216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

with indicators as stretched as they are, I will not be buying this dip; very good chance I will be cutting my exposure back. don't have many good reasons to stay long here other than momentum and the fact that we aren't overbought short-term, but we are very overbought on an intermediate and long term, so, as they do in playing blackjack, I will probably reduce my bet size due to lower chance of success here. if spx opens down less than 10 points, I will see that as fortunate, and a rally back to -5 spx points a place very tempting to close all longs for now. a bounce here could be a bull trap, so I am cautious. no need to be a hero here; better opportunities at making money will present themselves. 

[lawdog]

at this point it's just self-preservation and making an educated guess.  not too keen on bailing here at -24 spx, but may just need to do so. let's see what happens in the next 30 mins. no trades yet.

[lawdog]

look on the bright side: metals are up.

[lawdog]

contrary to prior post, decided to catch the falling knife: added 10% at spx 2374.

[lawdog]

took the 5 pt bounce; sold back down to 55% plus long metals. pigs get slaughtered, and other cliches.

[lawdog]

as for gold and silver, I know less about these than stock markets. in any event, the turnaround in the last week looks like it may have staying power and I would not be surprised to see the metals at least approach their recent highs.

[alexnewbee]

Admire your courage.
We had second Hindenburg recently in Nasdaq, fyi.

[lawdog]

purely technical traders might dismiss the decline today as news-driven, and no doubt the news is a catalyst, but it is possible that the reason the decline has taken hold is because the market is overbought in many ways, and the fact that it is not overbought on the short-term oscillators reflects the weakness of the breadth of the recent advance to new highs. this is why I am very concerned and cautious here. 

 

after the first hour, looks like we are near the lod's which is not encouraging as to today's prospects for a quick recovery. bad days can become really bad days and this might just be one of those.

 

Arms index on spx is about 1.3, so this is not massive liquidation going on (yet?). put call action isn't crazy, not sure what that means. my gut says lower lows today, but my experience with the current market is that there is a lot of money that wants in, and that should limit the carnage. we are back near lod's at 1:08 into the trading day, so i think -30 spx will print today.

[lawdog]

Admire your courage.
We had second Hindenburg recently in Nasdaq, fyi.

 

thanks for the info on hindenburg. don't know if i would call it courage.

[lawdog]

approaching -30; just might grab one of those falling knives.

 

took it at -30.