711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

getting close to yesterday's hod in spx at 2352. will 'they' turn it back?

[SemiBizz]

Nope... GS jumped the creek over resistance...

 

We'll get a pullback to retest 217.18 at some point here...

 

If they get carried away too far too fast to the upside here, we will probably get one more sizable pullback ahead of 4PM tomorrow....

 

Maybe a French election scare... VIX getting pounded, but not too hard so far.

[SemiBizz]

Nope... GS jumped the creek over resistance...

 

We'll get a pullback to retest 217.18 at some point here...

 

If they get carried away too far too fast to the upside here, we will probably get one more sizable pullback ahead of 4PM tomorrow....

 

Maybe a French election scare... VIX getting pounded, but not too hard so far.

 

 

217.18 BREAKS ON STRONGER 3 min VOLUME...

[lawdog]

Nice move today. Just thinking about yesterday and how the market wants to eat your lunch. Yesterday, April 19, the market opened up about 7 points, and I was holding near 60% short position, so that presented a problem because I was getting uneasy with the short position anyway. So I scaled out of the shorts at around the opening level of spx +6 on the opening, and was flat. Then things start shaping up so I take a nibble on the spx at about 2353, then buy more at 2349, and then market continues down as far as about 2343 I think, closing at 2345. So I'm a little depressed about the market going down on the day and having sold the shorts about 4 spx points from the high of the day, and then bought long on the way down, adding to my losses for the day. Fortunately I had the fortitude, based upon I think objective analysis, to add to my long positions this morning. But see how the market wants to put you out of your positions and cause you to lose both ways.

 

Sometimes I wonder if I would do better just making all my trades in the last 30 minutes. Maybe I will open an account and maintain that discipline of no trades until the last 30 minutes, and then compare results. In any event, today's bounce is impressive. We might just get that nice rally into May-June. Based on recent action, the market certainly got oversold enough to support a nice rally, but it will not be easy. I suspect if we get there that 2400 spx will be formidable resistance.

[SemiBizz]

SPX still 40 pts away from the high...

 

I can see a reason to test 2385, but not 2400.

[lawdog]

I will take you up on that one, Semi. But just a friendly wager, no money. (Who is it still trying to collect from GO on a bet?) We bet enough with our positions. The past two months, the market has underwhelmed me with its inability to follow through or get anything going, either up or down, so your (Semi's) 2385 could be hard to get through. That would be 30 more points up from here, which wouldn't be a bad trade, unless I hold for more and give it all back, which I have been known to do. Hate being at only 30% on a nice up day like today. Don't see any reason why we can't go higher from here. OPEX has its challenges, so I'm glad it is nearly behind us. My guess is we give some back sometime tomorrow, but still might end up to the plus side. The turn became evident to me mainly from the market action. It had enough opportunity to decline and did not do so, leaving a relatively oversold market (i.e. oversold in relation to what level of "oversoldness" has been sufficient to spark rallies recently) that had hardly gone down at all. My suspicion was it would be easier to go up than down; hence the long trade. Expect to hold long over weekend.

 

The technicals are sound for a continued rally, so I will be looking for lower risk ways of adding to my position, maybe add 10% more on any weakness tomorrow to 40%, then up to 50% next week. 

[SemiBizz]

Today was a day when our best instrument might just have been the calendar.

 

It's a monthly ritual isn't it?

 

So the deal is that the Nasdaq high came on volume.

 

Tomorrow we will have volume, if that is tested, it's likely to be another and higher high on stronger volume.

 

So it's also a quarterly deal, tax and investment implications here per calendar as well.

 

Now if it doesn't test it with MORE volume, that's a great setup.

[SemiBizz]

So Nasdaq is on a "test the highs" mission today...

 

What we have on SPX is 2 strong resistances.. R1 2366 and  R2 2386 (2385 and change).

 

For The RUT - immediately over head is R1 at 1388, R2 1394

[lawdog]

if we see spx up 10-15 points anytime during the day, i will probably take it and run, at least with most of my position, which remains at 30% long. doubt this will happen, however.

[lawdog]

added on opening weakness; 40% long.