104 replies to this topic

[dharma]

commercials 200k net short gold

http://news.goldseek.../1457728364.php

not that big for a bull market

dharma

[dougie]

yep quiet market

I am partially hedged here which means it should go higher.

 

Wouldnt it be something if it didnt let us back in?

[dharma]

remains quiet around here. 

the boj meets tomorrow

and the fed on wednesday, currie and team bankster have pounded the table on gold below 1k , and they added if rates are raised its a sure thing! 

well most of europe is experiencing negative rates, which throttles the argument , it costs money to hold gold.  w/bank bail ins as law, it seems bank accounts w/nirp or zirp are not that safe, so gold is an inexpensive hedge

the big tell for me is indian jewelers are entering their 11th day of strike , this has taken the 1st or 2nd largest buyer in the world off stream. and the commercials have shorted the market . they know all to well this is a big opportunity to take the short side. so far it seems india has imported 5 tons in march ,no where near previous months.march seasonally is not a favorable month for gold http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html

in asia chris wood has recommended 50% gold 20% miners http://gracelandupda...r14pension1.png

i sold some , i am off margin and in a comfortable position. i will wait for a buy or sell on strength.  while over the last 21/2 months i have brought out the changing character of the market, it doesnt mean i am blind to the possibility of new lows. if it happens i am a buyer, if not , then i continue w/my strategy. this rally is different than 14 or 15. late april is a turn and june is also a turn.  merrimans analysis is posted on the previous page

the banksters were this short in 04 and the market rose for 4 more years.  its not wise to bet against the commercials . but in bulls they tend to carry larger short positions. they are pretty much always short

dharma

[dougie]

IMO new lows are not on deck
Deep 2 possibly

[dharma]

not what i am looking for, but i am open to it happening, not a high priority for me though

these are not #s indicative of a top, but ....................

 HGNSI was unchanged at 40%.

MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell a point to 52%,

DSI fell 12 points to 66%.

dharma

right now what i am watching is gld took out its last low

gdx has not, as of now. miners lead

Edited by dharma, 14 March 2016 - 01:36 PM.

[dharma]

what i love about markets is all those that missed the bottom in december , now think they can catch this upcoming bottom, which hadik thinks is coming in april. i have pointing to the jewelers strike in india. which is the largest gold buyer on the planet . -indian gold bar imports in february lowest on record 23mt, down 61% from the previous month-, if the strike continues march will be a very low import month. on the positive side negative interest rates in japan and many countries in europe  are attracting buyers to gold,  

the market looks toppy here, yesterday saw an over 1% draw down in gld holdings. which is usually an alert for a bounce.  the fed holds the cards  lets see what tomorrow holds 

lots of wild cards in april the 19th is when the sge is supposed to begin its gold contract

1213 is the last price cycle 1229 begins the next higher price cycle

i have funds and am waiting to add to miners. i have several on my list

dharma

[johngeorge]

Thanks dharma

 

I too have a list of stocks, but, it needs more honing,  Plenty of time to do that IMO.  Lots of dry powder for buying when the time comes.  Meanwhile I continue to hold my small position in DUST and may add to it when I think it is appropriate.  Sold my position in PVG for a small profit before it was slammed down.  Looking to buy when it turns back up.

 

Best to you.

 

[dougie]

I know I just don't think it will be that easy here
Either we don't correct much or we get slammed way hard

[dharma]

yes, and what i am thinking is we make a handle on that big cup on the gold chart.  most of the gurus missed the december low. the chant was" one more low below 1k and then we get on board".  well buying lows is never easy, there are many voices in your ear. chasing is easier to buy , and i suspect that is what happens

sentiment

 HGNSI fell 6.7 points to 33.3%

. MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell 2 points to 50%

 DSI fell 11 points to 55 which puts this indicator where gold was @1150 

these #s to my eyes dont look like lopsided #s seen at tops.

its all to pat to easy. well bulls are never easy to get on. and this young bull is 

going to be no different

i sold 1 stock and i am looking to buy, not yet but very soon

dharma

Edited by dharma, 15 March 2016 - 02:27 PM.

[dharma]

the gold market has definitely changed.  however, i dont want to out and out call it a bull yet. i am not entirely convinced that new lows are not in our future. i dont think it likely, but it is in the realm of possibility.  today, janet takes center stage.  it is obvious to all who are paying attention the fed is trapped.   they will not be able to leave the market.  none of the measures they have enacted allow the economy to stand on its own . its why we have 0 interest rates, in spite of the huge government borrowing.  so , what will she do in march. 

all the talk of  not raising rates? kuroda and draghi have instituted  fairly aggressive policies and their currencies have rallied! huh!not what they intended to happen. 

the oscillators have moved from overbought to about 50 an area where rallies can occur.  yesterday in spite of the gold market being down the gld had a build!

me, i will wait  india is on the shelf . march is seasonally a weak month.  mid april seems the time for the correction to end

i am positioned, but there are miners i want to add. that look like takeover candidates. majors will need to buy @ some point

dharma