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EBOLA: the worst Black Swan ever?


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 09:59 AM

This really has the potential to be very disruptive to the world-wide economy.
Imagine the effect on travel or... enemies sending carriers across an open border.
I don't know if it's related to this or the sick economy but we have been getting fire-sale offers from Carnival Cruises.
The fear alone could have a chilling effect on all travel.

Death toll from Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone hits 729

UPDATE: Plane Carrying American Ebola Patient En Route to USA...

Trump warns: Keep them out...

Airports On Alert To Look For Symptoms...

Feds to test vaccine on humans...

WHO warn virus could spread to other countries; 'Catastrophic' loss of life...

African states seal off outbreak epicentre...

Europe and Asia on alert...

Largest health emergency drill in history in NYC...

Medications dispensed; Bioterror Response...

100+ health workers infected...

More than 100 health workers have been infected by the viral disease, which has no known cure, including two American medics working for charity Samaritan's Purse. More than half of those have died, among them Sierra Leone's leading doctor in the fight against Ebola, Sheik Umar Khan, a national hero.
"We're very worried, now that our leader has died from the same disease we've been fighting," said Jenneh, who asked for her real name not to be used. "Two of my very close nursing friends have also been killed ... I feel like quitting the profession this minute."


Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 August 2014 - 10:11 AM.


#2 orange

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 11:26 AM

Lol @ Trump. That guy has filed for bankruptcy so many times. I have no idea how he still makes money. <_< If you catch Ebola it will likely kill you, but it's only spread through contact. As long as that remains the case, It is likely to remain an African disease where healthcare is poor.

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#3 Russ

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 11:31 AM

Lol @ Trump. That guy has filed for bankruptcy so many times. I have no idea how he still makes money. <_<

If you catch Ebola it will likely kill you, but it's only spread through contact. As long as that remains the case, It is likely to remain an African disease where healthcare is poor.



It only takes one infected person to bring it overseas...then there goes the neighbourhood.
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#4 kssmibotm

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 11:56 AM

The media loves to blow stuff like this out of proportion. Remember SARS? Just be a germaphobe like Howie Mandel, and refuse to shake hands or make physical contact with strangers. No worries. KMB

People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.

#5 arbman

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 12:45 PM

You guys should play Plague Inc on i-pad... :D

http://www.ndemiccre...n/22-plague-inc

#6 Bernie

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 01:41 PM

Lol @ Trump. That guy has filed for bankruptcy so many times. I have no idea how he still makes money. <_<

If you catch Ebola it will likely kill you, but it's only spread through contact. As long as that remains the case, It is likely to remain an African disease where healthcare is poor.



It only takes one infected person to bring it overseas...then there goes the neighbourhood.



They are bringing two cases into the states right now... Scary... could be the black swan event

Edited by Bernie, 02 August 2014 - 01:42 PM.


#7 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 03:07 PM

One of the dead is a doctor who wore a full haz-mat suit.
Symptoms typically start two days to three weeks after contracting the virus, with a fever, throat and muscle pains, and headaches. I understand that those infected at first think they only have the flu, and are likely to expose others for a few weeks.
Typically nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea follow, along with decreased functioning of the liver and kidneys. At this point, some people begin to have problems with bleeding.

No worries, it's only spread through contact.

Then why this?:
www.cdc.gov

Alert Level 3 (Avoid Nonessential Travel; updated 7-31-2014) CDC urges all US residents to avoid nonessential travel to Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia because of an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola.


But even if the fear is totally unwarranted, the effect can still be problematic.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 August 2014 - 03:09 PM.


#8 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 03:56 PM

I see where this is "trending" in the news today:

American physician infected with Ebola virus arrives in U.S.

Officials have been working to prevent any public fears of Ebola spreading among the U.S. population, and at a news conference Friday, Dr. Bruce Ribner, an infectious disease specialist who oversees Emory’s isolation ward, said the precautions being taken virtually guaranteed there would be no secondary infections from Ebola in this country.


As Chief Martin Brody said in the movie JAWS: "You're gonna need a bigger boat." :o

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 August 2014 - 04:01 PM.


#9 pedro

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 03:57 PM

"QUOTE No worries, it's only spread through (people to people?) contact."

According to this source, that's not true. The virus can stay alive and infectious on various surfaces for extended periods of time -- days even, and infect people who then come into contact with those surfaces.

http://www.naturalne...us_disease.html

#10 pdx5

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 05:27 PM

Lol @ Trump. That guy has filed for bankruptcy so many times. I have no idea how he still makes money. <_<


Trump has the best golf resorts on earth, period!
I wish I could visit one every year. No other week long vacation even comes
close to that experience for golfers like me.

As for ebola virus, it is primarily staying in North West Africa right now.
But if it spreads to any country in Europe or America's it will be a catastrophic
event. Jet travel what it is today, carriers of disease from Africa could easily
travel to other places without symptoms. From what I am reading, ebola
spreads easier than sars or chicken pox. And much more lethal.

Edited by pdx5, 02 August 2014 - 05:35 PM.

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