216 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

I'm on my way to Asia...

 

See you next week.

 

Good Luck.

[SemiBizz]

I closed all my ETF positions on that last dip...

 

Just holding some cheap OTM options positions...

 

Beer money level

 

Have a great weekend.

[lawdog]

Don't know what that little 9 point dip that came out of nowhere was all about. Maybe something crossed the wire or maybe "they" were trying to shake us out again. (Do "they" really exist? Probably not. I'm not one much for conspiracy theories, but what do I know about that sort of thing? Nothing. Maybe there really are powerful forces that most of us unaware of, that have the power to manipulate markets. Speaking of which, have not heard for weeks from you-know-who.) In any event, the averages have recovered and my qld's are actually up on the day. So far my Tuesday sale and Weds buyback of the qld's has worked out. The bears, as usual, didn't get much out of that Apple revenue miss. My condolences to the bears, and I mean that. I have seen what looked like excellent bear setups and if you didn't catch them intraday, you got very little out of the declines in recent months.

 

Nothing noteworthy to observe. I am just counting on a continuation of the rally that started a few weeks ago, and believe that rally has not fully played out. We are fighting resistance at all time highs in the dow and spx, and if we can clear out the supply at those numbers, we might get some new highs in the 2430 range in the spx before the market takes a breather. As I wrote in a recent post, looking back on the past 15 months, I have made money being long, not being short, so even though I don't believe the mkt is a screaming buy like it was last year, it is still worth the benefit of the doubt and should be able to advance enough to become overbought on an intermediate term basis, which would be my exit point. 

[lawdog]

I'm sure there are many here who know what I mean when I use anachronisms like "crossed the wire." Betrays my age. I referenced "bucket shops" in one prior post, but believe me, I just read about them in Livermore's book; I wasn't there. That book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, was a great read. What is sobering is that Livermore made and lost fortunes several times. Worse, I guess he killed himself.  I have become a more conservative investor, and, borrowing another term from Livermore's book, I am no longer a "plunger." Wikipedia says he had $100 million following the 1929 crash, and that was back in the day when $100 million was a lot of money. (I say that in jest.)

[lawdog]

Market keeps suffering these little selling squalls, then recovers. Just shows how hard it is to be a bear. 

 

ISEE call put ratios that I referred to yesterday as showing a lot of caution and bearishness continue to look the same way today. I think we have people positioning themselves for the payroll report. I think that report is becoming less important and will not be moving that market much any more. Fundamental indicators have their day and then go out of fashion. 30 years ago it was the money supply numbers on Thursday; then it became the inflation numbers; now it's the payroll numbers everyone waits for and the fed minutes. At this point, even if you were to know what those numbers are going to be, I'll bet it wouldn't help you make money tomorrow. Worrying about those things is an exercise in futility. You need to gauge the condition of the market and where you want to be and let those market-moving reports come and go. Sometimes they help, sometimes not, but in the end, trying to game them will probably cost you over time. 

[lawdog]

Try as they could, the bears just couldn't get any traction today. That ISEE option ratio suggests option players got very beared up today. Usually they are wrong when they are that extreme, but not always. In any event, my gut reaction to the trading is this: 1) the bears just can't put this market down, probably too much liquidity and people want to own the stock market; 2) there was some selling by traders in advance of the payroll numbers, but I think they are fighting the last war and I expect the response to the numbers will be underwhelming, upon which the market will be left to its own devices and freed up from some of these immediate fundamental issues. If the market were to gap down on the payroll number, it would probably be a gift to those who want to get more exposed on the long side, which could be me.

[lawdog]

Not a bad day for the bulls. Looks like we have a shot at breaking 2400 and 21000. As I posted earlier this week, I think there has been a lot of selling on fear of these round numbers. If we don't make it today, I see next week as a good week to break through. After fairly strong moves up the prior two weeks, I had anticipated a down or flat week. It looks like we will still have modest gains, which I feel good about. Once the traders see they cannot defend 2400 spx, we should be able to break through decisively. 

[lawdog]

Can you believe this idiocy? the dow is stuck .20 pts below 21k. Now it has broken thru; bet it closes below. same for spx.

[lawdog]

Hallelujah! 21k is behind us. I don't even care about 2400 on spx right now. New closing highs as well across the board I think. We will see over the weekend how things look for next week. I think we have cleared out a lot of supply and should be able to move up a few hundreds points more in the djia and get to 2430-2450 on spx soon. 

[lawdog]

the market should continue higher from here without looking back much more than some acrophobic selling on monday. (One caveat: could this Friday's pm surge to new highs be the inverse of the decline 3 weeks ago during the NOKO "crisis"? Just a thought.)

 

If we creep higher, pullbacks will not be playable for bears. if we were to get a jump early in the week, i would expect a short-term peak and consolidation for a few days, e.g. if spx were to hit 2430 by tuesday, i would take the gift and wait for a mild pullback. will there be some short opportunity? maybe so in 2-3 weeks or a few quickies here and there if things get overheated.

 

glad 21,000 is behind us; spx 2400 is not much resistance now.

 

i have only 45% of full investment of risk assets. longer-term indicators getting stretched and a swoon could come at any time, so i will be content with more modest returns. but as i have said many times, you can own the world on 15%, and when you play carefully for that 15, you will sometimes get 30%. i don't know if Livermore said it, but it's good to "sell down to the sleeping point." You don't have to get every tick out of the market; just get your share and let others have theirs. if you missed it this time, regroup and wait for your next opportunity.