97 replies to this topic

[dharma]

the truth of the matter is this. the mind finds reasons to get off the bull.  firday was a record short position for the commercials.  they are now at least 60 underwater.  the dollar went up , gold does the opposite of the dollar.  armstrong has been calling for gold below 1k  so has harry dent. does the market care. the money is made riding the bull . we are only 6months into bullish action.  hadik has not called the market correctly since april, where he sold 1/2 his position. the hardest thing is to ride a bull market. it climbs a wall of worry.  all kinds of people say  all kinds of things. do they make their money trading, or do they make their money. by selling services.  volatility  will only increase as the price goes higher. if maund  is scared of the commercial short position now, what will he be when price goes higher. 

from where i sit the price that miners have sold out or been taken out so far , in most cases is less than 100 oz. for proven probable reserves. can they correct . sure they can. its a market. most of those were selling for moose pasture 6 months ago.  when you have diamonds and you sell them for spinach. you havent done your homework.   

 i am looking for a top soon.  hvent sold anything but margin so far. . but will the correction break 1200 , how many now see the writing on the wall did you listen to yellen??? did u read bulliards paper?   when cuba for example got taken out by castro .  the money fled before castro came, its always the case. that is why when nations become socialist /communist the money flees and whats left keeps everyone poor at the breast of .......

.we are early in the game it has 4-6 years of bull . the money has already spotted the end. soros(who i dont know when to believe or not) adn druckenmiller have been singing golds song( now druckenmiller has made 30% a year for 25yrs. 

now i started in 78, excuse me i am old, so i repeat myself. in  79  every time i sold, i had to buy back at a higher price. well dharma you are just not a good trader. ok , maybe so. try your hand at it. tell me how you do in 4-6 yrs from now

dharma

[dharma]

the commercials"smart money" larige specs "dumb money"  commercials remain short during a bull , while the dumb money remain long during the bull market.  the smart money has its day at tops.  ever wonder why the labeling is that way

i want to see gold work towards 1400 thus making the whole area below 1320 a base  and thus i think would greatly reduce the odds of new lows. 

the brexit w/the dollar gaining strength will cause lower rates and maybe qe which will cause the next leg up in the metals. 

i am watching the 29th, mars goes direct changing direction, thus could cause a change in trend in gold. .   mars does remain in scorpio till july 11 . the other date is the bradley  which is july 4th  i will be selling , dont know when and dont know what %. another concern is if the broad market crashes , it might cause margin calls, exerting pressure on the miners. 

holding and waiting

dharma

[dharma]

doing some light selling

dharma

[dharma]

the past has shown when the gold/gdx  heads up in favor gold, it is not good for sector. the action indicates to me that we are about to start correcting, it seems to me the highs have been seen for this leg

dharma

[dougie]

i did some light selling today.

Should be good to run <:

[dougie]

one reason we may have turned last Friday

[johngeorge]

"i am watching the 29th, mars goes direct changing direction, thus could cause a change in trend in gold. .   mars does remain in scorpio till july 11 . the other date is the bradley  which is july 4th  i will be selling , dont know when and dont know what %. another concern is if the broad market crashes , it might cause margin calls, exerting pressure on the miners."

 

Today I got a short term sell signal on GDX and $GOLD.  We are close to the Bradley turn date and your astrology take would appear to add impetus to lower prices.  I did not do any selling today, but, will be looking to sell tomorrow and Friday. Perhaps we get a short rally before the drop.  However, as of now, the dollar is stronger against the yen which, IMO, adds to the sell pot.  Getting vellly interesting!

[dougie]

silver hourly looks OK imo

[dharma]

27ish is big resistance for gdx 1336 is horizontal resistance for gold, this is the area in 13 when impossibly the trap door opened as chidambaram instituted the 80/20 rule.  and the 10% tax.   these areas will fall, of course the question is will we correct 1st, and that is my leaning.   the monsoon in india has soaked about 80% of the country and it is moving to soak the remainder of the country.   so by sometime in august the indians will be back in the market. i am reading the chinese are back nibbling.  i am not looking for new lows, but you never know.  if you look at the wheat chart w/in the last few days.  wheat has made new lows, creating a bull trap, getting the bears to sell at the lows. so, i think at this point one has to prepare for all eventualities. i think the chances are very remote. but , not out of the question.  my guess is i will be buying into oversold w/divergences whatever the price.  but we will see when we are there.   i  am not totally objective, my bent is bullish.   and the seasonal charts are bottoming in july http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html

dharma 

[dharma]

@ around 6pm tonight mt mars goes direct.

silver is almost at friday brexit highs

this rally could extend into next week  , of course anything can happen.

i felt it prudent to cut some positions. and i will cut more . i cut all margin  sometime this month, and now i am cutting to have cash. i do see a buying opportunity either in aug/oct i will wait no matter what the time for that to develop

i have been studying the gold chart of 40yrs ago.  hadik talks about the 40yr cycle and 2 i traded through the end of that cycle. so its in my mind.  i also expect the conditions of that time to be fairly similar to the present bull ie. i am looking for stagflation.  this time there is not volker at the fed and interest rates will lag the conditions. and monetary policy will consider the very weak economic climate

the initial rally so far is about the same in % terms as it was then.  wave 2 retraced less than .382 of  1 . 77 was a much bigger appreciation of price than 76  where the gold price had been cut in 1/2 of course that was an 8.6 yr cycle and this is 3x that or 25.4 yrs. so the correction took much longer in the present scope.  time will become more compressed as we move forward.  the economic backdrop is lugging around a mountain of debt

once the stagflation starts to express itself , it will become obvious that miners are the place to be.  druckenmiller has an outstanding track record. if he is vocal  i will be listening

dharma