216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

i will go out on a limb today and predict spx closes above 2400 today.

[lawdog]

ISEE put call ratios show lots of put buying. it appears traders still think 2400 spx is going to turn the bulls away again. kind of doubt it. 

[lawdog]

This spx 2400 thing is the stupidest thing I have ever seen in the market. 

[lawdog]

If it craps out here, I'm going to be massively ticked.

[lawdog]

Finally. Morons.

[lawdog]

no great insights here. looking for some sign of bears' capitulating. if I see a low arms index around .50-.60, that will be one sign; also a day or two of excess call buying (though we are already showing signs of this).

 

the pattern has been to get a little overbought, take a breather for a few days , then move higher after the pause builds the bears' confidence. some bullish news event would be ideal, with fundamentalists getting a buy signal, which will spell doom shortly thereafter. the day you get a 15+ spx gap higher on opening and a arms index below.60, possibly coupled with good news should be the day to put your stops in and reduce your overnight positions.  know I could trade futures any hour of the day, but futures can lead so easily to 1) overtrading and 2) too much leverage. I just won't do it right now.

[lawdog]

okay bears, I will take you up on it. added back to get 65% long at 2399. you think you can sell anywhere around 2400 spx without risk. in the words of rocky balboa to killer lange, or whatever Mr T's character's name was, "Go for it."

[lawdog]

wimped out; sold down to 55% long plus still have silver etf, which is doing well. nothing noteworthy to observe right now.

[lawdog]

As I have said frequently the last few months, it is easy to sell and be short right now. It's difficult to sit on some good profits and leave those profits at risk at a time when you hear many voices calling for the market needing a rest, etc. I am going to do the hard thing and stay with my long positions. It would be much more comfortable just to close out for a while and look for another clear opportunity, but I don't think that is the right thing to do. The market wants to shake me out; not going to let it do so. I still think the NAZ will slow down and money will start flowing to spx soon.

[lawdog]

I don't understand how people can make predictions about things happening on such and such a date, or what is going to happen over the next 6 months, etc. Such statements don't seem to give much direction as to what the poster is actually doing or recommending. Usually the post just gets lost in time and there is no accounting for what was said or actually done. Predicting months into the future just seems dangerous. So many things can happen in the meantime, whether it be black swans, political events, etc. I see statements like, "We're looking to get short." Fine, but do you ever actually post real time when you get short on whatever it was you were going to short? I rarely see it. I remember several months ago a poster saying he was going to post real time his trades; it didn't work out so well and that didn't last long. A week ago it was something like "full moon, going to test 2360", or "We have an oil problem," (pretty much on the day oil turned around), "I think the market takes a breather here." All these statements but no owning it, no return to the post as to what went wrong or how to deal with the situation now. Maybe the posters are just trying to tease people to their sites and then give them the goods there.

 

With that said, when I see a post from Mark (oexchaos) I know I am going to see something worthwhile because there is usually a clear statement as to what he's thinking and doing, and he owns it, whatever the result. I can see his track record and know that if I am on the other side of what he is doing that I'm going to pay a little bit more attention. I don't see that from many others. To gain credibility you need to be clear as to what you are saying, let us know what you are actually doing, and then follow up.

 

I'm guessing that there are many out there who might have a lot to share but for any number of reasons don't want to post, which is fine. I have read here a lot of erudite stuff which demonstrates a lot of knowledge that I am not privy to, but it is usually no help in deciding what to do right now. I am always looking around, reading tweets and articles, etc. looking for some information or insight that will help me. I used to follow Mr Dev quite closely but now he reads like Nostradamus: he can be interpreted any way you want. Very cryptic these days, so I read his tweets and can rarely make heads or tails of them.

 

There is no shame in being wrong, taking losses, reversing your position. There is shame in not owning it. The only way you gain credibility is by being credible, i.e. clearly stating what your trade ideas are, some reasons for it, and then following up. Mark is a credible poster because he does those things, so I will always read his posts and evaluate what he is saying against what I am doing and saying. Many others, not so much. I would just like to see people own up to what they are saying and then let us know if what they are saying bears any resemblance to something they are doing, and then follow up on what they did. So much is grandstanding, making bold predictions that might get some attention, but when it doesn't work out, it doesn't matter, because another bold statement can be made in the near future.

 

As for me right now, I hold my 55% long plus some silver. I don't have a lot of reason for being long other than rolling with the tide. Indicators are getting stretched. We are certainly not coming off a major bottom with the current rally, so the chance of a reversal is still significant. I will probably stay with this until some really negative action costs me some serious money, thereby forcing me out.