711 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

My RUT quotes are dead this morning...

[lawdog]

Don't go nuts, but I suggest looking hard at buying the dips here.

[SemiBizz]

It's too late, I'm already nuts...

 

 

Nah, I will maintain my present stance... patiently wait for that Nasdaq to test the high and measure it.

 

No interest in going long stocks...not here.

[lawdog]

Added to get to 50% long on further weakness to 2351 spx.

[tradesurfer]

Geez. Crude oil is PLUNGING today.

[lawdog]

I find current sentiment to be remarkably bearish for a market that is overall near highs across the board, from spx, to naz, to RUT, to DJIA. I don't always see the AAII (so-called mom and pop investor sentiment) as a fade, but the four week average is very low. Investors Intelligence has come quite far off its highs to a level that often precedes another leg up in an ongoing rally. Call/put ratios are remarkably skewed to the put side on all fronts. The only problem I see is that cash levels are low and margins usage is high. But in a tweet post I recently saw, it showed how margin is a problem generally when there is a very rapid rise, suggesting "mortgage the farm, Ma, we're goin' in" kind of mentality, which does not seem to be the case now/yet. 

 

The market action has been excellent this week. We got some good bottoming action last Thursday the 13th (admission: I did not think at the time last Thursday that it was over on the downside) with some comparatively high call/put and trin ratios. Then we had a good bounce Monday, followed by a weak bear effort on Tuesday, then a head fake rally then grind lower on Wednesday, then the rally for real on Thursday, and now some weakness to keep everyone off balance. In the end, I like what I see and definitely feel the market warrants a 50% long position. Glad there was weakness today to add to my position, create uncertainly, keep everyone off balance, and shore up the bull case with more negative sentiment. 

 

Monday mornings are always a concern, but that's just part of being in the markets. You can't escape risk if you want to make some money.

[lawdog]

I will take some more of that at spx -10; 55% long.

[tradesurfer]

market looks very very bearish right now.   dreaded h patterns all over the place, vix firming up, crude oil collapsing, bonds spiking higher, 

 

Three drives to the top pattern on the last 3 days price action in SPY

 

caution is advised !!!

[lawdog]

mkt back to -5 spx; sold down to 50% again.

[lawdog]

liking the action. take it down, get everyone beared up, then strengthen.