216 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

All about Nasdaq today... LD

[SemiBizz]

There's the support SPX 2385...

 

same old spot now for some time.

[lawdog]

Sold back down to 55% long. In such a tame market, you get a quick 6-7 points profit, may as well cash in. Still bullish, action seems okay. Amazing how the spx has been sold at 2400. When you think about it, the market has been pretty flat, aside from naz, since the spike above 2400 on March 1, so 2 1/2 months of really going nowhere, between 2328 and 2395 on a closing basis, if I recall correctly. One of these days we will get the breakout which sends us to 2450-2475 easily. We will just have to see if we can work higher before working lower. If it's going to correct back to 2360 on spx, I certainly don't want to ride that down. At present I don't see that as likely, but anything like that is always possible. So we remain vigilant, and take some day trade profits along the way, if we're lucky enough to grab a few.

[lawdog]

back up to 65% long, plus some silver etf which is acting well 

[lawdog]

Wish I had some great words of wisdom on the future of the markets but what do you do when the spx has stayed pretty much in a 15 pt range for almost 3 weeks? Eventually we will break out one way or the other. Obviously I believe the better chance for profits is to the upside, but I pay attention every day. Hope we can get it right here. NAZ certainly hasn't disappointed, and the silver etf is doing okay, but most of my position is in spx, so that's frustrating. 

[SemiBizz]

 

This is the hot spot...

[lawdog]

How much of your risk capital do you have in it and from what levels? I thought you were in SOXS, the leveraged inverse of Sox, last week and then, fortunately, closed that out before you left for Asia.

[lawdog]

i read somewhere that the faang stocks have $260 billion in market cap growth since, I believe it said, the March 1, and so the remaing 495 srocks in sp500 have lost that much market cap.. Maybe it was in someone's post here. not sure if all that computes properly, but the fact remains, the indexes are flat or up, but most of the stocks aren't. i think this is further supported by the value line arithmetic average. rut 2000 gives pretty much the same result; it's lower now than it was on dec. 8. 

 

breadth is an important factor for gauging the health of a market. this is definitely a warning flag. if breadth foes not improve, i think it suggests some kind of a pullback. 

 

put/call ratios changed a lot this week, going from a lot of skepticism to a fair amount of belief in the upside potential. Investors Intelligence has gotten very bullish again, which is an excellent indicator for a mkt that has exhausted its upside potential.

 

so it's going to be much more difficult making money for a while. I will be careful of holding large positions, and will be less apt to buy intraday dips. maybe a short setup will appear soon. sometime in the next 6 months I suspect we will be lower than we are now, but that's nothing to hang your hat on for making money.

[lawdog]

sold down to 55%. no reason other than belief that we are very near an important high, so want to reduce risk exposure

[lawdog]

the ff'er polls are showing growing bullishness among those who vote. this also is reflected in other sentiment measures. a certain amount of bullishness is good; buyers must step up, but i am always more comfortable climbing the wall of worry. but i will ride this advance as far as it can take me, but i suspect i will be leaving a lot of money on the table near important turning points. there's going to be some good vix opportunities as well