173 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

doing some miner buying this morning Senor

[dharma]

it seems to me the sell off in the broad market , will set up renewed monetary stimulus @ some point down the road. w/the extreme level of bullishness seen before years end, i think there is more pain in store. this will set up the metals bull. i think there will be a flood of money into the broad market, as hot money seeks a safer home. we are in the beginnings of the change here. the bottoming process in gold is reflecting that. its not to say there is no chance for new lows. i think there is a chance for that to happen. that will bring real disgust to the sector. the volume coming into the miners suggests to me the miners are under accumulation and their lows are probably in dharma

Edited by dharma, 03 February 2014 - 12:02 PM.

[dharma]

this is week 6 from the 12/31 lows, i look for this week to mark a significant low , then a good rally. the trin on the broad market was over 3 yesterday, an indication of short term oversold. i look for this to be a spring for a rally in the broads to establish a lower high, then a larger beating.
a few weeks back i read a piece by l summers, he is calling for negative rates. if it were to happen , it would be a kick for the gold market. also the tariffs on gold and ban on imports in india has put the largest buyer in the world on the shelf , w/the elections in april, i look for these to get relaxed, in the hope their population forgets about what happened before the elections. modi , gold friendly is currently the leader in the poles. if elected he says he will do away w/the tariffs. we shall see. i will do some buying on weakness this week. miners continue to hold up well. yesterday was a drubbing of the broads, and the miners gave up little ground. the realization that the fed is trapped in hotel california, is going to dawn on folks over 14
dharma
could be a fire
http://www.hindustan...e1-1179566.aspx

Edited by dharma, 04 February 2014 - 11:17 AM.

[dharma]

ery volatile this am
keep in mind china is still on holiday. 1 mo gofo in backwardation , indicating demand is strong
1261 is resistance and so far this am there is a battle. seems to me lots of folks are looking for
new lows. here is the gann guy http://www.ganngloba...52e97f92d3d3c4b
dharma

[senorBS]

ery volatile this am
keep in mind china is still on holiday. 1 mo gofo in backwardation , indicating demand is strong
1261 is resistance and so far this am there is a battle. seems to me lots of folks are looking for
new lows. here is the gann guy http://www.ganngloba...52e97f92d3d3c4b
dharma

I listened to that and it was good and could easily play out as he suggests, but what really struck me was that he like IMO the big majority of others is looking for ONE MORE NEW LOW, I will reiterate that IMO that seems to be the majority opinion of the public and analysts, even of long term bulls. And of course we could easily go to new lows as there has been no decisive rally. However given that bearish sentiment has been at extremes for at least 2-3 MONTHS now with basically sideways price action one could suggest the "capitulation stage" this time is the long grinding nature of this bottom and the surprise is that final lows are in place - this is a fascinating juncture. Personally I am about 20% long here in the miners and will most likely just hold and look to add if we do see a final gold/silver washout.

PUREBS

Senor

[dougie]

healthy looking pullback in metals here

[dharma]

ery volatile this am
keep in mind china is still on holiday. 1 mo gofo in backwardation , indicating demand is strong
1261 is resistance and so far this am there is a battle. seems to me lots of folks are looking for
new lows. here is the gann guy http://www.ganngloba...52e97f92d3d3c4b
dharma

I listened to that and it was good and could easily play out as he suggests, but what really struck me was that he like IMO the big majority of others is looking for ONE MORE NEW LOW, I will reiterate that IMO that seems to be the majority opinion of the public and analysts, even of long term bulls. And of course we could easily go to new lows as there has been no decisive rally. However given that bearish sentiment has been at extremes for at least 2-3 MONTHS now with basically sideways price action one could suggest the "capitulation stage" this time is the long grinding nature of this bottom and the surprise is that final lows are in place - this is a fascinating juncture. Personally I am about 20% long here in the miners and will most likely just hold and look to add if we do see a final gold/silver washout.

PUREBS
of course we dont know, but that is my feeling as well. usually the market has these guys chase. tomorrow mercury goes retrograde. i am looking for a low and take off between now and the 10th. this bear has been gut wrenching, sent many bugs to the poor house. have to remain open minded, but i am leaning towards the lows being in. this california drought , reminds me what i read of the great depression and the dust bowls. i have been stocking up on stuff. food is going to get expensive. the charts of the ags are looking like they too are putting in bottoms. any one have any ideas for water stocks? not a sector that i have ever followed. it is the most abundant resource on the earth.
dharma

Senor

[johngeorge]

Very important stuff that water A few ETF's for water at Yahoo: LINK

[dharma]

this solution by italys central bank is eye opening . http://www.zerohedge...ank-bailout-yet i guess they feel its all make believe anyway?!?!
this is what happens w/fiat its a ship w/o a sail creative accounting????!!!!
it does look like a bottom, but i am not buying into 100% , but i have established trading positions. in this high flying sector there are many stocks that are offering value, the companies are well financed, and their captains have experience to guide their ships through these turbulent waters. if you dont want to do research , there are many possibilities , such as cef which sells @ a discount. and you have the added benefit of having your money in canada.
we are in a very short term window for weakness, and from an intermediate term basis is also in a period of weakness. if new lows are to occur it could be over the next 3 months. certainly , the psychology in the market is supportive of higher prices. i expect there will be a contingent that will short the market all the way to the highs.
dharma

gary wagner did this yesterday. https://esignal.adob...p;pbMode=normal

[dharma]

anyone notice that big banks across the globe are getting out of the commodity biz?!?!
today ends the chinese new year holiday.
today is jobs report. do the #s mean anything anymore?!?! which are real and which are creatively presented.
i dont have answers
its all a yawn. seems to me all but hadik are waiting for another shoe to drop in this market even the gann guy
http://www.ganngloba...8d831ef90b808ae i love his historical perspective. his analysis is another story. of course w/his line of reasoning double bottoms would never happen , the big boys would always run the stops.
india is still on the shelf. take the largest buyer out of the equation and lets see what happens. will modi win. if he doe will he live????
japan , abe is bent on inflation. he makes no bones about it. they want inflation, of course just a little. the question is can they create cost push inflation. as the 3rd largest economy in the world, can they produce cost push inflation? money velocity is still falling or bottoming. its certainly not rocking . those guys expecting hyperinflation any minute are in fantasy land. money velocity needs to @least turn up 1st
so many questions . so many bears. the market is range bound . and yet the miners look like they have potential to rock to the upside
dharma

Edited by dharma, 07 February 2014 - 10:30 AM.