475 replies to this topic

[dougie]

 

First posted this a year ago

[Russ]

What a total disaster these mining stocks are

All kinds of newsletter writers were calling the final low this week. And I admit I thought this was he breakout

But it looks like it is back to the original theory of the mining sector needing a total washout spike low before a new bull trend can start


Next pei cycle date is November 18. Maybe that is the major low

this sell off which I predicted pretty much to the day has just strengthened my signal for a high in Oct/Nov for gold and gold stocks, each pullback over the past few months has less force is what is shown on my oscillator.

[jabat]

 

From Rick's Picks - Saturday Aug. 5th.

How August Eclipses Could Seal Bull Market’s Fate

Posted Thursday, August 3 0 comments

Following is a particularly interesting item from a Rick’s Picks forum regular who goes by the name ‘Seneca’.  His latest post, which concerns the effect of solar and lunar cycles on the markets, deserves a wider audience than it would ordinarily get in my forum. The material he quotes is from the work of Stephen J. Puetz, a cycles theorist who is highly respected and particularly well known to stock market traders and chartists. What Puetz had to say back in 1995 should perk up the ears of anyone wary about the risks the bull market will face as it enters the oft-fraught month of August:

“Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000.

“. . .[Puetz] used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.

“2017, the penumbral lunar eclipse on February 10-11 comes one fortnight before the annular solar eclipse of February 26, this was the ’03/01/2017 Brady Turn Date’ and the internal market high, which can be seen in an array of breadth and volume models. The ‘partial’ lunar eclipse on August 7 occurs before the total solar eclipse of August 21. The three-day high chart states the ‘Lack of Buying’ in the last few months.

“Bear Markets do not start on selling, they begin on a ‘lack of buying.’ “

[gannman]

from looking at the charts i was thinnking we might correct here into aug 21. being it is an eclipse and also a astrological sign change 

 

markets tend to change directions around astro sing changes. as far as a crash i have no opinion i am really referring to the gold market

 

and the gold stocks. we will see i dont know it is just one of a multitude of possibilites

[dharma]

 

The volume on miners like Alamos is so dramatically higher than it was even during the last big bull...

What to make of that?

fwiw, my take is many of the miners are under accumulation that is why volume has stepped up. those that report bad earnings are taken to the woodshed so the holders run and the large forces accumulate. its a process when its done there will be price appreciation.  eg when east indians buy gold they dont care so much about price(its a different psychology than here where we try to buy on the cheap) there its a matter of having gold when i went to india the 1st time in 80 there were 8rupes to the dollarnow its 43 or so.  over greater time the more it has collapsed.  the banksters are like the indians. they operate on long time frames.  if gold gets below 1k it wont be there for long, some fancy named new program will be introduced. buzz light year to infinity and beyond!!!!! 

just my 2c  which wont even buy a cup of joe

dharma

Edited by dharma, 06 August 2017 - 09:38 PM.

[dharma]

historically, from 1971through today, when the us dollar index declines by 10%or more during a period of 151 trading days, gold has gained by a median of 18.7% over the following 12 months

 

dharma

[senorBS]

historically, from 1971through today, when the us dollar index declines by 10%or more during a period of 151 trading days, gold has gained by a median of 18.7% over the following 12 months

 

dharma

interesting, Dharma was there an average "when" the rally began? was it during that 151 day window or right after? and if during was there a usual time frame (like it began at the 135th day)

 

Senor

[dharma]

 

historically, from 1971through today, when the us dollar index declines by 10%or more during a period of 151 trading days, gold has gained by a median of 18.7% over the following 12 months

 

dharma

interesting, Dharma was there an average "when" the rally began? was it during that 151 day window or right after? and if during was there a usual time frame (like it began at the 135th day)

 

Senor

 

Lior Gantz-

 

Lior suggests that gold has a tendency, going back to the 1970s, to rally by more than 15% in the twelve months following a 10% USDX meltdown.    https://gracelandupd...017aug7usd2.png

Edited by dharma, 07 August 2017 - 05:04 PM.

[gismeu]

Looking good here,

Daily cycle now put in a bottom,
And with weekly and monthly still in up mode,
We should see 1276 for sure and 1289 (Dec contract)
well, I think, it is coming this or next week.

not trading advice, gis

[gannman]

I just like the dollar chart as far as gld is concerned

I keep buying the physical gld has a long way to go