144 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

over the last 2 weeks the commercials changed their positions by 100k that is massive
gold new lows
silver not
miners not
positive divergences @ this point
divergences also developing in the oscillators
will the fed have to punt on raising rates.?
will jaitley lower the gold tariffs?
why the big change for the commercials
relentless downward pressure day after day for weeks now
dharma

HUI closing low for this huge bear is 104.74 (13.04 GDX), we are just below that at this time in the HUI. There were quite a few daily closes between 104.74 and 105.50

Senor

[dharma]

the last time gold made new 52 week lows w/o silver and the mining indexes not following was early 2001 and that led to a 10 year bull market dharma maybe its different this time?

[dharma]

in the forecaster, front row center was larry edelson. i dont subscribe to marty, but i read him every day. i appreciate his perspectives.
anyway here is edelsons predictions and road map for gold http://www.moneyandm...380/chart1l.jpg
notice he has the lows the day before the bradley 11/25
there are 2 strategies that i see: there are more but these are the 2 that make the most sense
forecasting doesnt make /lose money
1 if one has done his/l;;/ homework and has determined that a particular miner is undervalued then its a good time to buy
2 wait for a higher low and then buy. gann felt this is the safest time to buy
all of my purchases are in the black, the miners have been beaten beyond financial sense, which doesnt mean they cant go lower -emotions play a big role
all the oscillators i watch are oversold, no surprise the gold market is down nearly every day
today is the fed minutes. i dont know what new information they will provide , but the market is fixated on them. @different times the market is gripped by some factor or other. remember when it was granville on balance volume, he sent the market in a short term tizzy back in the 80s
if you want to get some good info about a miner , i have found this to be a great reasource http://www.denvergol...st-live-stream/
dharma

[dharma]

well the fed minutes came and went, there were no surprises. and amid all the weakness the commercials have dramatically changed their position. i expect more of the same on next fridays cot. after all the market was down almost every day dharma

[johngeorge]

I was buying today as I think a rally is coming soon. AG, CHPGF, SPOXF, PVG. This is NOT investment advice. Do your own Due Diligence.

Daily GDX Chart
Daily GDXJ Chart

[senorBS]

I was buying today as I think a rally is coming soon. AG, CHPGF, SPOXF, PVG. This is NOT investment advice. Do your own Due Diligence.

Daily GDX Chart
Daily GDXJ Chart

me too, added a little more

Senor

[senorBS]

Bueno morning and follow through so far, sustain this move above 14.10-14.20 in GDX and odds increase a final low (for a decent while) is likely in place. Technicals are ripe for at least a good sized several day to couple week bounce at least IMO, we see BSing away Senor

[dharma]

senor , that is the question, isnt it ? was this the final low?
for now i buy weakness and sell the rally . then wait for the selloff.
this low is different however, and i am waiting to see what the consequences of this low will be
gold hit a new 52 week low yesterday, which actually was a new 4+yr low
miners and silver did not confirm the new low in gold. this is a very bullish positive divergence.
the last time this happened was 2001. which then produced a 10yr bull move
today will cause a stochs cross and turn up from oversold (using 14,7,7 stochs)
the 3 measures of sentiment have been scraping their lows or thereabouts
other than the wingnuts a kwn most gold advisers are bearish in the short term
so , we wait and see, we need to reverse the trend by making higher highs
the last high did not turn eric bullish but turned neutral on gold . last i heard from him he was expecting a november low
this was the 1st bradley w/11/26 producing the 2nd bradley
miners lead is a good sign.
this out of china http://gracelandupda...nov19china1.png
dharma

[dharma]

sentiment from yesterday HGNSI unchanged at -30% again MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus rose a point to 30% the DSI rose 3 points to 18% dharma

[dougie]

Big 3 or c now followed by deep 4 or 5 of 5?down