711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

down to 40% short. I don't have a good feeling about this decline being worth much. 

[lawdog]

32% short

[lawdog]

Interesting article posted by NAV about mom and pop fueling this recent rally. That certainly sounds like the kiss of death. Wonder what the sky-watcher's response would be. In any event, you still have to trade properly and this doesn't mean it's straight down from here. If mom and dad rallied it this high, they can add some more, but risk reward is not good for the bulls. It will still be tricky to make money, but when it starts to roll on the downside, don't bravely dive in to save it; oversold becomes more oversold once a decline takes hold. I have only 32% short here; my greed wants me to increase that, but I feel there may be a strong day or two left before we get more than a day or two down.

 

You talk about mom and pop with disdain, and I have an anecdote that supports this. My dad was a smart guy, but not so much with the stock market. He was very conservative, so never bought much in the way of stocks, although when he did, he made money, but that was rare. But he was a fixed income guy and did well with that in a day when yields were dropping and bond prices were skyrocketing. But I knew the stock market party was over when in I believe March of 2000 he said he was thinking of buying stocks. Well, I knew that he would be the last one in, so it was a pretty good tell for the market's future, and the rest is history. So mom and pop may not be the best market timers and I think that article NaV posted is very significant. with that said, I think I will get back to 40% short!

[lawdog]

so with the gap up, and at 35% short, this presents obvious problems. i don't want to watch the market open high and go higher, but i believe there is a chance the gap is near high of the day, so i will probably cut my short in half and see what transpires. my analysis said a rally day was likely and the market would need to prove itself. so i will be defensive and give it the chance to prove itself, then respond. my guess right now is to close shorts for a loss, 1/2 of position, then buy them back cheaper later in the day.

[lawdog]

i have a feeling this will not be a gap and go, so i will stand pat at the open. this gap up should bring out plenty of stock for sale. may add 10% to my short, taking me to 45% within 5 mins of open. 

[lawdog]

buying more short on open; positions at 50%. will not increase beyond this amount.

[lawdog]

generally trade spx; bot the naz100 2x short today; naz just seems more vulnerable. sfsg.

[lawdog]

in the movie, The Edge, Anthony Hopkins' character states that when people get lost in the wilderness, what kills them is shame for getting lost. in the market, sometimes we capitulate out of shame: I am wrong and so I deserve to suffer and lose. we are always going to be wrong, just don't let shame be your driving force. i am wrong now and have little chance of salvaging the day, but shame will not drive me. self-preservation will.

[lawdog]

surprised the adv/dec on nyse is only 2/1. does that mean weakness or does it mean buyers are restraining themselves with more advance to come?

[lawdog]

capitulation; sold down to 30% short. i would rather lose a little than a lot.