looks like GDX wants to go here

and even with big hit in NEM today, miners are actually acting quite well, noting clear pattern wise but a lot of bears and very few bulls. and even the few bulls are cautious or out or looking lower

Senor

[dharma]

have a good listen to jim grant http://www.zerohedge...-will-end-badly
tapering is causing issues in emerging markets. it is causing currency issues as well as liquidity issues. grab your popcorn, it could get ugly. try as they may, the broads remain under pressure. some of these emerging markets are coming apart @ the seams. and the high # of unemployed youths is still fairly silent. govts pass laws now to make it illegal for folks to assemble. all the while the 1% grabs up more and more
i am about 50/50 on the low is in debate. i can see an event happening which pushes the gold market to new lows. , which hopefully causes divergences. my time frame is march and it could stretch out till may. no trading positions @this time. i went flat.
the miners are drawing alot of money. sinclair told me way back when, the big money buys the miners 1st. this has not escaped former jpm employees http://www.bloomberg...ining-fund.html
its a waiting game. i feel very strongly, based on what i saw in 11 and back in 80 and again in real estate and in 2k in the nasdaq. bull markets end in a frenzy. 11 was a small taste of that. i believe in elliott terms we are in wave 2 w/wave 3 on tap. its requiring alot of patience. unfortunately for most, it is requiring deep deep pockets.
dharma

[senorBS]

have a good listen to jim grant http://www.zerohedge...-will-end-badly
tapering is causing issues in emerging markets. it is causing currency issues as well as liquidity issues. grab your popcorn, it could get ugly. try as they may, the broads remain under pressure. some of these emerging markets are coming apart @ the seams. and the high # of unemployed youths is still fairly silent. govts pass laws now to make it illegal for folks to assemble. all the while the 1% grabs up more and more
i am about 50/50 on the low is in debate. i can see an event happening which pushes the gold market to new lows. , which hopefully causes divergences. my time frame is march and it could stretch out till may. no trading positions @this time. i went flat.
the miners are drawing alot of money. sinclair told me way back when, the big money buys the miners 1st. this has not escaped former jpm employees http://www.bloomberg...ining-fund.html
its a waiting game. i feel very strongly, based on what i saw in 11 and back in 80 and again in real estate and in 2k in the nasdaq. bull markets end in a frenzy. 11 was a small taste of that. i believe in elliott terms we are in wave 2 w/wave 3 on tap. its requiring alot of patience. unfortunately for most, it is requiring deep deep pockets.
dharma

well said amigo. I just read the recent "SKI" report (free abbreviated online version) and as expected per his system the USERX and other miner indices went briefly above but so far are trading around or may back off from their "92-96 day prices averages. I believe his system "could" deliver a big buy signal here with a further pullback and then decisive move above the 92-96 day prices area. Silver not far from new daily and weekly "closing" lows. I am also now flat, thinking prices could pullback at least to HUI 210-213 area.

Senor

[jabat]

Dharma, Eric Hadik was expecting multi year low for Gold in 4Q13 and it appears to be taken hold. He is bullish for 3-6 months period.

[dougie]

Dharma,
Eric Hadik was expecting multi year low for Gold in 4Q13 and it appears to be taken hold. He is bullish for 3-6 months period.

he has been on quite a run lately. when his system works, it is impressive to say the least. I dont know about the ability to profit from it though and as far as i know he doesnt track results

[dharma]

yes, it appears to be hadiks position hgnsi =-23.3% market vanes bullish consensus=39% nem , one of the majors was taken to the broncos shed and received a 10% haircut on friday. the other miners held up quite well. the fact is that majors @ some point will have to make acquisitions to keep their level of production up. this was not lost on gg as it made a hostile offer for osisko. @some point in the future that will be a frenzy of buying up of explorers. the fact is , its cheaper to buy up exploration companies, then to start the search for a viable mine from scratch that cycle will commence w/the return of the bull. right here , right now. the market needs to prove the lows are in. i think february is a pivotal month. venus went direct on friday, and today, so far, we are in rally mode. on the 6th mercury goes retrograde. my experience w/that is be real clear in what you say, especially in relationships the indian elections are coming up in april. i think this is quite significant. they buy in tons per month when there are no restraints. . much debate on the tariffs and the ban on gold . of course if the iran deal gets pushed through , it could lower the price of crude oil , which would alleviate their trade balance payments. its difficult for me to see gold prices resume their upward climb, w/o the largest physical buyer in the world dharma

[johngeorge]

Regards HUI shorter term Master Data says the trend is up in both the daily and weekly

HUI Weekly Chart
Hui Statistics

[dougie]

lets see if NEM catches a bid here: i like the chart