165 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

One more new low in Gold, and preferably today, is the worst case scenario short term. Got all of my fills in Gold but nothing in Silver. I want it near 19+/-10c.

boom! gold and GLD just eked out a marginal new low below April lows, so far HUI/GDX diverging nicely, now if bullish we should see gold start to rally nicely off this area and the miners lead the way higher - very critical juncture. If we instead fail badly and decline sharply here it could be very negative

BSing away

Senor

muy bueno "miner" action so far with HUI moving norte of 222 and making new session highs and above yesterday's high as well, I wanna see a good close, uno step at a time

BSing away

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 22 April 2014 - 01:18 PM.

[senorBS]

short term rallies so far in gold/silver are clearly corrective looking so far, new decline lows would not surprise me and I think we would likely see the miners diverge again, their rally patterns look potentially bullish, my dos centavos Senor

[dharma]

short term rallies so far in gold/silver are clearly corrective looking so far, new decline lows would not surprise me and I think we would likely see the miners diverge again, their rally patterns look potentially bullish, my dos centavos

Senor

i am not sure if the abc on the chart is all of the correction or only A. options expiration is tomorrow, so there will be distortion until that ends. and the winners will be.........
mars goes direct on may 20th , which usually (very high correlation to gold having a change of trend) . i keep coming back to may as a monthof change of trend.
we are not that far away now. it seems it all gets sorted out by then. while the market does have some footing it is iffy. the russian sanctions have me wondering why do that? when saddam hussein and khadafy move made moves to challenge the dollar in some way, their demise came shortly thereafter. might the russian sanctions have something to do w/that. gold seems to be the ground on which the change will come. china is a very heavy buyer. and russia is even more clandestine so who knows. . my feeling is to be very careful here. i threw my nibbles back. and will await for the mud to clarify. my guess is , having gone below the 1287 pivot, that there could be more downside.
dharma

[dharma]

i found these 2 to be relevant
http://kingworldnews...yrocketing.html

http://kingworldnews...es_To_Gold.html

dharma

[senorBS]

short term rallies so far in gold/silver are clearly corrective looking so far, new decline lows would not surprise me and I think we would likely see the miners diverge again, their rally patterns look potentially bullish, my dos centavos

Senor

i am not sure if the abc on the chart is all of the correction or only A. options expiration is tomorrow, so there will be distortion until that ends. and the winners will be.........
mars goes direct on may 20th , which usually (very high correlation to gold having a change of trend) . i keep coming back to may as a monthof change of trend.
we are not that far away now. it seems it all gets sorted out by then. while the market does have some footing it is iffy. the russian sanctions have me wondering why do that? when saddam hussein and khadafy move made moves to challenge the dollar in some way, their demise came shortly thereafter. might the russian sanctions have something to do w/that. gold seems to be the ground on which the change will come. china is a very heavy buyer. and russia is even more clandestine so who knows. . my feeling is to be very careful here. i threw my nibbles back. and will await for the mud to clarify. my guess is , having gone below the 1287 pivot, that there could be more downside.
dharma

for me the marginal new miner lows (this Monday) just briefly below the .618's were critical as is the fact we have bounced nicely "so far", we clearly have possible large ABC DAILY declines now complete and right shoulders of large H&S patterns too, along with daily technical divergences and extreme bearish sentiment. That of course guarantees nada but if this miner rally continues (GDX now back above 24!) we will start getting some initial bullish confirmation IMO. Frankly I love how the action this month has so many either very bearish or simply out of the long side. By the way GDX just hit (24.13) the highest level since Monday, April 14, and just look at all the bearishness we created with what in reality was a small down move (a grind) to basically test recent lows. as always uno day at a time but I am encouraged so far

BSing away

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 23 April 2014 - 10:57 AM.

[dharma]

yes, i agree the backdrop for the metals looks great. long term and short term. i have stepped aside from new purchases here to see who wins the battle tomorrow. its options expiration. i am a buyer if there is softness
this out of india http://www.mineweb.c.../...8&sn=Detail
then this comes out. so you think the recovery is sustainable as they taper away ?http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303380004579519431631415734?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303380004579519431631415734.html%3Fmg%3Did-wsj&fpid=2%2C7%2C121%2C122%2C201%2C401%2C641%2C1009
housing is a main cog in the wheel -145% housing starts is a big #
patience is required. but this is going to bear big fruit
dharma

[senorBS]

with the new gold/silver lows that "final" set up of a higher GDX/miner low is now possibly staring us in the face also watching silver closely as it is already over 35 cents above the 18.95 low and only down 12-13 centavos BSing away Senor

[tria]

with the new gold/silver lows that "final" set up of a higher GDX/miner low is now possibly staring us in the face

also watching silver closely as it is already over 35 cents above the 18.95 low and only down 12-13 centavos

BSing away

Senor

Needless to say I got my Silver fills today.
“Careful what you wish, you may regret it” they say.
Time to go fishing till early May.

-tria

PS
Congrats are due to the precious metals futures OPEX 'Boys', expiring today, who manipulated the opening so they could close their naked short puts.

[dharma]

with the new gold/silver lows that "final" set up of a higher GDX/miner low is now possibly staring us in the face

also watching silver closely as it is already over 35 cents above the 18.95 low and only down 12-13 centavos

BSing away

Senor

Needless to say I got my Silver fills today.
“Careful what you wish, you may regret it” they say.
Time to go fishing till early May.

-tria

PS
Congrats are due to the precious metals futures OPEX 'Boys', expiring today, who manipulated the opening so they could close their naked short puts.

yes, lots of games in the markets
gofo still in backwardation. this may be the longest period in time that this has occurred. what it indicates to me is supply in the real physical market is tight. the last time this occurred was the august rally.
i do have dates in may that indicate a pullback before a larger rally takes place.
war markets are unstable.
after all the efforts to end the cold war, now we are back into it. in the end what it means is more money spent on weapons and their development
patience , and this sector will go from the most despised to the most loved. such is the nature of markets.
its going to take time, but it will happen
i read a piece on mine web -more gold has been smuggled into india in the last few months , then the last 10years.
dharma
Though it sounds incredulous, investigators have come across enough evidence to indicate that Chinese gangs are hiring operators in other countries and smuggling gold into Hyderabad, Kerala and other Indian cities," ' - Kalyan Revella, Assistant Commissioner, Customs and Central Excise, India - Mineweb News, Apr 23, 2014.
but added that more gold has been smuggled into India in the past four months than in the previous 10 years." - Mineweb News, Apr 22, 2014.

so official figures on gold imports to india are distorted

Edited by dharma, 24 April 2014 - 10:35 AM.

[dharma]

the lows that occurred were in the normal time band for cycle lows. if these lows break, then i think mars going direct on the 20th will halt the decline. if these lows hold , then a normal cycle bottom has occurred. senor has pointed out all of the ear marks of a normal market bottom eg. sentiment bearsish, oscillators oversold and or diverging, and the weak hands throwing in the towel. all of these have been seen . the market feels so heavy. stops below the lows on a closing basis i do think wave 2 will occur in may, of course if the lows are taken out , then i look for mars direct to halt the decline dharma keep in mind because of the long decline, and the low gold prices other than oskff , majors have put off their acquisition phase, that will come on a rebound in prices.