today might be like bill murray in Groundhog Day, waking up and , "something is different. Different is good." for us, it might be the end of an inexorable move up, at least for more than 20 minutes. so far bulls have reclaimed 2 points; not bad, but I think it won't work this time, but i dropped back to 32% short. will add back at -5 if we get there.
My trading plan right now
Started by
lawdog
, Jan 15 2017 09:33 AM
711 replies to this topic
#202
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 09:53 AM
come on bulls, bring it back a bit more so i can get a fill on my limit order. bulls are not doing well. i will be patient. at least i have a decent short on. no harm in waiting. if the mkt is going down there is plenty of time to increase the short position.
#203
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 09:59 AM
.01 from my buy limit. got it. back up to 40%. bulls feeling good about themselves again, and why not?
#204
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 10:20 AM
last friday the spx got to -7, rallied into 10:20 to -3, then sold back down to -6 at 11:25 then rallied from there without looking back. i will be comparing today with last friday. that day worked for me because the market felt light and so i was able to close my shorts near the lows and ride a small position up. maybe today will be similar, but my bias is against it. the bounce has failed. but i really would like to get back to -10 spx by 10:30, which looks doubtful.
#205
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 10:26 AM
i read it has been 92 trading days since a decline in spx of 1% or more in one day. maybe that string gets broken, but it won't happen today.
#206
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 10:46 AM
just printed hod. it's still groundhog day.
#207
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 11:06 AM
i am so weary of this. down less than 4 now.
#208
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 11:34 AM
last friday, mkt double- bottomed at 11:20. today at near the same time, it put in new hod. does that mean mkt is even stronger? maybe, but if we can't continue higher, as we did last week from 11:20, that may be a difference which leads to a different remainder of this friday than last. probably reading too much into it, but that is one thing i am watching for today. naz looks vulnerable.
#209
lawdog
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Posted 24 February 2017 - 03:48 PM
that was waste of a nice gap opening. hate it when I lose everything I gained at the open. we'll see what the indicators say for next week. this market is going to eventually squeeze out the last bear and then everyone will get rich as it continues to advance. my bias is showing. Will try to be objective over the weekend and accept my failings. spx just went positive. ha. in the end we did almost exactly as last Friday. but this time I didn't take advantage of it. maybe take a breather next week, but i'm not going to cover right now.will hold the shorts.
#210
lawdog
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Posted 25 February 2017 - 11:20 AM
Still believe market is likely to drop here, so plan on retaining 40% short. If market rallies a bit but indicators are still negative, may even add to short position. How much upside can I take before throwing in the towel? We will see. If market rallies, say 10-12 points, Dow up another 100, but analysis still says a drop is coming, I will probably cut my short in half and then hold for the turn. If I turned tail and ran every time my initial purchases, whether long or short, resulted in some early losses, I would have seldom had any successful trades. as I stated before, we usually need to "pay" for our position with some early losses. I will accept that as long as the reasons for shorting are not fully negated. But a market running against me will cause me to cut back my position. This is not a perfect setup for a short by any means, but I think the early evidence is there for the turn. The prior Friday I went into the day short and was able to close my shorts on early weakness, then go long, expecting only a rally that day, then a drop the next week after President's Day. I made some decent money on the Friday 2/17 recovery, then made some money on the Tuesday advance. My analysis last weekend changed my mind to remain bullish, which I did until Wednesday. My analysis so far this weekend suggests that I stay short.
But so much of successful trading is being reactive and not proactive. You make a call on a change in direction and start positioning yourself; that's being proactive. But as the market plays out later, if it goes against you and perhaps many of the reasons for taking the position start to become nullified or not so convincing, then you reduce or close out your position; that's being reactive. I attribute 1/3 of my success to being reactive at opportune times. We fool ourselves into thinking the reason for our profits is that our analysis was correct and that is why we are making money. In truth, we are often just fortunate to be on the right side. After all, it's either up or down. I am not as smart as I might sometimes think I am when I am making money.
