216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

added some sso's; now 55% long. as I suspected, some acrophobia today. it's easy to short here, hard to buy. do the right thing.

[lawdog]

I have mentioned the isee put call ratios before, but the numbers are amazing; one would look at the ratios this morning and figure the mkt to be off at least 1%. maybe it will grow into it today, I don't know, but i will stay long for now.

[lawdog]

Psychology of the market is quite straightforward. When a mkt is making new highs, investors are fearful because they are in uncharted territory, and it's easier to feel comfortable with lower levels because they have been at those lower levels before, and are comfortable with lower levels. then once a market has peaked and is headed lower, it's easy to buy on the way down because, after all, we were higher before, so we will at least get back to the prior highs, so I will, at a minimum, break even, and probably make a lot of money because we always made new highs before. 

 

So when you find it hard to buy, that's when you buy, and when it is easy to buy, beware. Buy to the sound of drums; sell to the sound of trumpets. is it easy to add to my long position at spx 2398? of course not. 

[lawdog]

Do they really think they are going to successfully defend spx 2400? I don't think so. These round number shenanigans are a pain. NAZ has broken thru 6000 and now 6100 without looking, DJIA has broken thru 21,000 without near the problem faced at 20,000, but they will be darned if they will give up spx 2400. 

[lawdog]

I don't trade in metals much but I have bought some physical gold and some silver etf's the past 2 days. Knew a guy who had been buying Krugerrands since it became legal to own gold (can you believe that) and gold started trading on markets. In about 40 years he acquired close to 3,000 gold 1 oz. Krugerrands; kept them in his safe. Died at just the right time when gold was about $1800 oz, sold them all at that price in liquidating the estate; worth about $5.2 million on sale. Not a bad investment, although it didn't do him any good other than knowing he could sell some if he needed to, which he never did. He drove a 20-yr old car, but that's part of the reason he could keep on buying Krugerrands!

[lawdog]

Keep it up bears. And I hope you are shorting the devil out of spx stocks at 2400. 

[lawdog]

Absolute madness. spx 2399.37. Morons.

[lawdog]

any who have followed me here know that I can change my position from long to short and vice versa rather suddenly. I am not changing now, but I have some misgivings. we often expect intermediate peaks to look all alike, but that would be too easy. based on past intermediate tops, we are not near being overbought, but I have a sense the market is going to pull a fast one on me here and top out without a big, beautiful oversold comdition. 

 

among other things, I've got to be very concerned about vix. Yes, I know, vix can be overbought (or oversold) for a long time; still I am worried about it. other things are out there. what if we fail here? if we do, that means we have a market that is so weak that it cannot become overbought. those are dangerous conditions. I am usually early on calling tops so I will remain patient, but only for so long. I was complaining about not getting thru spx 2400, but maybe that will prove an important barrier.

 

as I wrote above, I have a sense the market is going to turn tail on us here. I imagine I will be reducing my positions tomorrow; how far, only tomorrow will tell.this year has been so much mire difficult than last year, although we did have brexit and trump's election, which certainly caused concerns. really thinking about nibbling on some long vix, but I am not convinced the rally is finished, which means vix probably goes lower. my uncertainty demands a reduced position. 

[Rich C]

Hi LD!  I got out as we neared the current level, about 2 weeks ago, and I've been watching since then.  One of my concerns is a possible double top at 2400, going back to late Feb.  Earnings are good, and the market is stuck.  Over 85% of S&P has reported, what's going to happen when the good earnings news stops on a daily basis?  I've been doing a little bottom fishing in the oils that pay dividends, plan to hold those till oil recovers.  If the market moves above 2400 and stays, I will do some slow buying of SPY and try to sell when the rally tops out.

[lawdog]

sold down to 45%; not bearish but just cautious right now.